The paper evaluates forecast accuracy of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections.
problem Forecast evaluation of realized volatility measures in large cross-sections of financial data.
method Equal predictive accuracy testing procedures, LASSO shrinkage, measurement error correction, cross-sectional jump component measures.
result The augmented HAR model outperforms the standard HAR model in forecasting realized volatility.
Low-cost sensors improve air quality prediction accuracy significantly.
problem Improving air quality monitoring networks with affordable sensors.
method Developed a high-resolution air quality prediction engine using low-cost sensors and official data.
result The use of low-cost sensors improves prediction accuracy by 25% and 15% for PM2.5 and PM10 respectively in densely monitored areas.
Proposes a new stability measure for model fitting on similar feature data sets.
problem Model fitting on data sets with similar features is challenging.
method Tuning hyperparameters in a multi-criteria fashion with predictive accuracy and feature selection stability.
result Our approach achieves similar or better predictive performance than single-criteria and stability selection approaches.
New measure assesses predictive dependence between continuous variables, capturing non-functional relationships.
problem Quantifying the joint dependence between continuous random variables.
method Introduces a novel, fully non-parametric measure bounded [0,1] that assesses predictive accuracy loss.
result The measure captures a wide range of relationships, including non-functional ones, and is interpretable.
Investor sentiment improves model accuracy but complexity doesn't always boost predictive power.
problem Determining the optimal complexity of investor sentiment measures in asset pricing models.
method Comprehensive review of 71 papers from 2000-2021, analyzing various sentiment measures and models.
result Higher complexity of sentiment measures does not necessarily improve predictive power.
Measures difficulty of predictions to improve deep learning models.
problem Understanding and improving deep learning models.
method Introduces a measure called prediction depth to assess example difficulty.
result Surprising relationships between prediction depth and model performance.
Project fair estimators while maintaining accuracy.
problem Making estimators fair without sacrificing accuracy.
method Optimal transport tools to find closest fair estimator.
result Efficiently constructs fair estimators with quantified cost.
The uncertainty measurement of classifiers' predictions is especially important in applications such as medical diagnoses that need to ensure limited human resources can focus on the most uncertain predictions returned by machine learning models. However, few existing uncertainty models attempt to improve overall predi…
Proposes a new method for localized uncertainty quantification in random forests using proximity measures.
problem Localized uncertainty quantification in random forests for improved reliability of predictions.
method Forming localized distributions of Out-Of-Bag (OOB) errors around nearby points defined by similarity measures (proximities) to create prediction intervals for regression and trust scores for classification.
result Localized prediction intervals and trust scores enhance model accuracy and provide higher accuracy-rejection AUC scores than competing methods.
Study evaluates how much knowledge LLMs have by comparing their prediction accuracy to flexible models.
problem Evaluating the predictive power of LLMs without access to their training data.
method Equivalent sample size measure, comparing LLM's prediction error to flexible models trained on varying amounts of domain-specific data.
result LLMs encode varying amounts of predictive information across different economic variables.
Many applications require the collection of data on different variables or measurements over many system performance metrics. We term those broadly as measures or variables. Often data collection along each measure incurs a cost, thus it is desirable to consider the cost of measures in modeling. This is a fairly new cl…
The paper assesses quality measures for machine learning models using cross-validation.
problem Evaluating the accuracy and robustness of quality measures for machine learning models.
method Cross-validation approach to estimate prediction error and quantify explained variation. Confidence bounds and local quality measures derived from residuals.
result The reliability and robustness of quality measures are assessed through numerical examples and confidence bounds.
New model improves prediction accuracy and interpretability for network-connected data.
problem Reduced effective sample size and poor prediction performance in network-connected data.
method Network-assisted Random Forest+ (RF+) with interpretable feature importance measures.
result Highly competitive prediction accuracy and interpretable feature importance.
Method predicts multistable system states from sparse measurements.
problem Predicting multistable system states from limited data.
method Semi-supervised classification with SPML optimization.
result 95% accuracy in predicting reaction-diffusion equation states.
