A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper examines Indian market bubbles using financial ratios.
Despite remarkable successes, Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is not robust to hyperparameterization, implementation details, or small environment changes (Henderson et al. 2017, Zhang et al. 2018). Overcoming such sensitivity is key to making DRL applicable to real world problems. In this paper, we identify sensitiv…
We propose a novel algorithm for sequential matrix completion in a recommender system setting, where the th entry of the matrix corresponds to a user 's rating of product . The objective of the algorithm is to provide a sequential policy for user-product pair recommendation which will yield the highest pos…
It is widely conjectured that the reason that training algorithms for neural networks are successful because all local minima lead to similar performance, for example, see (LeCun et al., 2015, Choromanska et al., 2015, Dauphin et al., 2014). Performance is typically measured in terms of two metrics: training performanc…
Paper proposes a new activation function to reduce overfitting and large weight update issues.
A matrix completion problem, which aims to recover a complete matrix from its partial observations, is one of the important problems in the machine learning field and has been studied actively. However, there is a discrepancy between the mainstream problem setting, which assumes continuous-valued observations, and some…
Bernard et al. (2015) study an optimal insurance design problem where an individual's preference is of the rank-dependent utility (RDU) type, and show that in general an optimal contract covers both large and small losses. However, their contracts suffer from a problem of moral hazard for paying more compensation for a…
Corrected and improved simulation methods for Dirichlet-Laplace prior.
Although gradient descent (GD) almost always escapes saddle points asymptotically [Lee et al., 2016], this paper shows that even with fairly natural random initialization schemes and non-pathological functions, GD can be significantly slowed down by saddle points, taking exponential time to escape. On the other hand, g…
The paper reviews methods for determining the number of communities in network data.
This paper reports the performances of shallow word-level convolutional neural networks (CNN), our earlier work (2015), on the eight datasets with relatively large training data that were used for testing the very deep character-level CNN in Conneau et al. (2016). Our findings are as follows. The shallow word-level CNN…
Bayesian inference for models that have an intractable partition function is known as a doubly intractable problem, where standard Monte Carlo methods are not applicable. The past decade has seen the development of auxiliary variable Monte Carlo techniques (Møller et al., 2006; Murray et al., 2006) for tackling this pr…
Distillation (Hinton et al., 2015) and privileged information (Vapnik & Izmailov, 2015) are two techniques that enable machines to learn from other machines. This paper unifies these two techniques into generalized distillation, a framework to learn from multiple machines and data representations. We provide theoretica…
This is a brief technical note to clarify some of the issues with applying the application of the algorithm posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) in environments without fixed episodes. In particular, this paper aims to: - Review some of results which have been proven for finite horizon MDPs (Osband et a…
We show that every approximately differentially private learning algorithm (possibly improper) for a class with Littlestone dimension~ requires examples. As a corollary it follows that the class of thresholds over can not be learned in a private manner; this resolves open qu…
We consider a model of robust learning in an adversarial environment. The learner gets uncorrupted training data with access to possible corruptions that may be affected by the adversary during testing. The learner's goal is to build a robust classifier, which will be tested on future adversarial examples. The adversar…
We model the default contagion process in a large heterogeneous financial network under the interventions of a regulator (a central bank) with only partial information which is a more realistic setting than most current literature. We provide the analytical results for the asymptotic optimal intervention policies and t…
AdaNet is a lightweight TensorFlow-based (Abadi et al., 2015) framework for automatically learning high-quality ensembles with minimal expert intervention. Our framework is inspired by the AdaNet algorithm (Cortes et al., 2017) which learns the structure of a neural network as an ensemble of subnetworks. We designed it…
Co-adaptation is a special form of on-line learning where an algorithm must assist an unknown algorithm to perform some task. This is a general framework and has applications in recommendation systems, search, education, and much more. Today, the most common use of co-adaptive algorithms is …
New analysis shows ROI's predictive power for stock returns weakens significantly.
Gradient descent can take exponentially long to escape saddle points in 2D.
Research aims to ensure fair classification across explicit and implicit sensitive features.
We apply mixup regularization to RNNs for improved performance.
We study the problem of recovering the latent ground truth labeling of a structured instance with categorical random variables in the presence of noisy observations. We present a new approximate algorithm for graphs with categorical variables that achieves low Hamming error in the presence of noisy vertex and edge obse…
Standard gradient descent methods are susceptible to a range of issues that can impede training, such as high correlations and different scaling in parameter space.These difficulties can be addressed by second-order approaches that apply a pre-conditioning matrix to the gradient to improve convergence. Unfortunately, s…
In statistical learning, a dataset is often partitioned into two parts: the training set and the holdout (i.e., testing) set. For instance, the training set is used to learn a predictor, and then the holdout set is used for estimating the accuracy of the predictor on the true distribution. However, often in practice, t…
Initialization of parameters in deep neural networks has been shown to have a big impact on the performance of the networks (Mishkin & Matas, 2015). The initialization scheme devised by He et al, allowed convolution activations to carry a constrained mean which allowed deep networks to be trained effectively (He et al.…
Deep latent variable models have become a popular model choice due to the scalable learning algorithms introduced by (Kingma & Welling, 2013; Rezende et al., 2014). These approaches maximize a variational lower bound on the intractable log likelihood of the observed data. Burda et al. (2015) introduced a multi-sample v…
Study on LOB dynamics using mean-field game theory.
