Two novel approaches improve prediction with Clusterwise Linear Regression.
problem Predicting cluster labels for unseen test points in CLR.
method Two novel approaches: Predictive CLR and Constrained CLR.
result Both approaches significantly improve over known CLR-based regression methods.
Proposes CLRS-Text, a new benchmark for evaluating LM reasoning capabilities.
problem Lack of transferable benchmarks for evaluating reasoning capabilities of language models.
method Developed a textual version of the CLRS benchmark, generating diverse algorithmic tasks.
result Demonstrates a novel challenge for the LM reasoning community and validates prior work.
Proposes CLRS benchmark to evaluate algorithmic reasoning.
problem Difficulty in transferring results across publications due to targeted algorithmic data.
method Develops a comprehensive benchmark covering various algorithmic tasks.
result Demonstrates performance of algorithmic reasoning baselines on the CLRS benchmark.
Cluster-wise linear regression (CLR), a clustering problem intertwined with regression, is to find clusters of entities such that the overall sum of squared errors from regressions performed over these clusters is minimized, where each cluster may have different variances. We generalize the CLR problem by allowing each…
Donor-aware scRNA-seq benchmarks improve classification accuracy in inflammatory bowel disease.
problem Influenza disease classification from scRNA-seq data is prone to donor-level confounding.
method Developed and evaluated three feature representations across two IBD cohorts.
result Compartment-stratified CLR composition and GatedStructuralCFN embeddings outperform linear models in classification accuracy.
Enhances neural architecture search efficiency and prevents performance collapse.
problem Improving memory efficiency and preventing performance collapse in neural architecture search.
method Employing continuous relaxation strategy and gradient-based optimization for over-parameterized BCNN construction, introducing Confident Learning Rate and partial channel connections.
result NAS-v2 delivers state-of-the-art search efficiency on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet.
Generalist neural learner can execute multiple algorithms.
problem Building models that can execute multiple algorithms.
method Single graph neural network processor, incorporating knowledge from specialist models.
result Generalist learner can execute multiple algorithms with improved performance.
Characterizes corridors in loss surfaces for gradient-based optimization.
problem Understanding and mitigating training instabilities in gradient-based optimization.
method Characterizes corridors as regions where gradient descent and gradient flow trajectories are linearly related.
result Corridors indicate regions without implicit regularization effects, leading to better learning rate adaptation schemes.
LibAUC optimizes X-risks for AI tasks like CID, LTR, and CLR.
problem Optimizing risk functions in AI for tasks like classification, ranking, and representation learning.
method Developed a new mini-batch pipeline for deep X-risk optimization (DXO) algorithms.
result Achieved great success in solving CID, LTR, and CLR tasks with faster convergence and scalable performance.
New algorithms improve sampling from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from distributions with convex outside and nonconvex inside.
method Overdamped and underdamped Langevin MCMC methods.
result Upper bounds on the number of steps for sampling accuracy.
Graph Neural Networks align with dynamic programming, improving algorithmic reasoning.
problem Demonstrate and quantify alignment between GNNs and dynamic programming.
method Category theory and abstract algebra methods to expose intricate connection.
result Showed GNNs align with dynamic programming beyond individual algorithms.
Researchers analyze and improve latent space in NAR models.
problem Latent space resolution and range issues in NAR models.
method Detailed analysis of GNN latent space structure, proposing and testing solutions.
result Improvements in majority of algorithms on CLRS-30 benchmark.
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
Paper defines predictive multiplicity and measures its severity in classification problems.
problem Challenges in machine learning due to competing models with conflicting predictions.
method Formal measures and integer programming tools for linear classification problems.
result Real-world datasets may admit competing models with wildly conflicting predictions.
A novel continual prediction model outperforms traditional one-time models in predicting AKI.
problem Optimally predicting AKI before it develops during a hospital stay.
method A novel continual prediction model that predicts AKI every time a patient's AKI-relevant variable changes in the EHR.
result The continual prediction model outperformed traditional one-time models, achieving a higher AUC of 0.724 compared to 0.653.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.
