PoPPy is a Point Process toolbox based on PyTorch, which achieves flexible designing and efficient learning of point process models. It can be used for interpretable sequential data modeling and analysis, e.g., Granger causality analysis of multi-variate point processes, point process-based simulation and prediction of…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Point Process Learning”
Paper introduces statistical learning for point processes.
problem Statistical learning for point processes in general spaces.
method Combines bivariate innovations and point process cross-validation.
result Statistical learning approach outperforms state of the art.
A new model for point processes without intensity function trade-offs.
problem Inefficiency and trade-offs in existing point process models.
method Point Set Diffusion, a diffusion-based latent variable model.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in point process generation.
While Multiple Instance (MI) data are point patterns -- sets or multi-sets of unordered points -- appropriate statistical point pattern models have not been used in MI learning. This article proposes a framework for model-based MI learning using point process theory. Likelihood functions for point pattern data derived …
Unified framework detects changes in complex system models.
problem Accurate identification of dynamic changes in simulation models.
method Combines machine learning and process-driven simulation modeling.
result Significantly improves change point detection accuracy.
A new method clusters rows of a matrix of point processes.
problem Challenges in analyzing structured point process data.
method Mixture model of multi-level marked point processes, combined with ES algorithm and FPCA.
result An efficient method for clustering rows of a matrix of point processes.
We present a machine learning model for the analysis of randomly generated discrete signals, modeled as the points of an inhomogeneous, compound Poisson point process. Like the wavelet scattering transform introduced by Mallat, our construction is naturally invariant to translations and reflections, but it decouples th…
Point processes are becoming very popular in modeling asynchronous sequential data due to their sound mathematical foundation and strength in modeling a variety of real-world phenomena. Currently, they are often characterized via intensity function which limits model's expressiveness due to unrealistic assumptions on i…
New method learns spatiotemporal dynamics from random point process observations.
problem Challenges in modeling spatiotemporal dynamics from randomly collected data.
method Integration of neural differential equations, neural point processes, implicit neural representations, and amortized variational inference.
result Significant improvements in predictive accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods.
The paper introduces a method to probabilistically select inducing points in sparse Gaussian processes.
problem The challenge is selecting the optimal number of inducing points in sparse Gaussian processes.
method A point process prior is applied to the inducing points, and the posterior is approximated using stochastic variational inference.
result The model learns which and how many inducing points to use, leading to fewer inducing points being preferred as they become less informative.
New algorithms for online MAP inference and learning for NDPPs.
problem Online inference and learning for nonsymmetric determinantal point processes.
method Single-pass algorithms with sub-linear memory usage.
result Comparable performance to offline algorithms with multiple passes.
New test for point processes without strong model assumptions.
problem Testing local independence in point processes without strong model assumptions.
method Expansion similar to Volterra expansions to represent marginalized intensities.
result Approximation of true marginalized intensity arbitrarily well.
A new model uses neural networks to efficiently learn multivariate temporal point processes.
problem Efficiently modeling multivariate temporal point processes with low parameter complexity.
method Modeling the cumulative hazard function with neural networks for each variate.
result The proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on data fitting and event prediction tasks.
Meta-learning improves event prediction from short sequences.
problem Predicting events from short sequences is challenging.
method Meta-learning approach using recurrent neural networks and monotonic neural networks.
result Meta-learning enhances long-term prediction performance.
EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.
problem Forecasting errors in autoregressive models for event sequences.
method EventFlow uses flow matching to learn joint distributions over event times directly.
result EventFlow reduces forecast error by 20%-53% compared to baselines.
A parametric point process model is developed, with modeling based on the assumption that sequential observations often share latent phenomena, while also possessing idiosyncratic effects. An alternating optimization method is proposed to learn a "registered" point process that accounts for shared structure, as well as…
Determinantal point process have recently been used as models in machine learning and this has raised questions regarding the characterizations of conditional independence. In this paper we investigate characterizations of conditional independence. We describe some conditional independencies through the conditions on t…
This paper introduces the factorial marked temporal point process model and presents efficient learning methods. In conventional (multi-dimensional) marked temporal point process models, event is often encoded by a single discrete variable i.e. a marker. In this paper, we describe the factorial marked point processes w…
Develops methods to answer counterfactual questions in temporal point processes.
problem Lack of counterfactual analysis in temporal point process models.
method Causal model of thinning based on Gumbel-Max structural causal model, superposition theorem, and sampling algorithm.
result Simulation of counterfactual realizations provides valuable insights for targeted interventions.
UNIPoint universally approximates point process intensities.
problem How to precisely describe the flexibility of point process models.
method Proof using Stone-Weierstrass Theorem, transfer functions, and recurrent neural networks.
result UNIPoint performs better than other models on synthetic and real-world datasets.
Paper introduces a novel point process model for graph data using GNNs.
problem Modeling discrete event data over graphs with influence kernel.
method Combines Hawkes kernel and Graph Neural Networks (GNN) for event prediction.
result Achieves superior predictive performance compared to state-of-the-art.
Proposes IGN for scalable Gaussian process networks.
problem Scalability and expressivity challenges in Gaussian processes.
method Inducing Gaussian process networks with learned inducing points.
result Significant advances over state-of-the-art methods.
Survey on modeling event sequences through temporal processes.
problem Modeling phenomena with sequences of events over continuous time.
method Probabilistic models based on point processes, categorized into simple, marked, and spatio-temporal.
result Analysis of existing approaches and their applicability to prediction and modeling.
Paper introduces a neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel for complex event data.
problem Modeling complex, non-stationary, and dependent discrete event data.
method Neural Spectral Marked Point Processes (NSMPP) with a versatile non-stationary influence kernel.
result NSMPP outperforms state-of-the-art models on synthetic and real data.
