A new model synthesizes population with fewer structural and sampling zeros.
problem Synthesizing a feasible and diverse synthetic population from limited data.
method A deep generative model with two regularizations to minimize structural zeros and preserve sampling zeros.
result The model significantly improves feasibility and diversity of synthetic populations.
Paper develops a two-population model to assess longevity basis risk.
problem Mismatch between hedger's liability and hedging instrument causes longevity basis risk.
method Develops a two-population mortality model using Lee-Carter model and renewal process.
result Proposed model provides significant risk reduction when mortality jumps and sampling risk are considered.
Aims to describe neural network training dynamics using two-time-scale models.
problem Lack of a general mathematical description of neural network training.
method Introduces a theoretical framework based on two-time-scale population dynamics.
result Derives selection-mutation equations and effective fitness for hyperparameters.
New framework for online control in evolving populations.
problem Control of evolving populations in real-world conditions.
method Online control framework for linear and non-linear dynamical systems.
result Near-optimal regret bounds for gradient-based controllers.
Proposes a federated transfer learning method to improve precision medicine models for underrepresented populations.
problem Underrepresentation of minorities in precision medicine research leads to underperforming risk prediction models.
method Two-way federated transfer learning strategy integrating diverse populations and healthcare institutions.
result Improves risk prediction models for underrepresented populations, reducing performance gaps.
Develops robust learning methods for datasets with sub-populations.
problem Robust performance and generalization to unseen testing populations in datasets with sub-populations.
method Min-max-regret (MMR) formulation for distribution-free robust hierarchical model.
result Empirical MMR enjoys regret guarantees on training and unseen testing populations.
CrowdLLM uses LLMs and generative models to create diverse digital populations.
problem Lack of diversity and accuracy in digital populations created by LLMs.
method Integrates pretrained LLMs and generative models to enhance diversity and fidelity.
result CrowdLLM achieves promising performance in accuracy and distributional fidelity.
CTGAN synthesizes population data for travel behavior simulation.
problem Synthesizing population data for agent-based transportation modeling.
method Composite Travel Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN).
result Consistent and accurate generation of synthetic populations with tabular and sequential mobility data.
Mesoscopic model infers neural population dynamics from spike trains.
problem Challenges in fitting mechanistic spiking networks to empirical population data.
method Fit mesoscopic model to aggregate population activity, using likelihood of single-neuron and connectivity parameters.
result Extracts posterior correlations between model parameters and defines subsets of parameters able to reproduce data.
Develops local population-risk certificates for model updates
problem Model updates in machine learning
method Certify population-risk increments around a model
result Certified upper endpoint yields a risk-controlled update rule
Copula-based method generates synthetic populations from marginal distributions.
problem Generating realistic synthetic populations from limited data.
method Copula-based framework for population synthesis.
result Copula framework enhances transferability and realism of synthetic populations.
With the development of high-throughput technologies, principal component analysis (PCA) in the high-dimensional regime is of great interest. Most of the existing theoretical and methodological results for high-dimensional PCA are based on the spiked population model in which all the population eigenvalues are equal ex…
Existence of Radner equilibrium proven with growing population.
problem Analyzing Radner equilibrium in a model with population growth.
method Proved existence of equilibrium for growing population using mathematical analysis.
result Equilibrium exists for a growing population, with effects on annuity prices.
Measures of wealth and production have been found to scale superlinearly with the population of a city. Therefore, it makes economic sense for humans to congregate together in dense settlements. A recent model of population dynamics showed that population growth can become superexponential due to the superlinear scalin…
Framework generates precise synthetic populations for scalable modeling.
problem Generating accurate synthetic populations without personal data.
method Constraint-programming framework encoding aggregated statistics and structural relations.
result Exact control of demographic profiles without requiring microdata.
ScoreFusion fuses multiple diffusion models to enhance generative modeling of a target population.
problem Enhancing generative modeling of a target population with limited data.
method ScoreFusion uses KL barycenters of auxiliary populations and recasts the learning problem as score matching in denoising diffusion.
result ScoreFusion achieves a dimension-free sample complexity bound in total variation distance.
