Model captures decision-making under bounded rationality with prior beliefs and market feedback.
problem Bounded rationality in decision-making with limited processing abilities.
method Maximum entropy principle applied to Quantal Response Statistical Equilibrium framework.
result Prior beliefs influence decision-making, altering the outcome of market feedback.
A significant theoretical advantage of search-and-score methods for learning Bayesian Networks is that they can accept informative prior beliefs for each possible network, thus complementing the data. In this paper, a method is presented for assigning priors based on beliefs on the presence or absence of certain paths …
A method for eliciting expert beliefs using preferential questions and normalizing flows.
problem Eliciting high-dimensional probability distributions from noisy judgments.
method Normalizing flows based on preferential questions with a novel functional prior.
result The method allows for the inference of arbitrarily flexible densities from preferential judgments.
Deep belief networks are a powerful way to model complex probability distributions. However, learning the structure of a belief network, particularly one with hidden units, is difficult. The Indian buffet process has been used as a nonparametric Bayesian prior on the directed structure of a belief network with a single…
Study on decision-making cascades with agents having varying beliefs and noise levels.
problem Optimizing decision-making in a cascade of agents with heterogeneous beliefs and noise.
method Recursive belief update and analysis of optimal decision rules, predecessor selection problem characterization.
result Optimal decisions can deviate from true prior beliefs in certain conditions, highlighting the importance of social learning.
ColaBO accelerates optimization with user beliefs.
problem Optimizing expensive functions with limited prior knowledge.
method General Bayesian framework for incorporating user beliefs.
result Significant optimization acceleration with accurate prior information.
New framework analyzes belief evolution in social networks.
problem Analyzing belief evolution in social networks.
method Proposes a new theoretical framework using Markov chain theory for horizontal and vertical transmission.
result Homophily-based networks do not converge to a single set of beliefs.
Bayes factors and relative belief ratios are compared as measures of statistical evidence.
problem Which measure of evidence is more appropriate: Bayes factors or relative belief ratios?
method Comparison of Bayes factors and relative belief ratios, considering properties and restrictions.
result Relative belief ratio has better properties as a measure of evidence.
Mathematical framework for cooperative communication explains belief transmission.
problem Lack of understanding why cooperation enables effective belief transmission.
method Connection to optimal transport theory, deriving prior models, statistical interpretations, proofs of robustness and instability.
result Cooperative communication provably enables effective, robust belief transmission.
In this paper, we present a multi-period trading model by assuming that traders face not only asymmetric information but also heterogenous prior beliefs, under the requirement that the insider publicly disclose his stock trades after the fact. We show that there is an equilibrium in which the irrational insider camoufl…
πBO augments BO with user beliefs for better hyperparameter optimization.
problem BO ignores user beliefs, reducing its appeal to practitioners.
method Proposes πBO, an acquisition function that incorporates user-provided prior beliefs. result πBO outperforms competing approaches and deep learning tasks. This paper presents a Bayesian image segmentation model based on Potts prior and loopy belief propagation. The proposed Bayesian model involves several terms, including the pairwise interactions of Potts models, and the average vectors and covariant matrices of Gauss distributions in color image modeling. These terms a…
A new framework for adaptive behavior using reusable value profiles.
problem Adaptive behavior in changing environments requires switching among value-control regimes, but maintaining separate parameters for each situation is impractical.
method Introduces value profiles: reusable bundles of parameters assigned to hidden states, allowing for state-conditional strategy recruitment without independent parameters for each context.
result Profile-based models outperform simpler alternatives in probabilistic reversal learning, suggesting belief-dependent control of adaptive behavior.
New method learns priors for Bayesian neural networks from datasets.
problem Lack of prior beliefs in Bayesian deep learning.
method Amortised variational inference to learn priors from datasets.
result Flexible Bayesian neural networks for meta-learning and within-task minibatching.
Unified deep learning from noisy crowds using BP and MF.
problem Inference and learning from noisy crowdsourced data.
method Neural-powered Bayesian framework with deepMF and deepBP.
result deepBP is more robust against wrong priors and feature overfitting.
A technique called 'prior laundering' uses legacy reconstructions to create uncertainty in Bayesian inverse problems.
problem Uncertainty in Bayesian inverse problems when data is uninformative.
method Using an archive of legacy reconstructions to create uncertainty in the posterior distribution, averaging the legacy posterior over measurements.
result The uncertainty reported in the posterior is inherited from the legacy reconstructions, not from the data itself.
