This paper uses basket option formulas to price vanilla options with discrete dividends.
problem Pricing vanilla options on stocks with discrete cash dividends.
method Uses existing basket option formulas for European options on a single asset with cash dividends in the piecewise lognormal model.
result Explains the use of basket option formulas for a specific problem in the piecewise lognormal model.
Paper presents new expansions for option pricing with cash dividends.
problem No exact formula for European options with cash dividends.
method Uses Etore and Gobet's technique for piecewise lognormal process with jumps.
result Provides more robust first, second, and third-order expansions.
Modified lognormal distribution with flexible tails for skewed data.
problem Skewed and fat-tailed data in natural and engineering datasets.
method Developed a family of three-parameter non-Gaussian probability density functions based on generalized kappa-exponential and kappa-logarithm functions.
result Closed-form analytic expressions for statistical functions and maximum-likelihood estimation.
Lower bound found for volatility swap in SABR model.
problem Finding a lower bound for volatility swap in SABR model.
method Short time to maturity limit analysis of conditionally lognormal SABR model.
result Zero vanna implied volatility is a lower bound for volatility swap strike.
This paper bridges Kahler geometry and quantum mechanics in lognormal statistical models.
problem Evolution of spectral curves in Siegel Jacobi space through Schrodinger equation.
method Kahler geometry induced on lognormal statistical manifold, Dombrowski's construction.
result Time-dependent Schrodinger equation with varying energy.
Analyzes premium data of Indian non-life insurers, finding GEV distribution best fits Lognormal and GEV extremes.
problem Modeling premiums of non-life insurance companies in India.
method Empirical analysis using Lognormal, GEV, and GPD distributions.
result Generalized Extreme Value distribution best fits premium data for ten Indian non-life insurers.
Lognormal random variables appear naturally in many engineering disciplines, including wireless communications, reliability theory, and finance. So, too, does the sum of (correlated) lognormal random variables. Unfortunately, no closed form probability distribution exists for such a sum, and it requires approximation. …
The paper presents an approximate formula for European mortgage options pricing.
problem Pricing European mortgage options with accuracy and efficiency.
method Approximation of the underlying price distribution using lognormal distributions and matching moments.
result The proposed formula provides a good approximation with high accuracy compared to Monte Carlo simulations.
Study benchmarks cryptocurrency risk using GBM, revealing Lognormal limitations.
problem Tackles limitations of Lognormal assumption in modeling cryptocurrency volatility and VaR.
method Applies Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) with Maximum Likelihood Estimation and correlated Monte Carlo Simulation.
result Observed limitations of Lognormal assumption in cryptocurrency volatility and VaR calculations.
We prove lognormal distribution for symmetric perceptron model, solving key conjectures.
problem Understanding the performance of learning algorithms in neural networks.
method Lognormal distribution characterization and small graph conditioning method.
result Established lognormal distribution and several conjectures for the symmetric perceptron model.
Paper introduces new approximations for lognormal sums, matching comonotonicity and moments.
problem Approximating sums of lognormal random variables accurately.
method Introduces new approximations based on weighted distribution theory, emphasizing comonotonicity and moment matching.
result Approximations perform better than classical methods, especially in the right tail of the distribution.
We derive variance-optimal hedging strategies for SABR and rough Bergomi models.
problem Finding efficient hedging strategies in lognormal SABR and rough Bergomi models.
method Analytic expressions for variance-optimal hedging strategies and mean-square hedging errors.
result The variance-optimal hedging strategy in SABR coincides with Delta adjustment.
Based on the work of Suzuki (2002), we consider a generalization of Merton's asset valuation approach (Merton, 1974) in which two firms are linked by cross-ownership of equity and liabilities. Suzuki's results then provide no arbitrage prices of firm values, which are derivatives of exogenous asset values. In contrast …
Instantaneous volatility of logarithmic return in the lognormal fractional SABR model is driven by the exponentiation of a correlated fractional Brownian motion. Due to the mixed nature of driving Brownian and fractional Brownian motions, probability density for such a model is less studied in the literature. We show i…
We invert the Black-Scholes formula. We consider the cases low strike, large strike, short maturity and large maturity. We give explicitly the first 5 terms of the expansions. A method to compute all the terms by induction is also given. At the money, we have a closed form formula for implied lognormal volatility in te…
Paper improves stochastic collocation for local volatility models.
problem Improving local volatility models for assets with boundaries.
method Applied stochastic collocation to lognormal distributions, derived analytical local volatility.
result Simple analytical Dupire local volatility derived from option prices.
