This paper considers possible price paths of a financial security in an idealized market. Its main result is that the variation index of typical price paths is at most 2, in this sense, typical price paths are not rougher than typical paths of Brownian motion. We do not make any stochastic assumptions and only assume t…
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48 results for “Price paths”
The paper develops methods to price and hedge options in path-dependent stock models.
problem Pricing and hedging options under complex stock models.
method Develops a path-dependent PDE for option pricing and differentiability of path-dependent SDE solutions.
result Provides formulas for option Greeks and differentiability of path-dependent SDE solutions.
Path Integral Method for Proportional Step and Proportional Double-Barrier Step Option Pricingq-fin.PR
Path integral method calculates barrier option prices.
problem Barrier option pricing in finance.
method Path integral method applied to trapezoid and square potential barriers.
result Analytical expressions for option pricing derived.
Path integral method calculates PDBS option prices with time-dependent parameters.
problem Pricing proportional double-barrier step options with time-dependent interest rates and volatilities.
method Path integral method applied to a quantum mechanical analogy of barrier options.
result Derivation of pricing kernel for PDBS options with time-dependent parameters.
Paper proposes method for generating paths of stochastic volatility CGMY process for option pricing.
problem Generating accurate sample paths for stochastic volatility models for option pricing.
method Monte-Carlo method for European and American options, least square regression for calibration.
result Calibrated model parameters to S\&P 100 index options market using path-dependent options.
Improved particle pricing methods for path-dependent options.
problem Efficient simulation of spot price and volatility for path-dependent options.
method Sequential Monte Carlo with branching and resampling.
result Branching algorithms improve pricing performance for path-dependent options.
Signature payoffs price complex derivatives accurately.
problem Pricing complex derivatives like options.
method Signature of price path for continuous payoffs.
result Signature payoffs can price various derivatives accurately.
The article calculates the most-likely path for Asian option pricing in local volatility models.
problem Approximating the price of Asian options in local volatility models.
method Path-integral approach using Brownian bridge and Laplace asymptotic formula.
result The most-likely path (MLP) is found to approximate the option price in the limit of small sampling time.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
problem Modeling price and storage dynamics in natural gas markets with path-dependent volatility.
method Developed a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model and used deep learning for swing option pricing.
result Proposed a deep learning method for numerical approximations of swing option pricing.
A Path Integral Approach for Time-Dependent Hamiltonians with Applications to Derivatives Pricingq-fin.CP
Improved path integral method for financial derivatives pricing.
problem Analytical intractability of financial derivative pricing models.
method Generalized semi-classical path integral approach to time-dependent Hamiltonians.
result Accuracy and computational efficiency of the path integral approach for derivatives pricing.
The paper proves that certain price paths with jumps have consistent quadratic variation.
problem Understanding the quadratic variation of price paths with jumps in financial models.
method Proving the quadratic variation is consistent across different partitions of time.
result The quadratic variation of model-free price paths with mild jumps is consistent and independent of partitions.
Pricing Exotic Options in a Path Integral Approachcond-mat.other
In the framework of Black-Scholes-Merton model of financial derivatives, a path integral approach to option pricing is presented. A general formula to price European path dependent options on multidimensional assets is obtained and implemented by means of various flexible and efficient algorithms. As an example, we det…
Model for stock prices using non-Gaussian path integral.
problem Fit stock price dynamics with a small number of parameters.
method Generalized Ilinski's path integral model with a different action.
result Provides excellent fits for stock prices and indices.
A new method for pricing and hedging options without using probability theory.
problem Pricing and hedging financial options using traditional probability methods.
method Using rough paths to encode volatility and enhance price trajectories for pathwise replication.
result A robust hedging strategy that is less sensitive to model misspecification.
The paper provides an efficient method to price path-dependent derivatives using multiscale stochastic volatility models.
problem Pricing path-dependent derivatives under multiscale stochastic volatility models.
method Derives a Malliavin representation for the first-order approximation of the price of path-dependent derivatives.
result An efficient Monte Carlo approximation for pricing path-dependent derivatives is derived.
A deep learning approach for pricing convertible bonds with path-dependent reset and call provisionsq-fin.PR
Deep learning models price convertible bonds with complex reset and call features.
problem Pricing convertible bonds with path-dependent reset and call provisions.
method Formulated as a PPDE, deep learning approximates conditional expectations.
result Deep learning produces stable and accurate prices across various model specifications.