This work introduces a new regularization method that improves sparsity and generalization.
problem Improving sparsity and generalization in machine learning models.
method Formulates a dynamic regularizer with an informative prior to improve sparsity.
result The proposed regularizer shows better results in inducing sparsity and improving generalization compared to existing methods.
New method learns belief representations for GAIL in POMDPs.
problem Imitation learning in partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs).
method Joint learning of belief module and policy with task-aware imitation loss and belief regularization.
result Our BMIL approach outperforms GAIL and task-agnostic belief learning.
In this paper we present decomposable priors, a family of priors over structure and parameters of tree belief nets for which Bayesian learning with complete observations is tractable, in the sense that the posterior is also decomposable and can be completely determined analytically in polynomial time. This follows from…
Proposes ECS-DBN for cost-sensitive deep belief network in imbalanced classification.
problem Imbalanced data classification with unequal misclassification costs.
method ECS-DBN uses adaptive differential evolution to optimize misclassification costs based on training data.
result ECS-DBN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods on benchmark and real-world datasets.
Unified approach for learning with weak labels across various tasks.
problem Learning with noisy or incomplete labels in diverse machine learning settings.
method Implicit posterior models for joint label inference.
result Unified training objective for various machine learning tasks.
The paper optimizes trading strategies for assets modeled by a randomized Brownian bridge.
problem Optimizing trading strategies for assets with uninformative noise and unknown terminal prices.
method Modeling asset price evolution with an exponential randomized Brownian bridge and solving for optimal trading strategies numerically.
result Disconnected continuation/exercise regions appear under certain prior distributions.
Unified Bayesian model explains in-context learning and activation steering in LLMs.
problem Understanding and controlling the behavior of large language models (LLMs) through prompts and activations.
method Developed a Bayesian model to explain and predict the effects of in-context learning and activation steering.
result Unified model predicts distinct phases and sudden shifts in LLM behavior, explaining prior empirical phenomena.
Bayesian methods suffer from the problem of how to specify prior beliefs. One interesting idea is to consider worst-case priors. This requires solving a stochastic zero-sum game. In this paper, we extend well-known results from bandit theory in order to discover minimax-Bayes policies and discuss when they are practica…
ACVAEs improve on CVAEs by learning more flexible latent correlations.
problem Learning latent representations with correlated structure.
method Adaptive prior distribution and belief propagation.
result ACVAEs outperform CVAEs in link prediction and hierarchical clustering.
GEnBP combines EnKF and GaBP for efficient high-dimensional inference.
problem Efficient inference in high-dimensional models.
method Gaussian Ensemble Belief Propagation algorithm combining EnKF and GaBP.
result GEnBP outperforms existing methods in accuracy and efficiency.
Efficiently learns deep factor graphs using Gaussian belief propagation.
problem Learning in deep factor graphs with efficient inference.
method Treats all relevant quantities as random variables, uses belief propagation for inference.
result Efficiently solves training and prediction problems in deep factor graphs with belief propagation.
This study models FOMC policy decisions using debate-based LLMs.
problem Accurately predicting central bank policy decisions, especially FOMC's, is challenging.
method A novel framework that simulates FOMC's collective decision-making process through iterative rounds of LLMs interacting as agents.
result The debate-based approach significantly outperforms standard LLMs in prediction accuracy.
Cold posteriors improve Bayesian neural networks by reducing overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Overestimation of aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks.
method Tuning the temperature of the posterior on a validation set.
result Reducing temperature leads to better reflection of true prior beliefs.
Meta RL learns task structure from experience.
problem Designing efficient reinforcement learning algorithms.
method Separately learns policy and task belief using privileged information.
result Effective at solving complex meta-RL environments.
We consider learning on graphs, guided by kernels that encode similarity between vertices. Our focus is on random walk kernels, the analogues of squared exponential kernels in Euclidean spaces. We show that on large, locally treelike, graphs these have some counter-intuitive properties, specifically in the limit of lar…
Bayesian priors for neural networks are improved by incorporating weight correlations and tail behavior.
problem Improving Bayesian priors for neural networks to better reflect true beliefs and performance.
method Analyzed summary statistics of neural network weights in different architectures and incorporated these observations into new priors.
result Improved performance on image classification datasets by using new priors that account for weight correlations and tail behavior.