We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal model and of the Hull and White model. The lognormal model well describes the pd…
Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time scales. It is shown that while chi-square superstatistics works well on a time scale…
First, we show that implied normal volatility is intimately linked with the incomplete Gamma function. Then, we deduce an expansion on implied normal volatility in terms of the time-value of a European call option. Then, we formulate an equivalence between the implied normal volatility and the lognormal implied volatil…
Typically, operational risk losses are reported above some threshold. This paper studies the impact of ignoring data truncation on the 0.999 quantile of the annual loss distribution for operational risk for a broad range of distribution parameters and truncation levels. Loss frequency and severity are modelled by the P…
We examine in this article the pricing of target volatility options in the lognormal fractional SABR model. A decomposition formula by Ito's calculus yields a theoretical replicating strategy for the target volatility option, assuming the accessibilities of all variance swaps and swaptions. The same formula also sugges…
We consider a simple stochastic model of a urban rental housing market, in which the interaction of tenants and landlords induces rent fluctuations. We simulate the model numerically and measure the equilibrium rent distribution, which is found to be close to a lognormal law. We also study the influence of the density …
We empirically investigate distributions of individual consumption expenditure f or four commodity categories conditional on fixed income levels. The data stems from the Family Expenditure Survey carried out annually in the United Kingdom. W e use graphical techniques to test for normality and lognormality of these dis…
Lognormal distribution used for predicting team rankings in an orienteering relay race.
problem Predicting final team rankings in an orienteering relay race.
method Used lognormal distribution and Fenton-Wilkinson approximations for order statistics.
result Accurate predictions of team rankings using order statistics.
New approach improves computational efficiency of Bass Local Volatility model.
problem Eliminate interpolation and improve computational efficiency in local volatility models.
method Combines local quadratic estimation and lognormal mixture tails for state price densities; uses trapezoidal rule for numerical convolutions.
result Proposed method outperforms traditional numerical methods in option pricing and market case studies.
We use partial actions, as formalized by Exel, to construct various commensurating actions. We use this in the context of groups piecewise preserving a geometric structure, and we interpret the transfixing property of these commensurating actions as the existence of a model for which the group acts preserving the geome…
In the present paper, given an evolving mixture of probability densities, we define a candidate diffusion process whose marginal law follows the same evolution. We derive as a particular case a stochastic differential equation (SDE) admitting a unique strong solution and whose density evolves as a mixture of Gaussian d…
This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the consumer expenditure distribution in India during 1982-2007. We have used the National Sample Survey Organization data and analysed the expenditure distribution for the urban and rural sectors. It is found that this distribution is a mixture of two distribut…
Vanna-Volga is a popular method for the interpolation/extrapolation of volatility smiles. The technique is widely used in the FX markets context, due to its ability to consistently construct the entire Lognormal smile using only three Lognormal market quotes. However, the derivation of the Vanna-Volga method itself is …
We introduce and analyze a linear kinetic model that describes the evolution of the probability density of the number of firms in a society, in which the microscopic rate of change obeys to the so-called law of proportional effect proposed by Gibrat. Despite its apparent simplicity, the possible mean field limits of th…
Neural network models improve survival analysis with reduced computation time.
problem Limited expressiveness of standard survival models.
method Piecewise neural network models of hazard and density functions.
result Models outperform state-of-the-art models with less computation time.
The paper extends a variance gamma model to quadratic functions, reducing arbitrage and computational costs.
problem Creating an arbitrage-free interpolation for option pricing models.
method Generalizing the local variance gamma model to a piecewise quadratic local variance function.
result The quadratic model results in an arbitrage-free interpolation of class C3, reducing knots and computational cost.
