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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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62124185247 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Posterior Transformation

TM-VI uses flexible transformation models to approximate complex posteriors in Bayesian models.

problem Approximating complex posteriors in Bayesian models with limited flexibility.
method Transformation models for variational inference (TM-VI).
result TM-VI allows accurate approximation of complex posteriors in models with one parameter and works in a mean-field fashion for multi-parameter models.

PPT optimizes transformer behavior by steering its latent posterior using prior samples.

problem Eliciting desired behavior from transformers without backpropagation.
method Posterior Prefix Tuning (PPT) uses predictive Monte Carlo (PMC) samples and importance sampling to optimize the latent posterior.
result PPT optimizes transformer behavior without backpropagation, achieving high utility across different utility functions.

Transformers can approximate posterior predictive distributions through in-context learning.

problem Bayesian prediction tasks, especially beyond point predictions.
method Gradient descent algorithm targeting posterior predictive mean and variance, followed by nonlinear mappings.
result Transformers can implement algorithms to approximate posterior predictive distributions.

Transformers mimic Bayesian reasoning in controlled settings, revealing geometric mechanisms.

problem Verifying if transformers perform Bayesian reasoning rigorously in natural data.
method Constructing Bayesian wind tunnels with known posteriors and proving memorization impossibility.
result Transformers achieve 10310^{-3}-10410^{-4} bit accuracy in Bayesian posteriors, while MLPs fail.

Variational inference methods often focus on the problem of efficient model optimization, with little emphasis on the choice of the approximating posterior. In this paper, we review and implement the various methods that enable us to develop a rich family of approximating posteriors. We show that one particular method …

2017-07-09abs ↗pdf ↗

Variational autoencoder is a powerful deep generative model with variational inference. The practice of modeling latent variables in the VAE's original formulation as normal distributions with a diagonal covariance matrix limits the flexibility to match the true posterior distribution. We propose a new transformation, …

2019-01-30abs ↗pdf ↗

How can one perform Bayesian inference on stochastic simulators with intractable likelihoods? A recent approach is to learn the posterior from adaptively proposed simulations using neural network-based conditional density estimators. However, existing methods are limited to a narrow range of proposal distributions or r…

2019-05-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Transformer pretraining yields strong EB performance without explicit adaptation.

problem Empirical Bayes problems with unknown test distributions.
method Indirect analysis of pretrained transformer's performance under universal priors.
result Near-optimal regret bound of O~(1n)\widetilde{O}(\frac{1}{n}) for arbitrary test distributions.

Variational auto-encoders (VAE) are scalable and powerful generative models. However, the choice of the variational posterior determines tractability and flexibility of the VAE. Commonly, latent variables are modeled using the normal distribution with a diagonal covariance matrix. This results in computational efficien…

2016-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper offers a simple method for Bayesian regression with unknown transformations.

problem Joint inference of unknown transformations and model parameters in Bayesian regression is computationally inefficient and cumbersome.
method The paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap to directly target the posterior distribution of the transformation.
result The approach delivers joint posterior consistency and efficient Monte Carlo inference for the transformation and all parameters.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restricti…

2015-05-21abs ↗pdf ↗

Focal loss improves classification but not class-posterior probability estimation.

problem Improving class-posterior probability estimation from focal loss.
method Proved classification-calibration and derived a transformation to recover true class-posterior probabilities.
result A transformation of the confidence score from focal loss minimization allows recovery of true class-posterior probabilities.

This paper clarifies VAE's property through geometric and information-theoretic interpretations.

problem The transparency of VAE model is an underlying issue.
method Quantitative understanding of VAE through differential geometry and information theory.
result VAE can be mapped to an implicit isometric embedding with a scale factor derived from the posterior parameter.

Fast Bayesian inference with adaptable priors for real-time applications.

problem Intractable exact posterior computation limits Bayesian inference's adoption.
method Distribution Transformer architecture that learns mappings between priors and posteriors.
result Significant reduction in computation time from minutes to milliseconds.

FTIP uses normalizing flows to improve posterior inference in function space.

problem Challenges in posterior inference with implicit-process priors.
method FTIP uses normalizing flows to define a richer variational distribution over combination weights.
result FTIP captures asymmetric and multimodal posterior structure better than Gaussian coefficient approximations.

Attention-only transformers learn from context via two stages of inference.

problem Learning from corrupted token sequences in minimal transformers.
method Two-stage empirical Bayes interpretation: kernel-weighted posterior mean and particle dynamics.
result Effective denoising without explicit noise schedules, showing posterior-mean recovery under asymptotic conditions.

Paper proposes nested MLMC for SNPE with intractable likelihoods.

problem Estimating posterior distributions from intractable likelihoods.
method Nested MLMC for loss function and gradients, with convergence results.
result Effective methods for approximating complex multimodal posteriors.

The paper proves how Transformers learn from context and generalize well.

problem Understanding how Transformers generalize from diverse tasks.
method Developed a statistical theory for in-context learning, separating risk into Bayes Gap and Posterior Variance.
result The Posterior Variance is task-independent, and the Bayes Gap decreases with more in-context examples.

