The paper analyzes sparse high-dimensional linear regression with random design and unknown error variance, providing adaptiveness and concentration rates.
problem Sparse high-dimensional linear regression with random design and unknown error variance.
method Analysis of posterior concentration rates, employing techniques to address model misspecification.
result Adaptiveness and concentration rates of the posterior for sparse high-dimensional linear regression.
New theory for BNNs with Gaussian priors achieves optimal posterior concentration rates.
problem Lack of theoretical results for BNNs with Gaussian priors.
method New approximation theory for non-sparse DNNs with bounded parameters.
result BNNs with non-sparse general priors can achieve near-minimax optimal posterior concentration rates.
Bayesian model infers factor dimensionality and sparse loading matrix adaptively.
problem Inference of high-dimensional sparse factor model with varying sparsity and factor dimensions.
method Adaptive Bayesian sparse factor model with posterior concentration.
result Posterior distribution asymptotically concentrates on true factor dimensionality and sparsity.
Develops a fast variational approximation for high-dimensional empirical Bayes posteriors.
problem Optimal posterior computation in high-dimensional settings with prior tails effect.
method Variational approximation of empirical Bayes posterior with data-driven centers and thin-tailed conjugate priors.
result Retains optimal concentration rate properties and superior performance compared to existing methods.
Bayesian inference for Levy density with Gibbs posterior in discrete sampling.
problem Inference on Levy density for financial models with jumps.
method Gibbs posterior framework using a loss function for intractable likelihood.
result Gibbs posterior achieves nearly optimal rate of convergence under certain conditions.
Improved sampling for high-dimensional posteriors with underdamped Langevin.
problem Scalability issues in high-dimensional problems with approximate Thompson sampling.
method Underdamped Langevin Monte Carlo for accelerated posterior concentration.
result Logarithmic regret improvement from i l d e O ( d ) \mathcal{ ilde O}(d) i l d e O ( d ) to i l d e O ( d ) \mathcal{ ilde O}(\sqrt{d}) i l d e O ( d ) . Study improves convergence rates for GVI under prior misspecification.
problem Improving convergence rates for GVI under prior misspecification.
method Proves rates of convergence and robustness to prior misspecification in GVI framework.
result Establishes sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of GVI posteriors.
Study improves fractional posterior for 1-bit matrix completion.
problem Estimating a binary matrix from observed entries.
method Fractional posterior approach with low-rank factorization and spectral scaled Student priors.
result Concentration results for fractional posterior, demonstrating effectiveness in matrix recovery.
Bayesian PINNs learn elliptic PDEs with near-minimax posterior contraction rate.
problem Learning elliptic PDEs with noisy data and non-homogeneous boundary conditions.
method Bayesian approach with a Hölder space prior on neural network weights.
result Posterior contracts at near-minimax rate without prior knowledge of solution smoothness.
Bayesian neural networks explore rare fluctuations for better feature learning.
problem Understanding rare but dominant fluctuations in Bayesian neural networks.
method Large-deviation theory and joint optimization over predictors and internal kernels.
result Posterior rate function optimization reveals data-dependent kernel selection.
Spike-and-Slab Deep Learning (SS-DL) is a fully Bayesian alternative to Dropout for improving generalizability of deep ReLU networks. This new type of regularization enables provable recovery of smooth input-output maps with unknown levels of smoothness. Indeed, we show that the posterior distribution concentrates at t…
Advocates for a new posterior that predicts better than classical and generalised Bayes.
problem Combining parameter inference and density estimation for better predictive models.
method Predictively Oriented (PrO) posterior using mean field Langevin dynamics.
result PrO posteriors converge to the predictively optimal model average, adapting to model misspecification.
This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and identifiability in prediction market outcomes from price-volume histories.
method Formulates prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems, introduces a log-odds observation model, and derives posterior uncertainty quantification and identifiability criteria.
result Explicit diagnostics for informative and stable inference regimes, and validation through synthetic data experiments.
New BNN model proves optimal posterior concentration and enables practical inference.
problem Improving generalization and uncertainty quantification in deep neural networks.
method Proposes a new node-sparse BNN model with theoretical guarantees and a novel MCMC algorithm for inference.
result Proves near minimax optimal posterior concentration rate and adaptiveness to true model smoothness.
OPSRL algorithm reduces regret with few samples in reinforcement learning.
problem High regret in reinforcement learning with limited data.
method Optimistic Posterior Sampling (OPSRL) with logarithmic sample complexity.
result Guaranteed high-probability regret bound of O ~ ( H 3 S A T ) \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{H^3SAT}) O ( H 3 S A T ) . Bayesian nonparametric models get better posterior estimates via SPDE methods.
problem Estimating posterior distributions in nonparametric Bayesian models.
method Extending diffusion methods to SPDEs on Hilbert spaces for posterior contraction and Laplace approximation.
result Derivation of posterior contraction rates and finite-sample Bernstein von Mises results.
