A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study examines how governance, corruption, and R&D affect economic development.
Venice used 'helicopter money' to subsidize during famine and plague, but it caused instability.
In this paper we present a kinetic model with stochastic game-type interactions, analyzing the relationship between the level of political competition in a society and the degree of economic liberalization. The above issue regards the complex interactions between economy and institutional policies intended to introduce…
This summarizes the study of the financial and economic crisis in Europe. The starting questions were: 1) Why do we have a crisis? Unde venis? 2) What will be the outcome? Quo vadis? Here is the reasoning which touches many areas, ranging from financial to politics and from psychology and economy.
Since beginning of the 2008 financial crisis almost half a trillion euros have been spent to financially assist EU member states in taxpayer-funded bail-outs. These crisis resolutions are often accompanied by austerity programs causing political and social friction on both domestic and international levels. The questio…
Georg de Buquoy, Lord de Vaux, lived in Nove Hrady, Prague and Cerveny Hradek for most of his productive life. From his extensive scientific contributions, both theoretical and experimental, we expand here the discussion of his contributions to mathematical economy. He is mainly celebrated as the first persons to defin…
The paper introduces GAER to assess market feasibility under geopolitical and institutional constraints.
Numerous kinds of uncertainties may affect an economy, e.g. economic, political, and environmental ones. We model the aggregate impact by the uncertainties on an economy and its associated financial market by randomised mixtures of Lévy processes. We assume that market participants observe the randomised mixtures only …
Study examines USD exchange rate dynamics using Kramers-Moyal expansion.
A common assumption of political economy is that profit rates across firms or sectors tend to uniformity, and often models are formulated in which this tendency is assumed to have been realised. But in reality this tendency is never realised and the distribution of firm profits is not degenerate but skewed to the right…
For this special issue, the article aims at discussing a few econophysics problems studied so far rather successfully. The following "applications" in micro-econo-physics are considered : (i) financial crashes; it is emphasized that one can distinguish between endogenous and exogenous causes; (ii) portofolio control, s…
Paper finds political networks reduce bond issuance costs in China.
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
New method predicts political ideology from online activity.
TBIP uses texts to quantify lawmakers' political positions.
There is considerable debate whether the domestic political institutions (specifically, the country s level of democracy) of the host developing country toward foreign investors are effective in establishing the credibility of commitments are still underway, researchers have also analyzed the effect of international in…
One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda acco…
Understanding how political attention is divided and over what subjects is crucial for research on areas such as agenda setting, framing, and political rhetoric. Existing methods for measuring attention, such as manual labeling according to established codebooks, are expensive and can be restrictive. We describe two co…
Study confirms financial bubbles' common patterns in isolated markets.
Based mainly on examples of interest in mechanics, we define the notion of a polite group action. One may view this as not only trying to give a more general notion than properness of a group action, but also to more fully understand the role of invariant functions in describing just about everything of interest in red…
Human stablecoin transactions predict political risk in cryptocurrency markets.
Community detection is a fundamental task in social network analysis. In this paper, first we develop an endorsement filtered user connectivity network by utilizing Heider's structural balance theory and certain Twitter triad patterns. Next, we develop three Nonnegative Matrix Factorization frameworks to investigate th…
Model forecasts hourly electricity demand influenced by weather, socio-economic, and political factors.
A growing number of empirical studies suggest that negative advertising is effective in campaigning, while the mechanisms are rarely mentioned. With the scandal of Cambridge Analytica and Russian intervention behind the Brexit and the 2016 presidential election, people have become aware of the political ads on social m…
This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The pertinent data refers to 43 countries, over 1970-2015, - …
Every year at the United Nations, member states deliver statements during the General Debate discussing major issues in world politics. These speeches provide invaluable information on governments' perspectives and preferences on a wide range of issues, but have largely been overlooked in the study of international pol…
Foreign policy analysis has been struggling to find ways to measure policy preferences and paradigm shifts in international political systems. This paper presents a novel, potential solution to this challenge, through the application of a neural word embedding (Word2vec) model on a dataset featuring speeches by heads o…
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categ…
The paper uses Black-Scholes model to analyze political support and coalition agreements.
Paper presents an econophysics model for mixed economies.
Model predicts political ideology using context vectors to mitigate bias and scarcity.
Study examines Trump's crypto influence on markets, revealing conflicts and vulnerabilities.
Background. In Italy, in recent years, vaccination coverage for key immunizations as MMR has been declining to worryingly low levels. In 2017, the Italian Gov't expanded the number of mandatory immunizations introducing penalties to unvaccinated children's families. During the 2018 general elections campaign, immunizat…
Almost universally, wealth is not distributed uniformly within societies or economies. Even though wealth data have been collected in various forms for centuries, the origins for the observed wealth-disparity and social inequality are not yet fully understood. Especially the impact and connections of human behavior on …
Study models risks for low-carbon economy in Balkan countries, focusing on shadow economy and populism.
News attention to financial intermediaries and crises predicts excess bond premium and macroeconomic movements.
Prediction markets can shape political behavior through persistent signals, not just forecast accuracy.
Anti-ELAB protests affected Hong Kong firms' stock prices, especially those linked to pan-democrats.
The study shows how trade uncertainty affects stock-bond correlations over time.
cMCA uses contrastive learning to identify latent subgroups in political party data.
Policy shifts between Trump and Biden impact ESG investments, creating volatility.
Paper proposes a framework for token economy simulation and wealth distribution.
Machine learning predicts US and EuroZone business cycles with high accuracy.
Defines crisis transitions in pure exchange economies rigorously.
Analyzes how economic policies affect wealth distribution in Bitcoin token economy.
There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections that may prompt radical policy changes. Although several studies have examined …
Paper connects fair machine learning to political philosophy, highlighting flaws in ideal approaches.
We discuss a Pareto macro-economy (a) in a closed system with fixed total wealth and (b) in an open system with average mean wealth and compare our results to a similar analysis in a super-open system (c) with unbounded wealth. Wealth condensation takes place in the social phase for closed and open economies, while it …