NeuPL learns diverse policies in strategy games efficiently.
problem Iterative training of policies in strategy games leads to under-trained good-responses and wasteful repetition.
method NeuPL uses a single conditional model to represent a population of policies, offering convergence guarantees and transfer learning.
result NeuPL achieves better performance and efficiency across various domains, enabling access to novel strategies.
Reproductive success and survival are influenced by wealth in human populations. Wealth is transmitted to offsprings and strategies of transmission vary over time and among populations, the main variation being how equally wealth is transmitted to children. Here we propose a model where we simulate both the dynamics of…
The paper proposes a new method for comparing logistic regression models across different populations.
problem Comparing logistic regression models across sub-populations can lead to misleading results.
method Develops a cascading set of equivalence tests for logistic regression models, addressing coding, predictions, and overall accuracy.
result Equivalence testing incentivizes accurate inference and avoids perverse incentives from significance tests.
Paper uses neural networks to calibrate Lee-Carter models for multiple populations.
problem Calibrating Lee-Carter models for multiple populations with neural networks.
method Developed neural network architectures to fit Lee-Carter and Poisson Lee-Carter models simultaneously.
result Smooth and less sensitive parameter estimates, improved forecasting performance.
MFM integrates multiple evolving populations using Wasserstein manifold flows.
problem Learning dynamics of multiple interacting populations evolving over time.
method Meta Flow Matching (MFM) integrates vector fields on Wasserstein manifold using amortized flow models and GNN embeddings.
result MFM improves prediction of individual treatment responses on multi-patient single-cell drug screen data.
Model compression reduces generalization error and increases empirical risk, potentially improving population risk.
problem Improving population risk with model compression.
method Information-theoretic analysis and rate distortion theory.
result Model compression can improve population risk if the decrease in generalization error exceeds the increase in empirical risk.
Neural population activity often exhibits rich variability and temporal structure. This variability is thought to arise from single-neuron stochasticity, neural dynamics on short time-scales, as well as from modulations of neural firing properties on long time-scales, often referred to as "non-stationarity". To better …
In systems biomedicine, an experimenter encounters different potential sources of variation in data such as individual samples, multiple experimental conditions, and multi-variable network-level responses. In multiparametric cytometry, which is often used for analyzing patient samples, such issues are critical. While c…
Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change increment…
Participants enrolled into randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often do not reflect real-world populations. Previous research in how best to translate RCT results to target populations has focused on weighting RCT data to look like the target data. Simulation work, however, has suggested that an outcome model approach …
Many modern data analysis problems involve inferences from streaming data. However, streaming data is not easily amenable to the standard probabilistic modeling approaches, which assume that we condition on finite data. We develop population variational Bayes, a new approach for using Bayesian modeling to analyze strea…
A new method identifies sub-populations in unlabelled heterogeneous data by accounting for co-features.
problem Estimating sub-populations in unlabelled heterogeneous data with co-features.
method Mixture of Conditional Gaussian Graphical Models (CGGM) with penalized EM algorithm.
result The method successfully identifies sub-populations disrupted by co-features.
New method learns population dynamics from snapshots, outperforming existing models.
problem Capturing periodic and other dynamical properties of population dynamics.
method Wasserstein Lagrangian Mechanics (WLM) for learning second-order dynamics from observed marginals.
result WLM outperforms existing methods across various dynamics, including vortex dynamics, embryonic development, and flocking.
A new data set helps estimate continental-scale population distributions.
problem Lack of comprehensive, publicly available data for population estimation.
method Comprehensive data set combining satellite imagery and open-source data.
result Provides a valuable resource for developing population estimation methods.
Model predicts urban population using mobile data traffic.
problem Estimating urban population dynamics from mobile data.
method Data-driven approach combining NetMob 2023 and ENACT datasets.
result NetMob 2023 data can estimate urban population with XGBoost models.
Estimates KL divergence with fairness considerations for sub-populations.
problem Fairly estimate KL divergence between distributions considering sub-populations.
method Proposes multi-group attribution for KL divergence estimation, derived from multi-calibration.
result Shows multi-group attribution provides better KL divergence estimates conditioned on sub-populations.
Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analys…
DICE learns population dynamics from discrete samples.
problem Learning smooth population dynamics from discrete data.
method Discrete Inverse Continuity Equation (DICE) method.
result DICE models are stable and generate representative samples.
The paper develops a method to predict ICU mortality risk across diverse patient populations.
problem Improving patient survival by recognizing risky trajectories during ICU stays.
method Domain adaptation strategies to learn mortality prediction models robust to diverse ICU populations.
result The proposed model outperforms baselines, achieving AUC numbers up to 0.88 for the Cardiac ICU population.
Improves Gaussian process factor models for multi-population recordings.
problem Cubic runtime scaling with trial length and group number limits application to large-scale recordings.
method Two approximate approaches: inducing variables and frequency domain.
result Achieved orders of magnitude speed-up with minimal statistical performance impact.
CLSB models system dynamics from cross-sectional data with population-level regularization.
problem Challenges in modeling system dynamics from limited cross-sectional samples and heterogeneous individual behaviors.
method Introduces CLSB framework for learning dynamics, regularized for population-level temporal variations.
result Empirically superior in single-cell sequencing data analyses, e.g., simulating cell development and drug response.
Machine learning approaches have been effective in predicting adverse outcomes in different clinical settings. These models are often developed and evaluated on datasets with heterogeneous patient populations. However, good predictive performance on the aggregate population does not imply good performance for specific …
Improves flu prediction by blending environment and population info.
problem Challenges in using data from one environment in another due to feature variability and population subgroup differences.
method Population-aware hierarchical Bayesian domain adaptation framework with multiple invariant components.
result Model improves flu prediction in new environments with unlabelled data.
Knowledge graph construction consists of two tasks: extracting information from external resources (knowledge population) and inferring missing information through a statistical analysis on the extracted information (knowledge completion). In many cases, insufficient external resources in the knowledge population hinde…
System exposes study population descriptions in clinical guidelines.
problem Challenges in understanding applicability of clinical guidelines.
method Developed an ontology-enabled prototype system using SIO.
result Allows medical practitioners to better understand study populations.
Paper tackles causal effect identification in sub-population with latent variables.
problem Identify causal effects in a sub-population with latent variables.
method Extend relevant graphical definitions and propose an algorithm for the s-ID problem.
result Sound algorithm for s-ID problem with latent variables.
TMLE improves IPM estimation for ecological population dynamics.
problem Estimating key demographic properties from IPM data.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) for IPMs.
result Robust and efficient estimators for IPM properties.
AICov integrates population covariates for better COVID-19 forecasting.
problem Forecasting COVID-19 with broader social context.
method Integrative deep learning framework with LSTM and multiple data sources.
result Improved prediction of COVID-19 cases and deaths with population risk factors.
Active learning method for neural population dynamics using optogenetics.
problem Efficiently selecting neurons to stimulate for identifying neural population dynamics.
method Developed active learning procedure for low-rank regression to determine informative photostimulation patterns.
result Demonstrated a two-fold reduction in data required for predictive power using low-rank linear dynamical systems model.
This work learns models for population dynamics using variational methods and higher-order quadrature.
problem Modeling population dynamics of physical systems with stochastic and mean-field effects.
method Variational problem to infer gradient fields, combining Monte Carlo sampling with higher-order quadrature rules.
result Accurate prediction of population dynamics over a wide range of parameters.
Develops a weighting framework to generalize ITRs from source to target populations.
problem Challenges in generalizing ITRs from a source population to a target population with differing characteristics.
method A robust sample weighting framework using a reproducing kernel Hilbert space to balance covariates and improve ITR learning methods.
result Improves ITR estimation for the target population compared to other weighting methods.
In many statistical problems, a more coarse-grained model may be suitable for population-level behaviour, whereas a more detailed model is appropriate for accurate modelling of individual behaviour. This raises the question of how to integrate both types of models. Methods such as posterior regularization follow the id…