Bayesian learning made scalable with posteriors library.
problem Computational challenges in Bayesian learning with modern models.
method Introducing posteriors library and tempered MCMC.
result Bayesian approximations are useful and scalable.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,657 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “Posterior learning”
Meta-learning improves Bayesian causal discovery by sampling from the posterior.
problem Difficulty in estimating the full posterior over causal structures due to large number of possible graphs and functional relationships.
method Proposes a Bayesian meta-learning model that encodes key properties of the posterior and allows for sampling causal structures.
result Meta-Bayesian causal discovery allows for reliable sampling from the posterior over causal structures.
New research shows CPE only occurs when Bayesian posterior underfits.
problem Model misspecification leading to CPE under perfect model specification.
method Theoretical analysis of Bayesian posterior and underfitting.
result No CPE if there is no underfitting of the Bayesian posterior.
New perspective on federated learning as posterior inference, improving optimization.
problem Optimizing global models in distributed learning settings.
method Formulated as posterior inference problem, using MCMC for approximate inference and federated averaging for refinement.
result Federated posterior averaging (FedPA) outperforms existing methods on benchmarks.
We consider the problem of sequential learning from categorical observations bounded in [0,1]. We establish an ordering between the Dirichlet posterior over categorical outcomes and a Gaussian posterior under observations with N(0,1) noise. We establish that, conditioned upon identical data with at least two observatio…
Bayesian deep learning faces posterior collapse due to likelihood vs. prior competition.
problem Posterior collapse in Bayesian deep learning models.
method Identified competition between likelihood and prior regularization in a linear latent variable model.
result Posterior collapse is related to neural and dimensional collapse, suggesting a broader learning issue.
FP-BMA improves generalization by encouraging flat posteriors in Bayesian Model Averaging.
problem Lack of flat posterior in approximate Bayesian inference methods hinders effective Bayesian Model Averaging.
method Proposes Flat Posterior-aware Bayesian Model Averaging (FP-BMA) and Flat Posterior-aware Bayesian Transfer Learning schemes.
result FP-BMA successfully captures flat posteriors, improving generalization performance.
Meta-learning reformulated as Bayesian risk minimization.
problem Learning models to quickly adapt to new tasks from small datasets.
method Formalized meta-learning as Bayesian risk minimization, using a probabilistic framework to compute predictive distributions from posterior distributions of latent variables conditioned on contextual datasets.
result A novel Gaussian approximation for the posterior distribution that converges to maximum likelihood estimates and outperforms Neural Process on benchmark datasets.
New method improves generative model performance by fully conditioning variational posteriors.
problem Inaccurate inference due to partial conditioning of variational posteriors in sequential LVMs.
method Introduces fully-conditioned approximate posteriors to improve generative model performance.
result Improves generative modelling and multi-step prediction performance.
PVI seeks a posterior that makes predictions closer to true data, not approximating the Bayesian posterior.
problem Finding meaningful posterior distributions under model misspecification.
method Predictive variational inference (PVI) seeks an optimal posterior density for close predictive matching to true data.
result PVI learns a posterior that is not the same as the Bayesian posterior, but is closer to the true data generating process.
New approach shows AI can adapt like toddlers by correcting old knowledge.
problem Lack of adaptability in AI models compared to humans and animals.
method Casting adaptation as posterior correction and using Bayesian Learning Rule.
result AI can learn to adapt quickly by using posterior correction.
During the past five years the Bayesian deep learning community has developed increasingly accurate and efficient approximate inference procedures that allow for Bayesian inference in deep neural networks. However, despite this algorithmic progress and the promise of improved uncertainty quantification and sample effic…
The posterior variance of Gaussian processes is a valuable measure of the learning error which is exploited in various applications such as safe reinforcement learning and control design. However, suitable analysis of the posterior variance which captures its behavior for finite and infinite number of training data is …
New algorithms for fast online decision making using neural networks and martingale posteriors.
problem Online sequential decision making under uncertainty.
method Martingale posterior neural networks for fast online learning and decision making.
result Achieves competitive performance-speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization.
A new method combines scores of individual observations to efficiently approximate posterior distributions.
problem Handling posterior distributions conditioned on multiple observations with neural methods.
method Conditional score modeling to combine learned scores from individual observations.
result Sample-efficient method that can aggregate multiple observations at inference time.
Accelerates pulsar light curve inference with learned representations and optimization.
problem Computational expense of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior inference.
method Combining U-Net latent representations with local simulator-guided optimization.
result 120x reduction in inference time (24 hours to 12 minutes) with accuracy preserved.