Hi-fi priors enhance BNNs by learning flexible activations.
problem Challenging to impose function-space priors on BNNs.
method Optimization techniques to learn flexible activations.
result BNNs with flexible activations can achieve desired priors.
The study proves necessary conditions for robust decision-making in uncertain environments.
problem Conditions for robust decision-making in uncertain environments.
method Quantitative selection theorems and binary betting decisions.
result World models, belief-like memory, and persistent variables are necessary for strong task performance.
New theorems show agents need specific internal structures to perform well under uncertainty.
problem How do agents need to be structured to perform well under uncertainty?
method Proved selection theorems showing strong task performance forces specific internal structures.
result Strong task performance forces world models, belief-like memory, and persistent regime-tracking variables.
We study a problem of finding an optimal stopping strategy to liquidate an asset with unknown drift. Taking a Bayesian approach, we model the initial beliefs of an individual about the drift parameter by allowing an arbitrary probability distribution to characterise the uncertainty about the drift parameter. Filtering …
Extends Gaussian Process regression for handling multiple prior distributions.
problem Handling multiple prior distributions in Bayesian Machine Learning models.
method Mixtures of Gaussian Processes with analytical and Sparse Variational approaches.
result Effective in accounting for prior misspecification in functional regression problems.
Study compares time series classification algorithms using simulated data.
problem Understanding why some TSC algorithms outperform others.
method Design and implement simulators for five feature spaces, observe classifier performance.
result Ensemble methods often outperform single algorithms, especially when data representation is unknown.
Pre-training improves Bayesian optimization efficiency.
problem Optimizing complex machine learning models with hyperparameters.
method Pre-training a tighter Gaussian process prior from similar functions.
result 3 times more efficient hyperparameter tuning on average.
We analyze a model of learning and belief formation in networks in which agents follow Bayes rule yet they do not recall their history of past observations and cannot reason about how other agents' beliefs are formed. They do so by making rational inferences about their observations which include a sequence of independ…
Exemplar-based clustering methods have been shown to produce state-of-the-art results on a number of synthetic and real-world clustering problems. They are appealing because they offer computational benefits over latent-mean models and can handle arbitrary pairwise similarity measures between data points. However, when…
BNNpriors library improves Bayesian neural network inference with various prior distributions.
problem Challenges in choosing good prior distributions for Bayesian neural networks.
method State-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference with a wide range of predefined priors.
result Facilitates foundational discoveries on the nature of the cold posterior effect.
Unified algorithm for incorporating various prior knowledge in multiple testing.
problem Improving power and precision in multiple testing procedures with prior knowledge.
method p-filter algorithm that incorporates four types of prior knowledge: null hypotheses, penalties, groups, and independence.
result Unified framework allows for recovery of various known algorithms.
Chance-constrained ActInf allows for small violations of constraints to drive goal-directed behavior.
problem Goal-directed behavior constrained by prior beliefs.
method Introducing chance constraints to ActInf, allowing for small violations of constraints.
result Chance-constrained ActInf allows for a trade-off between robust control and chance constraint violation.
Improves AI-prior reliability for Bayesian inference.
problem Error propagation from predictive models into posterior inference.
method Rectified AI-informed prior elicitation framework.
result Significant reduction in bias and improvement in predictive performance.
New method reduces over-pessimism in Bayesian control under parameter uncertainty.
problem Over-pessimism in Bayesian control due to misspecified priors.
method Distributionally robust Bayesian control (DRBC) with strong duality and optimization.
result Validated algorithm on synthetic and real data, reducing over-pessimism.
The Gibbs algorithm's generalization error is bounded, improving with prior volume in low temperatures.
problem Bounding the generalization error of the Gibbs algorithm in low temperature regimes.
method Analyzes the Gibbs algorithm's performance, extending known high-temperature bounds to low-temperature scenarios.
result With high probability, the generalization error decreases with the total prior volume of similar hypotheses.
DPPS uses DP priors for Bayesian non-parametric multi-arm bandits.
problem Optimizing multi-arm bandit environments with prior beliefs.
method Bayesian non-parametric algorithm based on Dirichlet Process priors.
result DPPS provides principled incorporation of prior beliefs and is optimal in Bayesian regret setup.