New GP model estimates piecewise continuous functions.
problem Piecewise continuous regression functions in scientific and engineering applications.
method Local Gaussian process model with partitioned local data and joint estimation of boundaries.
result Superior performance over conventional GP models in estimating piecewise regression functions.
In the limit of infinite number of nodes (agents), the Itô-reduced Bouchaud-Mézard network model of economic exchange has a time-independent mean and a steady-state inverse gamma distribution. We show that for a finite number of nodes the mean is actually distributed as a time-dependent lognormal and inverse gamma is q…
A dynamic model of the social relations between workers and capitalists is introduced. The model is deduced from the assumption that the law of value is an organising principle of modern economies. The model self-organises into a dynamic equilibrium with statistical properties that are in close qualitative and in many …
We report empirical studies on the personal income distribution, and clarify that the distribution pattern of the lognormal with power law tail is the universal structure. We analyze the temporal change of Pareto index and Gibrat index to investigate the change of the inequality of the income distribution. In addition …
In this paper we apply Markovian approximation of the fractional Brownian motion (BM), known as the Dobric-Ojeda (DO) process, to the fractional stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous variance is modelled by a lognormal process with drift and fractional diffusion. Since the DO process is a semi-martingale,…
GraN-GAN normalizes gradients for better GAN performance.
problem Improving image generation in GANs with piecewise linear discriminators.
method Piecewise Gradient Normalization (GraN) for input-dependent normalization.
result Significant performance gains in image generation across various datasets.
New method uses SBI to infer magnetorotational properties of isolated pulsars.
problem Constrain magnetorotational properties of isolated Galactic radio pulsars.
method Combines population synthesis with SBI to model neutron star birth and evolution.
result Inferred μlogB=13.10−0.10+0.08, σlogB=0.45−0.05+0.05 for lognormal distributions. The problem of time-series clustering is considered in the case where each data-point is a sample generated by a piecewise stationary ergodic process. Stationary processes are perhaps the most general class of processes considered in non-parametric statistics and allow for arbitrary long-range dependence between variab…
Proposes adaptive ridge regression for functional linear models with piecewise shapes.
problem Functional linear regression with unknown coefficient function.
method Adaptive piecewise function template with L2 penalization. result Improves predictive power and interpretability compared to standard methods.
Investigates stability of piecewise flat Ricci flow using analysis and simulations.
problem Stability of piecewise flat Ricci flow.
method Linear stability analysis and numerical simulations.
result Adaptations avoided numerical instability and led to convergence to smooth solutions.
PARC uses piecewise linear predictors for regression and classification.
problem Multivariate regression and classification problems.
method Alternates between ridge and softmax regression, and cluster assignment based on accuracy and separability.
result Converges to a local minimum in a finite number of steps.
Optimal fund deployment strategy under uncertain deal arrivals.
problem Deciding when to invest in deals with uncertain future arrivals.
method Formulated as CTMDP, solved via ADP with QMC sampling.
result Developed interpretable acceptance policy outperforming baseline.
New method samples from piecewise smooth distributions using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.
problem Sampling from distributions with discontinuous gradients.
method Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (GRHMC) for piecewise smooth targets.
result GRHMC processes sample from piecewise smooth target distributions with the desired distribution as the invariant distribution.
Neural networks can represent complex piecewise functions efficiently.
problem Representing continuous piecewise affine functions with neural networks.
method Two hidden layers with ReLU activation, O(p) neurons for p pieces. result CPA functions can be represented by a neural network with linear size.
Theorem proves integrability for piecewise-smooth distributions.
problem Integrability of piecewise-smooth distributions.
method Generalizations of Frobenius integrability theorem.
result Sufficient criteria for complete integrability with bi-Lipschitz coordinates.
A hybrid model combines piecewise linear and neural components for interpretable predictions.
problem Post-hoc interpretable methods lead to contradictory explanations and lower prediction accuracy.
method Hybrid model with piecewise linear and neural components.
result The model achieves good interpretability and state-of-the-art accuracy.