Improved VAEs learn consistent posterior distributions from missing data.
problem Learning VAEs from data with missing values, especially in the encoder.
method Formal definition of posterior consistency and regularization approach.
result Regularization leads to improved performance in reconstruction and downstream tasks.
Machine learning techniques improve Bayesian computation for complex data.
problem Infeasible posterior computation in high-dimensional models.
method Improving posterior computation using machine learning techniques.
result Potential to enhance Bayesian computation efficiency.
Develops a new method for sampling from Bayesian credible sets using deep generative quantile learning.
problem Sampling from posterior distributions in high-dimensional spaces with intractable likelihoods.
method Uses deep neural networks to implicitly sample from Bayesian credible sets via a push-forward mapping and Monge-Kantorovich depth.
result Demonstrates improved performance and theoretical consistency of the quantile learning framework.
KL annealing helps VAEs avoid posterior collapse and overfitting.
problem Posterior collapse and overfitting in VAEs.
method Theoretical analysis of learning dynamics with KL annealing.
result Posterior collapse is inevitable when exceeds a threshold.
The paper simplifies Bayesian posterior using clustering to make inference more manageable.
problem Handling large-scale, redundant datasets in Bayesian learning.
method Construct an approximate posterior by replacing data points in the same cluster with the centroid.
result The approximate posterior is close to the exact posterior and easier to sample from.
Some machine learning applications require continual learning - where data comes in a sequence of datasets, each is used for training and then permanently discarded. From a Bayesian perspective, continual learning seems straightforward: Given the model posterior one would simply use this as the prior for the next task.…
Estimating Posterior Ratio for Classification: Transfer Learning from Probabilistic Perspectivestat.ML
Transfer learning assumes classifiers of similar tasks share certain parameter structures. Unfortunately, modern classifiers uses sophisticated feature representations with huge parameter spaces which lead to costly transfer. Under the impression that changes from one classifier to another should be ``simple'', an effi…
The representation of the approximate posterior is a critical aspect of effective variational autoencoders (VAEs). Poor choices for the approximate posterior have a detrimental impact on the generative performance of VAEs due to the mismatch with the true posterior. We extend the class of posterior models that may be l…
SPOT improves differentiable causal discovery by estimating skeleton posterior for latent confounders.
problem Scalable and accurate estimation of causal skeletons in the presence of latent confounders.
method SPOT (Skeleton Posterior-guided OpTimization) framework that estimates skeleton posterior and integrates it with differentiable causal discovery.
result SPOT enhances differentiable causal discovery by reducing the search space and improving accuracy.
Markov networks are extensively used to model complex sequential, spatial, and relational interactions in a wide range of fields. By learning the structure of independences of a domain, more accurate joint probability distributions can be obtained for inference tasks or, more directly, for interpreting the most signifi…
Bayesian RL tackles uncertainty with deep generative models and sequential samplers.
problem Optimal decision-making in uncertain environments with limited data.
method Bayesian approach using deep generative models and prequential scoring rule for posterior inference. Policy learning via expected Thompson sampling.
result Improves policy learning in high-dimensional parameter spaces and continuous action spaces.
BNRE improves simulation-based inference by producing more conservative posteriors.
problem Overconfident posteriors from current simulation-based inference algorithms risk false inferences.
method Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation (BNRE) that produces more conservative posterior approximations.
result BNRE produces more conservative posterior surrogates on all tested benchmarks and simulation budgets.
Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior modes. Further, all models are misspecified, which brings into question the val…
Sparse matrices simplify computation of GP variances and likelihoods.
problem Efficient computation of posterior variance and log-likelihood for additive Matérn GPs.
method Represented posterior mean, variance, log-likelihood, and gradient using sparse matrices.
result Efficient computation of posterior mean, variance, log-likelihood, and gradient in time.
SNPLA uses normalizing flows for efficient inference in implicit models.
problem Efficient inference in implicit models with complex likelihood and posterior learning.
method Sequential Neural Posterior and Likelihood Approximation (SNPLA) algorithm using normalizing flows.
result SNPLA achieves competitive performance with faster posterior draws compared to MCMC methods.
Enhances predictive performance in Bayesian deep learning via generalized Laplace approximation.
problem Inconsistency in Bayesian deep learning.
method Interprets posterior tempering as a correction for model misspecification and recalibration of priors. Introduces generalized Laplace approximation.
result Generalized Laplace approximation enhances predictive performance.
