A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New criterion improves predictive evaluation in weighted inference scenarios.
Proposes a new hyperprior and predictive criterion for weakly informative hyperprior in relevance vector machine.
In the information-based paradigm of inference, model selection is performed by selecting the candidate model with the best estimated predictive performance. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the estimate of the predictive complexity. In the large-sample-size limit of a regular model, the predicti…
We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. When the data is generated from a finite order autoregression, the Bay…
Paper introduces NICc for fast cluster-based validation of prediction models.
Statistical inference is considered for variables of interest, called primary variables, when auxiliary variables are observed along with the primary variables. We consider the setting of incomplete data analysis, where some primary variables are not observed. Utilizing a parametric model of joint distribution of prima…
We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data modelling. The information criteria are Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the…
ITCA optimizes label combination for ambiguous outcomes in multi-class classification.
A new method for automatic gradient tree boosting using information theory.
A widely applicable Bayesian information criterion (Watanabe, 2013) is applicable for both regular and singular models in the model selection problem. This criterion tends to overestimate the log marginal likelihood. We identify an overestimating term of a widely applicable Bayesian information criterion. Adjustment of…
Random survival forests (RSF) are a powerful method for risk prediction of right-censored outcomes in biomedical research. RSF use the log-rank split criterion to form an ensemble of survival trees. The most common approach to evaluate the prediction accuracy of a RSF model is Harrell's concordance index for survival d…
A method removes treatment-covariate dependence for counterfactual prediction without adversarial training.
A framework to compare federated learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings.
Zellner (1988) modeled statistical inference in terms of information processing and postulated the Information Conservation Principle (ICP) between the input and output of the information processing block, showing that this yielded Bayesian inference as the optimum information processing rule. Recently, Alemi (2019) re…
Bayesian approach scores influential training examples for model predictions.
New rationalization method avoids spurious correlations.
SIC detects elbows in error curves automatically.
Neural networks have achieved dramatic improvements in recent years and depict the state-of-the-art methods for many real-world tasks nowadays. One drawback is, however, that many of these models are overparameterized, which makes them both computationally and memory intensive. Furthermore, overparameterization can als…
Study shows the corrected Akaike criterion is inadmissible for estimating Kullback-Leibler discrepancy.
Complete criterion for VoI in multi-decision influence diagrams established.
LS improves model selection for singular statistical models.
SplitWise enhances stepwise regression by adaptively encoding numeric predictors into binary features.
In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic exploration strategy for stochastic, discrete multi-armed bandits that achieves optimal regret. Our strategy is based on the value of information criterion. This criterion measures the trade-off between policy information and obtainable rewards. High amounts of policy …
Paper discusses prediction errors for penalized regressions using GAMP and LOOCV.
A new method calibrates value predictions in offline RL to improve reliability.
A new criterion selects models in overparameterized settings.
A criterion for training-free time-lagged spectral embeddings of multivariate time series
A new criterion HBIC improves model selection for factor analysis with missing data.
Bayes predictor remains robust to ignorable missingness shifts.
The Kelly Criterion is applied to prediction markets to analyze risk and return.
We investigate the prediction capability of the orthogonal greedy algorithm (OGA) in high-dimensional regression models with dependent observations. The rates of convergence of the prediction error of OGA are obtained under a variety of sparsity conditions. To prevent OGA from overfitting, we introduce a high-dimension…
Model discrimination identifies a mathematical model that usefully explains and predicts a given system's behaviour. Researchers will often have several models, i.e. hypotheses, about an underlying system mechanism, but insufficient experimental data to discriminate between the models, i.e. discard inaccurate models. G…
A group of transition probability functions form a Shannon's channel whereas a group of truth functions form a semantic channel. By the third kind of Bayes' theorem, we can directly convert a Shannon's channel into an optimized semantic channel. When a sample is not big enough, we can use a truth function with paramete…
Recent works investigated the generalization properties in deep neural networks (DNNs) by studying the Information Bottleneck in DNNs. However, the mea- surement of the mutual information (MI) is often inaccurate due to the density estimation. To address this issue, we propose to measure the dependency instead of MI be…
This paper introduces Kernel-based Information Criterion (KIC) for model selection in regression analysis. The novel kernel-based complexity measure in KIC efficiently computes the interdependency between parameters of the model using a variable-wise variance and yields selection of better, more robust regressors. Expe…
Finding relationships between multiple views of data is essential both for exploratory analysis and as pre-processing for predictive tasks. A prominent approach is to apply variants of Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), a classical method seeking correlated components between views. The basic CCA is restricted to ma…
The paper derives an equation linking WAIC and WBIC for singular models.
Paper proposes a new flatness measure for neural networks to improve generalization.
We have recently proposed a new information-based approach to model selection, the Frequentist Information Criterion (FIC), that reconciles information-based and frequentist inference. The purpose of this current paper is to provide a simple example of the application of this criterion and a demonstration of the natura…
There are three principle paradigms of statistical inference: (i) Bayesian, (ii) information-based and (iii) frequentist inference. We describe an objective prior (the weighting or -prior) which unifies objective Bayes and information-based inference. The -prior is chosen to make the marginal probability an unbia…
This paper addresses the problem of active learning of a multi-output Gaussian process (MOGP) model representing multiple types of coexisting correlated environmental phenomena. In contrast to existing works, our active learning problem involves selecting not just the most informative sampling locations to be observed …
When creating an outfit, style is a criterion in selecting each fashion item. This means that style can be regarded as a feature of the overall outfit. However, in various previous studies on outfit generation, there have been few methods focusing on global information obtained from an outfit. To address this deficienc…
We consider the problem of performing matrix completion with side information on row-by-row and column-by-column similarities. We build upon recent proposals for matrix estimation with smoothness constraints with respect to row and column graphs. We present a novel iterative procedure for directly minimizing an informa…
Proposes a new criterion for reliable uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
New method identifies wrongly predicted samples for active learning.
When the in-sample Sharpe ratio is obtained by optimizing over a k-dimensional parameter space, it is a biased estimator for what can be expected on unseen data (out-of-sample). We derive (1) an unbiased estimator adjusting for both sources of bias: noise fit and estimation error. We then show (2) how to use the adjust…
Study optimizes fairness in predictive models by balancing utility and separation.