Protein function prediction is the important problem in modern biology. In this paper, the un-normalized, symmetric normalized, and random walk graph Laplacian based semi-supervised learning methods will be applied to the integrated network combined from multiple networks to predict the functions of all yeast proteins …
Complex problems may require sophisticated, non-linear learning methods such as kernel machines or deep neural networks to achieve state of the art prediction accuracies. However, high prediction accuracies are not the only objective to consider when solving problems using machine learning. Instead, particular scientif…
Deep ROC analysis improves model selection and interpretation in medical and AI applications.
problem Inadequate performance measures for binary classifiers.
method Deep ROC analysis, translating AUC and partial AUC into balanced average accuracy and post-test measures.
result Deep ROC analysis provides balanced average accuracy, average sensitivity, and average specificity.
Computational efficiency is an important consideration for deploying machine learning models for time series prediction in an online setting. Machine learning algorithms adjust model parameters automatically based on the data, but often require users to set additional parameters, known as hyperparameters. Hyperparamete…
Harmonization schemes limit accuracy due to domain information.
problem Harmonization schemes lead to inaccurate predictions due to domain information.
method Analysis of mutual information and real label value informativeness.
result Accuracy is limited by the domain with least information.
This paper evaluates forecast quality in electricity markets beyond traditional accuracy measures.
problem Traditional accuracy measures fail to reflect the economic value of electricity price forecasts.
method Investigates four quality dimensions: accuracy, dispersion, association, and extremum identification.
result Dispersion- and association-based measures better capture forecast economic value.
Study examines fairness in machine learning for credit scoring.
problem Bias in machine learning models for credit scoring.
method Comprehensive experimental study of fairness-aware machine learning models.
result Fairness-aware models improve fairness while maintaining accuracy.
GCQRF predicts survival quantiles without linearity assumptions.
problem Survival analysis with right censoring and nonlinearity.
method Global Censored Quantile Random Forest (GCQRF) for complex relationships.
result GCQRF outperforms existing methods in predictive accuracy.
We show how to adjust the coefficient of determination (R2) when used for measuring predictive accuracy via leave-one-out cross-validation.
Overconfidence and underconfidence in machine learning classifiers is measured by calibration: the degree to which the probabilities predicted for each class match the accuracy of the classifier on that prediction. How one measures calibration remains a challenge: expected calibration error, the most popular metric, ha…
Most network-based protein (or gene) function prediction methods are based on the assumption that the labels of two adjacent proteins in the network are likely to be the same. However, assuming the pairwise relationship between proteins or genes is not complete, the information a group of genes that show very similar p…
This paper reviews PU learning evaluation methods and provides practical recommendations.
problem Evaluating PU learning methods when only positive and unlabelled data are available.
method Critical review of 51 articles proposing PU classifiers and alternative predictive accuracy measures.
result Practical recommendations for improving PU learning evaluation.
New approach uses Gaussian processes to learn and track complex systems with guaranteed accuracy.
problem Inaccurate first principle models for complex systems due to data complexity.
method Bayesian prediction error bound for Gaussian process regression, derived from kernel-based data density.
result Achieves vanishing tracking error with increasing data density, providing time-varying accuracy guarantees.
This work presents a new classifier that is specifically designed to be fully interpretable. This technique determines the probability of a class outcome, based directly on probability assignments measured from the training data. The accuracy of the predicted probability can be improved by measuring more probability es…
The accuracy of machine learning systems is a widely studied research topic. Established techniques such as cross-validation predict the accuracy on unseen data of the classifier produced by applying a given learning method to a given training data set. However, they do not predict whether incurring the cost of obtaini…
CONFINE enhances neural networks' interpretability without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep neural networks, especially in healthcare.
method CONFINE uses conformal prediction to generate prediction sets with robust uncertainty estimates.
result CONFINE achieves correct efficiency up to 3.3% higher than original accuracy.
GeoConformal predicts spatial uncertainty without relying on specific models.
problem Measuring uncertainty in spatial predictions to enhance model credibility.
method GeoConformal Prediction integrates geographical weighting into conformal prediction.
result GeoConformal achieves higher coverage rates in uncertainty assessment compared to Bootstrap methods.
New GPnn method achieves scalable regression with low computational cost.
problem Inefficient Gaussian Process (GP) regression for large datasets.
method GP nearest-neighbour (GPnn) prediction with robustness and limiting behaviour exploration.
result GPnn achieves high MSE accuracy with minimal parameter estimation effort, even in gross misspecification.