Two new methods improve efficiency of conformal predictive systems.
problem Efficiency of conformal predictive systems in regression problems.
method Split conformal predictive systems and cross-conformal predictive systems.
result Cross-conformal predictive systems are more efficient but not guaranteed valid.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
The paper aggregates predictions from multiple undisclosed datasets using conformal prediction.
problem Making valid predictions from multiple non-disclosed datasets without data sharing.
method Each dataset uses a transductive conformal predictor independently, and predictions are aggregated.
result The method produces valid and less variable aggregated predictions.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
New adaptive conformal predictive systems developed.
problem Severe restrictions on adapting predictive distributions to test objects.
method Calibrating existing predictive systems to ensure full adaptability and validity.
result Developed fully adaptive split-conformal and cross-conformal predictive systems.
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.
New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.
problem Challenges in predicting future observations and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
method Introducing Type-2 validity and using consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
result Achieving both Type-1 and Type-2 validity through consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.
FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.
problem Improving statistical inference with limited labeled data and heterogeneous prediction quality.
method Filtered Prediction-Powered Inference (FPPI) framework.
result FPPI achieves strictly improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing methods.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
Time-agnostic predictors predict frames without fixed time intervals.
problem Predicting events in the future or between waypoints is difficult.
method Decouple visual prediction from a rigid notion of time, discovering predictable 'bottleneck' frames.
result Predictions are of higher visual quality and correspond to coherent semantic subgoals.
Proposes a model to update industrial data predictions based on temporal changes.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in industrial data analytics by addressing changing conditions over time.
method Integrates similarity and loss functions to estimate and update prediction models adaptively.
result The data renewal model enhances prediction accuracy by identifying and updating model changes.
Unified framework for estimating random forest prediction errors.
problem Estimating prediction errors for random forests.
method Novel estimator of conditional prediction error distribution function.
result Proposed estimators enable competitive prediction intervals.
Paper improves multi-step traffic flow prediction performance.
problem Predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on finite history.
method Introduces a model for recursive prediction and a data augmentation method for multi-output setting.
result Improves multi-step traffic flow prediction in recursive and multi-output settings.
Predicts food ingredient amounts from images.
problem Predicting relative amounts of ingredients from food images.
method Proposes two deep learning models for sparse and dense predictions, with semi-automatic data pre-processing.
result Encouraging experimental results on a recipe dataset.
This paper studies trade-offs in private prediction methods.
problem Leakage of training data information in machine learning predictions.
method Private training and private prediction methods with trade-offs.
result Private training methods outperform private prediction methods in various settings.
Conformal prediction helps quantify uncertainty but its use by humans is unclear.
problem Uncertainty quantification in predictions for human decision making.
method Decision theoretic framework for evaluating predictive uncertainty.
result Conformal prediction sets and human decision making goals are in tension.
New bounds on nearly maximally predictive features help improve data prediction.
problem Inferring maximally predictive features from data sets is often uncountably infinite.
method Derived upper-bounds on the number and coding cost of nearly maximally predictive features.
result Mixed-state predictive features offer a substantial improvement over finite-order Markov models.
New tree splitting criteria improve probabilistic predictions.
problem Improving tree-based nonparametric predictive distributions.
method Using proper scoring rules for tree splitting criteria.
result Trees with new splitting criteria produce better predictive distributions.
New method improves predictive systems with better theoretical guarantees.
problem Constructing predictive systems with out-of-sample calibration guarantees.
method Residual Distribution Predictive Systems (RDPs) that nest conformal predictive systems and offer flexibility.
result Empirically, RDPs perform competitively with conformal predictive systems and can be implemented with various regression methods.
Paper introduces PCP for efficient, reliable predictive inference.
problem Developing reliable predictive inference methods for target variables.
method Probabilistic conformal prediction using conditional random samples.
result PCP provides sharper predictive sets compared to existing methods.
A framework for private prediction sets using conformal prediction and differential privacy.
problem Jointly addressing reliability and privacy in machine learning predictions.
method Split conformal prediction with privatized quantile subroutine.
result Private prediction sets can be generated from privately-trained models.
LSTM neural networks improve business process predictions.
problem Inconsistent accuracy of existing predictive methods.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for a wide range of tasks.
result LSTM outperforms existing methods in various predictive tasks.
Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.
problem Bayesian inference's computational costs and posterior predictive distribution marginalization.
method Variational Prediction learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution using a variational bound.
result Directly learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution without test time marginalization costs.
New clustering technique improves RNN event log predictions.
problem Leveraging event attributes for better RNN predictions.
method A novel clustering technique for event attributes.
result Improved prediction accuracy with reduced training time.