New method generates realistic financial price paths with drawdowns.
problem Lack of realistic drawdown scenarios in financial simulations.
method Variational autoencoder with drawdown reconstruction loss and path signatures.
result Simulated paths closely match empirical drawdown data.
We use Karhunen-Loève expansion for efficient pricing of exotic derivatives.
problem Efficient pricing of path-dependent options.
method Karhunen-Loève expansion and Monte Carlo simulation.
result Fast and accurate computation of exotic derivatives pricing.
Extends BBSM model to incorporate ESG ratings and path dynamics.
problem Price stock options considering historical market index dynamics and ESG ratings.
method Develops discrete, binary tree option pricing model under BBSM with ESG valuation.
result Model accurately fits stock price changes and European call option prices.
Path Shadowing Monte-Carloq-fin.MF
A new method predicts future paths using a Monte-Carlo approach.
problem Predicting future financial paths given historical data.
method Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method using maximum entropy model.
result Yields state-of-the-art predictions for future volatility and option smiles.
New method uses LSTM and signature theory to solve complex financial PDEs.
problem Solving path-dependent PDEs for financial derivatives pricing.
method Combining LSTM networks and rough paths theory.
result Efficient algorithms for pricing and hedging path-dependent derivatives.
Path probability of stochastic motion: A functional approachcond-mat.stat-mech
Functional approach calculates path probabilities in stochastic motion.
problem Calculating path probabilities in stochastic motion.
method Functional technique applied to derive path probability distribution.
result General formula derived for path probability distribution.
Path Integral and Asset Pricingq-fin.MF
We give a pragmatic/pedagogical discussion of using Euclidean path integral in asset pricing. We then illustrate the path integral approach on short-rate models. By understanding the change of path integral measure in the Vasicek/Hull-White model, we can apply the same techniques to "less-tractable" models such as the …
Gamma Hedging and Rough Pathsq-fin.MF
Study of gamma-hedging using rough paths for European and exotic options.
problem Applying rough paths to gamma-hedging strategies for derivatives.
method Rough-path theory applied to discrete-time gamma-hedging strategy.
result Sure replication of European and exotic derivatives under regular pricing signals.
In this paper I develop a new computational method for pricing path dependent options. Using the path integral representation of the option price, I show that in general it is possible to perform analytically a partial averaging over the underlying risk-neutral diffusion process. This result greatly eases the computati…
We derive a closed-form solution for the price of an average price as well as an average strike geometric Asian option, by making use of the path integral formulation. Our results are compared to a numerical Monte Carlo simulation. We also develop a pricing formula for an Asian option with a barrier on a control proces…
A Path Integral Way to Option Pricingcond-mat.stat-mech
An efficient computational algorithm to price financial derivatives is presented. It is based on a path integral formulation of the pricing problem. It is shown how the path integral approach can be worked out in order to obtain fast and accurate predictions for the value of a large class of options, including those wi…
Understanding the dual formulation for the hedging of path-dependent options with price impactmath.PR
New method for hedging path-dependent options with price impact using probabilistic arguments.
problem Hedging of path-dependent options with price impact.
method Dual formulation using probabilistic arguments, proving existence of perfect hedging portfolios.
result Existence of a perfect hedging portfolio for path-dependent options with price impact.
The paper predicts cryptocurrency prices using a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation.
problem Forecasting cryptocurrency prices with volatility and jumps.
method Merton's jump diffusion model with machine learning, traditional, and statistical methods.
result Introduced a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation for cryptocurrency price prediction.
Deep signature algorithm for pricing path-dependent options.
problem Pricing path-dependent options with complex payoff functions.
method Extended backward scheme for state-dependent FBSDEs with reflections, incorporating signature layer for path-dependent FBSDEs.
result Convergence analysis of the algorithm with explicit dependence on truncation order and neural network approximation errors.
For every adapted, càglàd process (strategy) and typical càdlàg price paths whose jumps satisfy some mild growth condition we define integral as a limit of simple integrals.