Paper develops a method to predict spatial point processes with guarantees.
problem Predicting the number of events in space with uncertainty.
method Regularized method to learn spatial models with out-of-sample guarantees.
result Method provides valid prediction intervals even when model is misspecified.
Develops variational inference for Neyman-Scott processes for faster sampling.
problem Slow mixing time in MCMC for posterior sampling in Neyman-Scott processes.
method Variational inference algorithm for Neyman-Scott processes, minimizing KL divergence.
result Achieves better prediction performance than MCMC with limited computational time.
VAR-GPs solve continual learning by updating posteriors sequentially.
problem Catastrophic forgetting in sequential learning tasks.
method Sparse inducing point approximations and auto-regressive variational distribution.
result VAR-GPs prevent catastrophic forgetting and outperform baselines.
Learning Granger causality for general point processes is a very challenging task. In this paper, we propose an effective method, learning Granger causality, for a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. We reveal the relationship between Hawkes process's impact function and its Granger caus…
Develops a deep non-stationary kernel for non-stationary spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Capturing non-stationary dependencies in point process data.
method Approximates the influence kernel with a novel low-rank decomposition and introduces a log-barrier penalty to maintain non-negativity.
result Demonstrates superior performance and computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art methods.
New method for fast inference in diffusion models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in diffusion models.
method Variational Gaussian Process, exponential family description, convex optimization.
result Improved fast algorithm for learning model parameters.
Variational autoencoder models dynamic latent graphs for neural point processes.
problem Modeling event dynamics with changing trends over time.
method Sequential latent variable model with dynamic latent graphs.
result Higher accuracy in predicting inter-event times and event types.
The paper simplifies influence computations for large-scale machine learning models.
problem Improving training efficiency and accuracy in large-scale models.
method Study influence functions, define memorization, simplify computations.
result Influence functions can be practical for large-scale models, indicating memorization.
The paper models user-advertiser interactions using point processes.
problem Causal inference problems in user-advertiser interaction.
method Temporal marked point processes and neural point processes.
result Neural point processes as practical solutions.
Paper introduces a new gradient estimator for SNNs.
problem High variance in score function gradient estimator impedes SNNs training.
method Developed a differentiable point process to derive path-wise gradient estimator.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of path-wise gradient estimator through simulations.
Bayesian optimization with Gaussian processes speeds up searches for stationary points.
problem Accelerating searches for stationary points on potential energy surfaces.
method Unified Bayesian optimization view using Gaussian process regression with derivative observations, inverse-distance kernels, and active learning.
result Surrogates can reduce the number of expensive electronic structure evaluations by an order of magnitude.
The paper analyzes when credal sets stabilize under iterative updates in machine learning.
problem When do credal sets stabilize under iterative updates in machine learning?
method Fixed-point theorems for credal set updates.
result The paper provides the first analysis of credal set stability.
Paper proposes a simple estimator for DPP correlation kernels.
problem Estimating the correlation kernel matrix of DPPs.
method Closed-form estimator for correlation kernel, easy to implement.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator proved.
Social goods, such as healthcare, smart city, and information networks, often produce ordered event data in continuous time. The generative processes of these event data can be very complex, requiring flexible models to capture their dynamics. Temporal point processes offer an elegant framework for modeling event data …
As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract many researchers in statistics and computer science these years because they capt…
Method identifies regions of maximum dissimilarity in stochastic processes.
problem Comparing local characteristics of two random processes to find periods of maximum dissimilarity.
method Bayesian inference with integrated nested Laplace approximation for stochastic processes.
result Identifies regions of maximum dissimilarity with a certain volume.
Paper models COVID-19 spread as spatio-temporal point processes.
problem Understanding complex spacetime propagation of COVID-19.
method Generative and intensity-free model using adversarial imitation learning.
result Imitation learning framework for scalable model inference.
New algorithm predicts spatio-temporal events with improved accuracy.
problem Non-stationary spatio-temporal prediction on dense and sparse sequences.
method Probabilistic approach using point processes and self-organizing decision trees.
result Significant performance improvements over baseline and state-of-the-art methods.
We investigate the systematic mechanism for designing fast mixing Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to sample from discrete point processes under the Dobrushin uniqueness condition for Gibbs measures. Discrete point processes are defined as probability distributions over all subsets $S\in 2^…
A novel method for efficiently integrating spatiotemporal point processes.
problem Challenges in integrating spatiotemporal neural point processes, especially for flexible intensity functions.
method AutoSTPP (Automatic Integration for Spatiotemporal Neural Point Processes) extends a dual network approach to 3D STPP using ProdNet for decomposable parametrization of the integral network.
result AutoSTPP effectively sidesteps computational complexities and shows significant advantage in recovering complex intensity functions.
Optimizes functions on manifolds using Gaussian processes and graph models.
problem Optimizing functions on unknown manifolds with limited data.
method Graph Gaussian process surrogate model for sequential optimization.
result Established regret bounds for the proposed algorithm.
Deep Mixture Point Processes: Spatio-temporal Event Prediction with Rich Contextual Informationstat.ML
Predicting when and where events will occur in cities, like taxi pick-ups, crimes, and vehicle collisions, is a challenging and important problem with many applications in fields such as urban planning, transportation optimization and location-based marketing. Though many point processes have been proposed to model eve…
We introduce Graph Neural Processes (GNP), inspired by the recent work in conditional and latent neural processes. A Graph Neural Process is defined as a Conditional Neural Process that operates on arbitrary graph data. It takes features of sparsely observed context points as input, and outputs a distribution over targ…
This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta LEarning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from short event sequence data along with a relational network. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian mixture Hawkes process model, whi…