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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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59118176235 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for Posterior Score

A new method combines scores of individual observations to efficiently approximate posterior distributions.

problem Handling posterior distributions conditioned on multiple observations with neural methods.
method Conditional score modeling to combine learned scores from individual observations.
result Sample-efficient method that can aggregate multiple observations at inference time.

A new method approximates the exact posterior score for diffusion models.

problem Training-free guidance of diffusion models for image restoration and inverse problems.
method Presented a novel expression for the exact posterior score, leveraging it to compute step sizes on the fly.
result Demonstrated competitive performance with fewer time steps compared to state-of-the-art techniques.

A novel diffusion method for Bayesian posterior sampling with theoretical guarantees.

problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions in Bayesian inversion.
method Diffusion-based posterior sampling using Langevin dynamics and PnP framework.
result The method converges even for multi-modal posterior distributions with theoretical error bounds.

We extend diffusion models to function spaces and introduce a new method for sampling from posterior distributions.

problem Sampling from posterior distributions in infinite-dimensional function spaces using diffusion models.
method Infinite-dimensional extension of Doob's hh-transform, Supervised Guidance Training for efficient sampling.
result We prove that diffusion models can be conditioned to sample from posterior distributions and introduce a simulation-free score matching objective.

Markov networks are extensively used to model complex sequential, spatial, and relational interactions in a wide range of fields. By learning the structure of independences of a domain, more accurate joint probability distributions can be obtained for inference tasks or, more directly, for interpreting the most signifi…

2016-08-08abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper argues against using calibration metrics for assessing posterior probabilities and proposes expected proper scoring rules instead.

problem The assessment of posterior probabilities generated by machine learning classifiers using calibration metrics is flawed and should be replaced with expected proper scoring rules.
method The paper reviews proper scoring rules from a practical perspective, explains why expected PSRs are a principled measure of posterior quality, and introduces a new calibration metric called calibration loss.
result Calibration loss is superior to expected calibration error and expected score divergence calibration metrics for assessing posterior probabilities.

Focal loss improves classification but not class-posterior probability estimation.

problem Improving class-posterior probability estimation from focal loss.
method Proved classification-calibration and derived a transformation to recover true class-posterior probabilities.
result A transformation of the confidence score from focal loss minimization allows recovery of true class-posterior probabilities.

One of the central themes in the classification task is the estimation of class posterior probability at a new point x\bf{x}. The vast majority of classifiers output a score for x\bf{x}, which is monotonically related to the posterior probability via an unknown relationship. There are many attempts in the literature …

2019-09-12abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper analyzes the error accumulation in a compositional score-based algorithm for SBI.

problem How to effectively combine multiple observations to improve parameter inference.
method Study of the GAUSS algorithm's compositional score and its mean squared error.
result Established an upper bound on the mean squared error of the compositional score.

New method estimates grouping loss in neural networks to improve confidence scores.

problem Improving confidence scores in neural networks to reflect true posterior probabilities.
method Proposed an estimator to approximate the grouping loss.
result Modern neural networks exhibit grouping loss, especially in distribution shifts.

PVI seeks a posterior that makes predictions closer to true data, not approximating the Bayesian posterior.

problem Finding meaningful posterior distributions under model misspecification.
method Predictive variational inference (PVI) seeks an optimal posterior density for close predictive matching to true data.
result PVI learns a posterior that is not the same as the Bayesian posterior, but is closer to the true data generating process.

Paper presents variational estimates for EBLVMs without structural assumptions.

problem Challenges in learning and evaluating EBLVMs due to intractable true posteriors and partition functions.
method Variational estimates of the score function and its gradient (VaES and VaGES) in a general EBLVM.
result The estimates can be applied to KSD and SM-based methods to learn EBLVMs and estimate Fisher divergence.

New method quantifies uncertainty in denoising models.

problem Uncertainty quantification in denoising models.
method Derives a relation between posterior moments and derivatives, uses it for efficient uncertainty quantification.
result Efficient computation of principal components and full marginal distributions of the posterior.

This paper proposes a new method to approximate posterior distributions using generative neural networks trained via scoring rule minimization.

problem Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference for models with intractable likelihood.
method Approximate posterior with generative neural networks trained via scoring rule minimization, avoiding the instability of adversarial training.
result Scoring Rule minimization leads to better performance and uncertainty quantification compared to adversarial training.