Thompson sampling for multi-armed bandit problems is known to enjoy favorable performance in both theory and practice. However, it suffers from a significant limitation computationally, arising from the need for samples from posterior distributions at every iteration. We propose two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) meth…
We propose an input design method for a general class of parametric probabilistic models, including nonlinear dynamical systems with process noise. The goal of the procedure is to select inputs such that the parameter posterior distribution concentrates about the true value of the parameters; however, exact computation…
TGD improves conditional sampling by concentrating computation on promising trajectories.
problem Efficiently training-free conditional sampling with diffusion priors.
method Tempered Guided Diffusion (TGD) using annealed sequential Monte Carlo.
result TGD yields a consistent particle approximation to the posterior as the number of particles grows.
PBI inference may not be calibrated if predictive model is inaccurate.
problem Uncertainty quantification in PBI may be unreliable if the predictive model is not accurate.
method Predictive Bayesian inference with a forward predictive model.
result Posterior concentration depends on the predictive model, leading to potential calibration issues.
A new method improves uncertainty quantification in Bayesian inference.
problem Poor uncertainty quantification in traditional Gibbs posteriors.
method Sequential Gibbs posteriors with a Bernstein-von Mises theorem.
result Sequential Gibbs posteriors provide better frequentist coverage.
New approach to quantify posterior concentration rates using Wasserstein dynamics.
problem Quantifying the speed of posterior distribution concentration in Bayesian statistics.
method Combining local Lipschitz-continuity with dynamic formulation of Wasserstein distance.
result Optimal posterior contraction rates in finite and infinite-dimensional models.
MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
problem MFVI underestimates posterior variance
method Analyzing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression
result MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
Develops a Bayesian framework for portfolio choice with a new posterior distribution.
problem Estimation risk in parametric portfolio policies.
method Generalized Bayesian framework with Gibbs posterior, utility maximization, and KNEEDLE algorithm.
result Optimal scaling parameter λ λ λ controls the balance between prior and data. The paper improves Bayesian precision matrix estimation for high-dimensional sparse data.
problem Estimating sparse precision matrices in high-dimensional settings.
method Tempered posterior with fully specified horseshoe prior.
result Concentration results and theoretical oracle inequality for posterior.
A new inference method using regression and batched discrepancies.
problem Simulating parameters from simulator outputs.
method Regression-based projection and batched discrepancy weighting.
result Method produces a self-normalized pseudo-posterior.
Proposes HDBEN for heteroscedastic regression with improved sparsity and variance modeling.
problem Violation of constant error variance in high-dimensional regression.
method HDBEN framework using hierarchical Bayesian priors with ℓ 1 \ell_1 ℓ 1 and ℓ 2 \ell_2 ℓ 2 penalties. result Achieves posterior concentration, variable selection consistency, and asymptotic normality.
Preconditioned neural posterior estimation improves reliability in misspecified models.
problem Reliability issues in neural posterior estimation for misspecified models.
method Preconditioning with data-dependent weights and forest-proximity scores to stabilize and improve accuracy.
result Preconditioned robust neural posterior estimation increases stability and accuracy over standard methods.
FMM fails to accurately determine the number of components even with consistent posterior.
problem Determining the number of subpopulations in a data set using FMM.
method Analysis of FMM component-count posterior under model misspecification.
result FMM component-count posterior diverges under model misspecification, contrary to intuition.
VPR improves posterior uncertainty quantification by combining VI and predictive resampling.
problem Inaccurate posterior sampling with MCMC due to computational constraints.
method Variational predictive resampling (VPR) that uses VI's predictive strength and imputes future observations.
result VPR converges to the exact Bayesian posterior in a Gaussian location model and improves uncertainty quantification.
A new method for efficient inference in sequential latent-variable models.
problem Computational challenges in integrating subject-specific random effects.
method Anchored variational inference framework to approximate posterior distributions.
result The method achieves accurate estimation with significant computational gains.
Study on Dirichlet process mixtures for clustering consistency.
problem Consistency of clustering with Dirichlet process mixtures.
method Analysis of posterior distribution as sample size increases, focusing on consistency for the number of clusters.
result Consistency for the number of clusters can be achieved with a properly adapted concentration parameter in a Bayesian setting.