Pricing Derivatives by Path Integral and Neural Networkscond-mat.stat-mech
Recent progress in the development of efficient computational algorithms to price financial derivatives is summarized. A first algorithm is based on a path integral approach to option pricing, while a second algorithm makes use of a neural network parameterization of option prices. The accuracy of the two methods is es…
Novel signature approach for pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
problem Pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
method Signature approach, mean-quadratic variation criterion, non-standard infinite-dimensional Riccati equations, time-augmented signature, non-Markovian stochastic control problem.
result Effective hedging strategies in frictional markets with low-truncated signature approximations.
A new method for efficient option pricing using AR and MCS.
problem Infeasibility of pricing financial derivatives due to computational limitations.
method Multi-path option pricing approach via autoregression and Monte Carlo Simulations.
result Our approach is comparable to prior models in pricing weekly TAIEX options.
Estimates exotic option prices without a model using market data.
problem Pricing exotic derivatives without a model.
method Uses rough path signatures and implied expected signatures from market prices.
result Prices exotic derivatives using market data and implied expected signatures.
We consider idealized financial markets in which price paths of the traded securities are cadlag functions, imposing mild restrictions on the allowed size of jumps. We prove the existence of quadratic variation for typical price paths, where the qualification "typical" means that there is a trading strategy that risks …
Novel approach to financial derivatives pricing using rough path theory.
problem No-arbitrage conditions in financial markets necessitating precise integration methods.
method Developed a polynomial-based approximation class for rough path functionals, extending to non-geometric rough paths.
result Motivated a hypothesis for payoff functionals in financial markets, facilitating analysis.
In this paper, we give a numerical method for pricing long maturity, path dependent options by using the Markov property for each underlying asset. This enables us to approximate a path dependent option by using some kinds of plain vanillas. We give some examples whose underlying assets behave as some popular Levy proc…
Semi-analytic path integral solution of SABR and Heston equations: pricing Vanilla and Asian optionsq-fin.CP
A new method solves SABR and Heston equations for option pricing.
problem Solving SABR and Heston equations for option pricing.
method Semi-analytical method based on path integrals, integrating analytically one set and numerically the other using Monte-Carlo.
result Compact expressions for correlated stochastic variables, efficient for Vanilla and Asian options.
Study optimizes funding rates for cryptocurrency perpetual futures to maintain price alignment.
problem Maintaining alignment between perpetual future prices and target values in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed replicating portfolios and path-dependent funding rates using path-dependent infinite-horizon BSDEs and arbitrage pricing theory.
result Appropriate funding rate design can keep perpetual future prices aligned with target values.
New model predicts implied volatility using past asset price paths.
problem Forecasting implied volatility surfaces and asset prices.
method Proposes a new model using past asset price trajectories to predict implied volatility.
result Large part of implied volatility movements can be explained by past returns and squares.
Generative model improves intraday electricity price forecasting.
problem Intraday electricity price forecasting for improved trading strategies.
method Generative neural network model for probabilistic path forecasts.
result Generative model leads to higher profit gains than benchmark methods.
Computing the CEV option pricing formula using the semiclassical approximation of path integralq-fin.CP
New method speeds up CEV option pricing for small maturities.
problem High computational times for CEV option pricing, especially for small maturities.
method Semiclassical approximation of Feynman's path integral.
result The new method is efficient and accurate compared to standard CEV solution.
Path integral approach to the pricing of timer options with the Duru-Kleinert time transformationq-fin.PR
In this paper, a time substitution as used by Duru and Kleinert in their treatment of the hydrogen atom with path integrals is performed to price timer options under stochastic volatility models. We present general pricing formulas for both the perpetual timer call options and the finite time-horizon timer call options…
Derives FPDE for equity-linked insurance pricing.
problem Calculating prices for insurance policies with complex payment histories.
method Variational techniques in functional Itô calculus.
result Derives a functional partial differential equation.
A new method for stochastic integration using superhedging.
problem Existence of quadratic variation in stochastic processes.
method Using Vovk's outer measure to show the existence of quadratic variation for typical price paths.
result Developed a model-free Itô integration method based on robust quadratic variation.
Model predicts stock price dynamics using quantum gauge theory.
problem Predicting short-term stock price movements.
method Path integral model based on quantum gauge theory.
result Model accurately predicts stock price distributions.
Trading in Complex Networksq-fin.GN
The study examines price formation in complex networks and finds efficiency varies by network structure.
problem Understanding price formation and efficiency in complex networks.
method Price formation experiments with human subjects in large networks, agent-based model construction.
result Prices are higher and trade less efficient in small-world networks compared to random networks.