New method DDVI improves posterior inference for deep Gaussian processes.

problem Inference of inducing points in DGPs is challenging and biased.
method DDVI uses denoising diffusion SDE and score matching for posterior approximation.
result Empirically shows DDVI outperforms baseline methods in inducing point inference.

Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned model.…

2017-04-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Annealed Langevin dynamics improves sampling from composite scores in SBI.

problem Irreducible bias in sampling from composite scores of SBI methods.
method Derive Wasserstein bounds and decision rules for hyperparameters.
result Explicit decision rules for hyperparameters guarantee prescribed sampling accuracy.

Score-based models improve diffuse optical tomography accuracy.

problem Improving accuracy in diffuse optical tomography with uncertainty quantification.
method Score-based diffusion models with a mixed score function to prevent overfitting.
result Data-driven prior distribution results in posterior samples with low variance and centred around the ground truth.

Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, by evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned mod…

2016-05-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian RL tackles uncertainty with deep generative models and sequential samplers.

problem Optimal decision-making in uncertain environments with limited data.
method Bayesian approach using deep generative models and prequential scoring rule for posterior inference. Policy learning via expected Thompson sampling.
result Improves policy learning in high-dimensional parameter spaces and continuous action spaces.

A new method for sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian inverse problems.

problem Sampling from posterior distributions in Bayesian inverse problems is challenging due to intractable terms.
method Proposes a novel approach that decomposes the transitions, allowing a trade-off between complexity of guidance term and prior transitions.
result Validated through experiments on various inverse problems, including challenging cases with latent diffusion models as priors.

Method solves Bayesian inverse problems in function space without assuming log-concavity.

problem Bayesian inverse problems in infinite-dimensional nonlinear settings.
method Score-based diffusion models as a prior, Langevin-type MCMC on function spaces.
result Provable convergence bound for posterior sampling, dependent on score approximation.

Proposes methods to estimate posterior probability and propensity score functions without assuming constant propensity score.

problem Learning from biased positive-unlabeled data.
method Parametric approach to joint estimation of posterior probability and propensity score functions using maximum likelihood and alternating maximization.
result Proposed methods are comparable or better than existing methods based on Expectation-Maximisation scheme.

A new method samples from a target density without initial samples using Monte Carlo estimation of the score.

problem Sampling from a target density without initial samples.
method Monte Carlo estimation of the score using oracle access to the log likelihood.
result Samples can be produced from the target density without needing initial samples.

In this paper we address the following question: Can we approximately sample from a Bayesian posterior distribution if we are only allowed to touch a small mini-batch of data-items for every sample we generate?. An algorithm based on the Langevin equation with stochastic gradients (SGLD) was previously proposed to solv…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Implied posterior probability of a given model (say, Support Vector Machines (SVM)) at a point x\bf{x} is an estimate of the class posterior probability pertaining to the class of functions of the model applied to a given dataset. It can be regarded as a score (or estimate) for the true posterior probability, which ca…

2019-09-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Novel method for SDE calibration from sparse data using neural flows.

problem Calibrating SDEs from sparse, noisy observations.
method Characterization of posterior SDE using neural networks trained to solve a PDE with multiplicative updates.
result Significant improvement in scalability and accuracy compared to classical methods.

A fast method approximates likelihood scores for noisy linear inverse problems.

problem Solving noisy linear inverse problems efficiently.
method Proposes a simple closed-form approximation to the likelihood score for diffusion and flow-based models.
result Significantly faster than baseline methods while maintaining competitive or better reconstruction performances.

CP4SBI improves the calibration of credible sets in SBI models.

problem Inaccurate credible sets in SBI models lead to underestimation of true parameters.
method Develops a local conformal calibration framework for SBI models.
result Improves the quality of uncertainty quantification for neural posterior estimators.

A new method for generating synthetic data using posterior distribution learning accelerates inference.

problem Generating high-quality synthetic data requires many discretization steps, which is computationally expensive.
method Learning the posterior distribution of clean data samples given noisy versions, using a scoring rule instead of regression loss.
result Consistently outperforms standard diffusion models at few discretization steps.

Paper tackles model vulnerabilities by reconstructing training data.

problem Reconstructing training data from model parameters poses a security risk.
method Developed a mathematical framework and score matching method for both Bayesian and non-Bayesian models.
result First score matching framework for reconstructing data in Bayesian models.

New method uses neural exponential families for likelihood-free inference.

problem Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference with intractable likelihood.
method Score Matching neural conditional exponential families for approximate likelihood.
result State-of-the-art performance in posterior sampling for intractable likelihood models.