Proposes a method to sample from flat basins of posterior distributions in Bayesian deep learning.
problem Sampling from multi-modal posterior distributions leads to overfitting due to trapping in bad modes.
method Introduces an auxiliary guiding variable to bias MCMC sampling towards flat basins of the energy landscape.
result The method converges faster and outperforms existing methods in sampling from flat basins of the posterior.
New method prevents posterior collapse in iVAE models.
problem Posterior collapse in iVAE models where observations and ICs are independent given covariates.
method Developed CI-iVAE by considering a mixture of encoder and posterior distributions in the objective function.
result Prevents posterior collapse, resulting in latent representations with more information of the observations.
VAR-GPs solve continual learning by updating posteriors sequentially.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning tasks.
method Sparse inducing point approximations and auto-regressive variational distribution.
result VAR-GPs prevent catastrophic forgetting and outperform baselines.
PAC-Bayes bounds for Gibbs posteriors derived via singular learning theory.
problem Generalization bounds for overparameterized models with data-dependent priors.
method Explicit non-asymptotic PAC-Bayes bounds using singular learning theory.
result Explicit posterior-averaged risk bounds for overparameterized models.
Efficient Reinforcement Learning usually takes advantage of demonstration or good exploration strategy. By applying posterior sampling in model-free RL under the hypothesis of GP, we propose Gaussian Process Posterior Sampling Reinforcement Learning(GPPSTD) algorithm in continuous state space, giving theoretical justif…
A new method learns posterior and predictive distributions together, reducing computational cost.
problem Sequential two-stage Bayesian inference is computationally expensive.
method Amortized variational inference targeting posterior-predictive distribution.
result Efficient online inference with more accurate predictive distributions.
One-round FL method improves robustness and reduces communication rounds.
problem Making predictions robust and reducing FL communication rounds in heterogeneous data.
method Bayesian predictive space aggregation of client posteriors in one round.
result One-round FL method outperforms other techniques on heterogeneous settings.
Generative sampler learns velocity fields for efficient posterior inference.
problem Sampling from complex posterior distributions in high dimensions.
method Generative multivariate posterior sampler via flow matching, learning a velocity field for a deterministic transport map.
result Conditional Brenier map enables fast generation of credible sets with theoretical consistency guarantees.
Towards Model-Agnostic Posterior Approximation for Fast and Accurate Variational Autoencodersstat.ML
A new method approximates posterior for VAEs without iterative training.
problem Inference models in VAEs are poor early on, leading to suboptimal models.
method Train generative and inference models independently, using a model-agnostic posterior approximation (MAPA).
result MAPA approximates the true posterior deterministically and can improve density estimation.
GP-PCA reduces infinite-dimensional GP posteriors to a finite space for meta-learning.
problem How to define a structure for a set of Gaussian process posteriors.
method Information geometric framework and variational inference.
result GP-PCA improves meta-learning performance through reduced GP posteriors.
New methods for scalable inference in modular models with misspecified sub-models.
problem Model misspecification in multi-modular models complicates evidence combination.
method Variational methods for approximating Cut and SMI posteriors, and Variational Meta-Posterior.
result Feasibility of analysis with multiple cuts using a single set of variational parameters.
The paper develops algorithms for competitive RL in partially observable MGs.
problem Challenges in reinforcement learning with function approximation and partial observability.
method Proposes posterior sampling methods for self-play and adversarial learning in zero-sum MGs.
result Developed algorithms achieve low regret bounds scaling sublinearly with GEC and episode number.
Bayesian neural networks explore rare fluctuations for better feature learning.
problem Understanding rare but dominant fluctuations in Bayesian neural networks.
method Large-deviation theory and joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels.
result Posterior rate function optimization reveals data-dependent kernel selection.
TRUST improves structure learning with tractable uncertainty.
problem Capturing uncertainty in structure learning for causal DAGs.
method Probabilistic circuits for posterior inference.
result Probabilistic circuits enhance structure learning quality and uncertainty.
Bayesian PINNs learn elliptic PDEs with near-minimax posterior contraction rate.
problem Learning elliptic PDEs with noisy data and non-homogeneous boundary conditions.
method Bayesian approach with a Hölder space prior on neural network weights.
result Posterior contracts at near-minimax rate without prior knowledge of solution smoothness.
This paper makes two contributions to Bayesian machine learning algorithms. Firstly, we propose stochastic natural gradient expectation propagation (SNEP), a novel alternative to expectation propagation (EP), a popular variational inference algorithm. SNEP is a black box variational algorithm, in that it does not requi…