Transformers approximate Bayesian posteriors but not exactly.

problem Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face challenges due to task-preserving order changes in transformers.
method Showed that excess prequential code length is exactly cumulative predictive KL, decomposing expected regret into order-averaged predictor and order-averaging gain.
result Transformers approximate Bayesian posteriors but not exactly, priced by log loss.

New normalizing flows in hyperbolic space improve posterior modeling for hierarchical data.

problem Limited flexibility of existing normalizing flows in Euclidean space for hierarchical data.
method Elevated normalizing flows to hyperbolic spaces using coupling transforms and Wrapped Hyperboloid Coupling.
result Improved performance on density estimation and hierarchical graph data.

UT module refines VAE latent space, improving disentanglement and interpretability.

problem Irregular latent distributions cause posterior collapse and misalignment in VAEs.
method UT module uses G-KDE clustering, GM modeling, and PIT to transform latent space into uniform distribution.
result UT module enhances disentanglement and interpretability of latent representations.

CNR uses convex optimization to estimate conditional distributions.

problem Estimating uncertainty in predictions and posterior conditional distributions.
method Convex optimization of a posterior defined via non-linear transformations on Gaussians.
result CNR can fit arbitrary conditional distributions, including multimodal and non-symmetric ones.

The framework of normalizing flows provides a general strategy for flexible variational inference of posteriors over latent variables. We propose a new type of normalizing flow, inverse autoregressive flow (IAF), that, in contrast to earlier published flows, scales well to high-dimensional latent spaces. The proposed f…

2016-06-15abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose an input design method for a general class of parametric probabilistic models, including nonlinear dynamical systems with process noise. The goal of the procedure is to select inputs such that the parameter posterior distribution concentrates about the true value of the parameters; however, exact computation…

2019-03-06abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper analyzes kNN convergence over feature transformations.

problem The curse of dimensionality affects kNN performance in transformed feature spaces.
method Developed a novel analysis on kNN convergence rates over transformed features, linking properties of the transformed space to raw feature space.
result Theoretical analysis explains why some feature transformations are better for kNN.

We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and automated variational Gaussian copula approach, in which the parametric Gaussian copul…

2015-06-19abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper explores Bayesian Neural Network posteriors, uncovering symmetries and their impact.

problem Understanding the complex posterior distribution of deep Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Investigates optimal approaches for approximating posteriors, analyzes modes, and explores visualizations.
result Uncovered weight-space symmetries and their impact on the posterior, particularly scaling symmetries.

We consider probabilistic PCA and related factor models from a Bayesian perspective. These models are in general not identifiable as the likelihood has a rotational symmetry. This gives rise to complicated posterior distributions with continuous subspaces of equal density and thus hinders efficiency of inference as wel…

2019-05-12abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method improves inference for complex Bayesian models.

problem Bayesian inference for doubly intractable distributions is computationally challenging.
method Monte Carlo Stein variational gradient descent (MC-SVGD) approach.
result The method achieves substantial computational gains over existing algorithms.

We revisit Rahimi and Recht (2007)'s kernel random Fourier features (RFF) method through the lens of the PAC-Bayesian theory. While the primary goal of RFF is to approximate a kernel, we look at the Fourier transform as a prior distribution over trigonometric hypotheses. It naturally suggests learning a posterior on th…

2018-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method improves posterior approximation for complex distributions.

problem Difficulty in capturing multimodal and heavy-tailed posteriors with standard normalizing flows.
method StiCTAF: stick-breaking mixture base with component-wise tail adaptation.
result Improved tail recovery and better mode coverage compared to benchmarks.

The paper provides theoretical guarantees for transformation-based models in variational inference.

problem Theoretical justification for transformation-based models in variational inference.
method Theoretical analysis of non-linear latent variable models and Gaussian process priors.
result Theoretical guarantees for implicit variational inference, achieving optimal risk bounds and approximating the true posterior.

TabMGP uses a martingale posterior with TabPFN to estimate uncertainty in tabular data.

problem Estimating uncertainty in models like TabPFN for scientific estimands θθ.
method TabMGP is an MGP built on TabPFN, focusing inference on loss function-defined parameters.
result TabMGP produces credible sets with near-nominal coverage and often outperforms baselines.

Variational inference relies on flexible approximate posterior distributions. Normalizing flows provide a general recipe to construct flexible variational posteriors. We introduce Sylvester normalizing flows, which can be seen as a generalization of planar flows. Sylvester normalizing flows remove the well-known single…

2018-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a new method for sampling from Bayesian credible sets using deep generative quantile learning.

problem Sampling from posterior distributions in high-dimensional spaces with intractable likelihoods.
method Uses deep neural networks to implicitly sample from Bayesian credible sets via a push-forward mapping and Monge-Kantorovich depth.
result Demonstrates improved performance and theoretical consistency of the quantile learning framework.

This paper proposes a new method to approximate posterior distributions using generative neural networks trained via scoring rule minimization.

problem Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference for models with intractable likelihood.
method Approximate posterior with generative neural networks trained via scoring rule minimization, avoiding the instability of adversarial training.
result Scoring Rule minimization leads to better performance and uncertainty quantification compared to adversarial training.