Bayesian DDR models complex multivariate distributions.
problem Modeling relationships between multivariate distributions with differing dimensions.
method Generalized Bayesian framework using sliced Wasserstein distance and MALA for inference.
result Posterior consistency and robust fits demonstrated in simulations and real data.
Paper improves PAC-Bayes bounds using a better-than-KL divergence.
problem Estimating the generalization error of stochastic algorithms.
method Developed new PAC-Bayes bounds with a novel divergence.
result Achieved strictly tighter bounds than the KL divergence.
Improved Thompson Sampling using fractional posteriors achieves better regret bounds.
problem Optimizing regret in stochastic multi-armed bandit problems.
method Using α \alpha α -posterior distributions, derived frequentist regret bounds. result Instance-dependent and instance-independent regret bounds established.
Paper establishes statistical validity for variational Bayes in neural networks.
problem Lack of theoretical validity for Variational Bayes in Bayesian Neural Networks.
method Establishes posterior consistency for mean-field variational posterior in feed-forward neural networks.
result Proves VP concentrates around Hellinger neighborhoods of true density function under certain conditions.
Prequential posteriors tackle data assimilation for deep generative forecasting models.
problem Challenges in assimilating data into deep generative forecasting models due to intractable likelihood functions.
method Introduces prequential posteriors based on a predictive-sequential loss function, proving consistency under mild conditions, and using parallelizable SMC samplers for scalable inference.
result Prequential posteriors concentrate around parameters with optimal predictive performance, validating method on synthetic and real-world datasets.
The paper proposes a method to improve Bayesian inference for periodic data using data-driven priors.
problem Efficiency in approximating posterior distribution in models with periodicity.
method Construct a prior distribution from data using a Gaussian process with a periodic kernel, approximated using adaptive importance sampling.
result The proposed method improves the marginal posterior distribution of the period parameter.
A new method improves SNPE for intractable likelihood models.
problem Simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods.
method Adaptive calibration kernel and variance reduction techniques.
result The proposed method provides a better approximation of the posterior.
High-dimensional unimodal distributions can cause MCMC methods to fail.
problem Failure of MCMC methods in high-dimensional unimodal distributions.
method Examples and theoretical analysis of MCMC methods, including Metropolis-Hastings adjusted methods.
result MCMC methods can take an exponential run-time for high-dimensional unimodal distributions.
The paper analyzes contraction rates for GP regression approximations.
problem Computational infeasibility of exact GP posterior in large-scale applications.
method Lanczos and conjugate gradient approximations of the posterior mean.
result Minimax contraction rates for these approximations in large-scale applications.
Paper presents a fast method for estimating hidden states in Bayesian models.
problem Estimating hidden states in Bayesian state space models efficiently.
method Amortized simulation-based inference with pretraining.
result The method achieves sufficient accuracy and fast inference times.
New algorithm learns LQR with O ( T ) O(\sqrt{T}) O ( T ) regret using Langevin dynamics and excitation.
problem Learning LQR with a O ( T ) O(\sqrt{T}) O ( T ) regret bound. method Thompson sampling with Langevin dynamics and excitation mechanism.
result Achieved O ( T ) O(\sqrt{T}) O ( T ) regret bound for LQR learning. Bayesian neural networks struggle with accuracy and uncertainty quantification in complex models.
problem Challenges in achieving high predictive performance and reliable uncertainty estimates in Bayesian neural networks.
method Investigates computational costs, accuracy, and uncertainty quantification in Bayesian neural networks with different inference techniques.
result Variational inference provides better uncertainty quantification than Markov chain Monte Carlo, and stacking/ensembling variational approximations can achieve similar accuracy at reduced cost.
DE-PSGLD samples from constrained distributions in a decentralized manner.
problem Sampling from log-concave distributions with constraints.
method Decentralized Proximal Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics with proximal regularization.
result DE-PSGLD converges to a regularized Gibbs distribution and maintains posterior concentration.
Detecting and recovering labels in binomial logistic mixtures is challenging due to an information gap.
problem Detecting and recovering labels in binomial logistic mixtures
method Propose two feasibility-aware inference procedures
result Avoid misleading component selections and improve label probability calibration
Bayesian models can be tricked into believing false data.
problem Vulnerability of Bayesian inference to data poisoning attacks.
method Developed attacks to manipulate Bayesian posterior through deletion and replication of data.
result Demonstrated that Bayesian inference can be steered to target distributions.
In many applications, a finite mixture is a natural model, but it can be difficult to choose an appropriate number of components. To circumvent this choice, investigators are increasingly turning to Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs), and Pitman-Yor process mixtures (PYMs), more generally. While these models may be well…