Neural networks predict flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulence.
problem Predicting flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulent flows using limited experimental data.
method Convolutional neural networks trained on wall-normal velocity and pressure data.
result Neural networks accurately predict flow and elastic stresses, especially during low-drag events.
Study finds visual explanations do not significantly improve human accuracy or trust in model predictions.
problem Measuring the impact of visual explanations on human accuracy and trust in model predictions.
method Randomized controlled trial with image-based age prediction task, varying levels of explanation quality.
result Visual explanations do not significantly alter human accuracy or trust in the model.
TGNN combines GNN and SMM for better trading network predictions.
problem Predicting asset prices in trading networks with structural impact factors.
method Combines GNN and SMM for asset price prediction.
result TGNN outperforms existing methods in prediction accuracy.
Study improves choice model accuracy and heterogeneity representation using mixture models.
problem Improving prediction accuracy and heterogeneity representation in choice models.
method Semi-nonparametric Latent Class Choice Model with mixture models and EM algorithm.
result Mixture models enhance prediction accuracy and heterogeneity representation without sacrificing interpretability.
We pick up the regime switching model for asset returns introduced by Rogers and Zhang. The calibration involves various markets including implied volatility in order to gain additional predictive power. We focus on the calculation of risk measures by Fourier methods that have successfully been applied to option pricin…
Study uses machine learning to predict high-frequency trading liquidity.
problem Predicting minute-level price movements in high-frequency trading markets.
method Advanced machine learning techniques (Logistic Regression, SVM, Random Forest) applied to liquidity metrics.
result Random Forest algorithm shows superior accuracy in predicting price movements.
In this study, we establish a basis for selecting similarity measures when applying machine learning techniques to solve materials science problems. This selection is considered with an emphasis on the distinctiveness between materials that reflect their nature well. We perform a case study with a dataset of rare-earth…
Bayesian framework predicts aerodynamic uncertainty from sparse measurements.
problem Calibrating aerodynamic models with sparse and uncertain measurements.
method Bayesian latent Gaussian process for surrogate model calibration.
result Calibrated surrogate model accurately predicts aerodynamic uncertainty.
Explainable AI improves human decision accuracy but does not enhance it significantly.
problem Improving human decision-making through explainable AI.
method Comparing human decision accuracy with and without AI predictions, including or excluding explanations.
result Providing AI predictions improves human decision accuracy, but explanations do not significantly enhance it.
In recent years Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have been rapidly developed in various applications, together with increasingly complex architectures. The performance gain of these DNNs generally comes with high computational costs and large memory consumption, which may not be affordable for mobile platforms. Deep model q…
The study reduces a personality measurement instrument to 10 features with minimal loss of accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting personality types with minimal predictors.
method Reduced a 94-item personality survey to 10 features, using class imbalance correction methods.
result Achieved 73.81% accuracy on unseen data with only 1% loss.
A new method clusters time series based on model prediction accuracy.
problem Clustering time series data effectively.
method Iterative model fitting and assignment based on predictive accuracy.
result The method outperforms other techniques in clustering and predictive accuracy.
Enhances image quality to improve test-time adaptation accuracy.
problem Reducing accuracy loss due to distribution shift in deep networks.
method Integrates image enhancement with TTA methods to reduce prediction uncertainty.
result TECA method increases accuracy of TTA methods without hyperparameters.
Current clinical practice to monitor patients' health follows either regular or heuristic-based lab test (e.g. blood test) scheduling. Such practice not only gives rise to redundant measurements accruing cost, but may even lead to unnecessary patient discomfort. From the computational perspective, heuristic-based test …
ANNs predict SAFARI-1 neutron fluxes with uncertainties.
problem Uncertainty quantification in ANN predictions for SAFARI-1.
method Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN VI) for uncertainty quantification.
result Uncertainty bands envelop noisy measurement data points, indicating good prediction and generalization.
AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.
problem Misleading performance metrics in rare event settings.
method Simulation study varying dataset sizes and event rates.
result AUC is unreliable in rare event settings but stable with moderate numbers of events.