Exponential-family harmoniums (EFHs), which extend restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) from Bernoulli random variables to other exponential families (Welling et al., 2005), are generative models that can be trained with unsupervised-learning techniques, like contrastive divergence (Hinton et al. 2006; Hinton, 2002), a…
We introduce a semiparametric approach to neighbor-based classification. We build off the recently proposed Boundary Trees algorithm by Mathy et al.(2015) which enables fast neighbor-based classification, regression and retrieval in large datasets. While boundary trees use an Euclidean measure of similarity, the Differ…
The importance weighted autoencoder (IWAE) (Burda et al., 2016) is a popular variational-inference method which achieves a tighter evidence bound (and hence a lower bias) than standard variational autoencoders by optimising a multi-sample objective, i.e. an objective that is expressible as an integral over Mont…
In this study, we perform a novel analysis of the 2015 financial bubble in the Chinese stock market by calibrating the Log Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model to two important Chinese stock indices, SSEC and SZSC, from early 2014 to June 2015. The back tests of the 2015 Chinese stock market bubbles indicates t…
We study optimal liquidation of a trading position (so-called block order or meta-order) in a market with a linear temporary price impact (Kyle, 1985). We endogenize the pressure to liquidate by introducing a downward drift in the unaffected asset price while simultaneously ruling out short sales. In this setting the l…
In our work, we propose a novel formulation for supervised dimensionality reduction based on a nonlinear dependency criterion called Statistical Distance Correlation, Szekely et. al. (2007). We propose an objective which is free of distributional assumptions on regression variables and regression model assumptions. Our…
New bound improves on weighted majority vote risk estimation.
The deep layers of modern neural networks extract a rather rich set of features as an input propagates through the network. This paper sets out to harvest these rich intermediate representations for quantization with minimal accuracy loss while significantly reducing the memory footprint and compute intensity of the DN…
Defines a new 3D TQFT from non-semisimple categories.
Bayesian inference has great promise for the privacy-preserving analysis of sensitive data, as posterior sampling automatically preserves differential privacy, an algorithmic notion of data privacy, under certain conditions (Dimitrakakis et al., 2014; Wang et al., 2015). While this one posterior sample (OPS) approach e…
We study the problem of detecting the presence of a single unknown spike in a rectangular data matrix, in a high-dimensional regime where the spike has fixed strength and the aspect ratio of the matrix converges to a finite limit. This setup includes Johnstone's spiked covariance model. We analyze the likelihood ratio …
Clustering is a fundamental problem in unsupervised learning. Popular methods like K-means, may suffer from poor performance as they are prone to get stuck in its local minima. Recently, the sum-of-norms (SON) model (also known as the clustering path) has been proposed in Pelckmans et al. (2005), Lindsten et al. (2011)…
Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) is a recently-developed variation of the long short-term memory (LSTM) unit, both of which are types of recurrent neural network (RNN). Through empirical evidence, both models have been proven to be effective in a wide variety of machine learning tasks such as natural language processing (Wen…
The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive study no-arbitrage pricing of financial derivatives in the presence of funding costs, the counterparty credit risk and market frictions affecting the trading mechanism, such as collateralization and capital requirements. To achieve our goals, we extend in severa…
The question why deep learning algorithms generalize so well has attracted increasing research interest. However, most of the well-established approaches, such as hypothesis capacity, stability or sparseness, have not provided complete explanations (Zhang et al., 2016; Kawaguchi et al., 2017). In this work, we focus on…
New method for sequential probability assignment reduces regret using contextual Shtarkov sums.
Neural style transfer, first proposed by Gatys et al. (2015), can be used to create novel artistic work through rendering a content image in the form of a style image. We present a novel method of reconstructing lost artwork, by applying neural style transfer to x-radiographs of artwork with secondary interior artwork …
Spectral algorithms are graph partitioning algorithms that partition a node set of a graph into groups by using a spectral embedding map. Clustering techniques based on the algorithms are referred to as spectral clustering and are widely used in data analysis. To gain a better understanding of why spectral clustering i…
Many model selection algorithms produce a path of fits specifying a sequence of increasingly complex models. Given such a sequence and the data used to produce them, we consider the problem of choosing the least complex model that is not falsified by the data. Extending the selected-model tests of Fithian et al. (2014)…