A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Spectral clustering performance depends on eigenvector fluctuations, shown to be Gaussian.
Bayesian models' singular fluctuation is shown to be akin to specific heat, influencing model complexity and generalization.
In order to emphasize cross-correlations for fluctuations in major market places, series of up and down spins are built from financial data. Patterns frequencies are measured, and statistical tests performed. Strong cross-correlations are emphasized, proving that market moves are collective behaviors.
Quantum annealing (QA) is a generic method for solving optimization problems using fictitious quantum fluctuation. The current device performing QA involves controlling the transverse field; it is classically simulatable by using the standard technique for mapping the quantum spin systems to the classical ones. In this…
Study uses neural networks to predict wall quantities in turbulent flows.
Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a simple but very efficient method for investigating the power-law long-term correlations of non-stationary time series, in which a detrending step is necessary to obtain the local fluctuations at different timescales. We propose to determine the local trends through empirical mo…
The properties of q-dependent cross-correlation matrices of stock market have been analyzed by using the random matrix theory and complex network. The correlation structures of the fluctuations at different magnitudes have unique properties. The cross-correlations among small fluctuations are much stronger than those a…
This paper proposes a framework to predict long-term trends and short-term fluctuations in multivariate time series.
Study shows cryptocurrency price fluctuations become more similar to national currencies over time.
In this paper, a statistical analysis of log-return fluctuations of the IPC, the Mexican Stock Market Index is presented. A sample of daily data covering the period from was analyzed, and fitted to different distributions. Tests of the goodness of fit were performed in order to quantitatively as…
Cryptocurrency forecasting model considers macro, sentiment, and technical indicators.
The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance i…
In Biology, all motor enzymes operate on the same principle: they trap favourable brownian fluctuations in order to generate directed forces and to move. Whether it is possible or not to copy one such strategy to play the market was the starting point of our investigations. We found the answer is yes. In this paper we …
Notwithstanding the significant efforts to develop estimators of long-range correlations (LRC) and to compare their performance, no clear consensus exists on what is the best method and under which conditions. In addition, synthetic tests suggest that the performance of LRC estimators varies when using different genera…
We examine several recently suggested methods for the detection of long-range correlations in data series based on similar ideas as the well-established Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). In particular, we present a detailed comparison between the regular DFA and two recently suggested methods: the Centered Moving A…
We perform an extensive empirical analysis of scaling properties of equity returns, suggesting that financial data show time varying multifractal properties. This is obtained by comparing empirical observations of the weighted generalised Hurst exponent (wGHE) with time series simulated via Multifractal Random Walk (MR…
We study the nature of fluctuations in variety of price indices involving companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The fluctuations at multiple scales are extracted through the use of wavelets belonging to Daubechies basis. The fact that these basis sets satisfy vanishing moments conditions makes them ideal to …
New spectral functionals for Dirac operators with inner fluctuations computed.
We propose a new approach for properly analyzing stochastic time series by mapping the dynamics of time series fluctuations onto a suitable nonequilibrium surface-growth problem. In this framework, the fluctuation sampling time interval plays the role of time variable, whereas the physical time is treated as the analog…
The average economic agent is often used to model the dynamics of simple markets, based on the assumption that the dynamics of many agents can be averaged over in time and space. A popular idea that is based on this seemingly intuitive notion is to dampen electric power fluctuations from fluctuating sources (as e.g. wi…
This work studies fluctuation in multilayer neural networks using mean field theory.
We propose a new approach for analyzing price fluctuations in their strongly correlated regime ranging from minutes to months. This is done by employing a self-similarity assumption for the magnitude of coarse-grained price fluctuation or volatility. The existence of a Cramer function, the characteristic function for s…
We analyze daily prices of 29 commodities and 2449 stocks, each over a period of years. We find that the price fluctuations for commodities have a significantly broader multifractal spectrum than for stocks. We also propose that multifractal properties of both stocks and commodities can be attributed mainl…
Study uses ML to forecast ionospheric scintillation severity.
Trading affects grid frequency fluctuations, making them more extreme.
A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is investigated on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation analysis and their generalizations to higher orders. Non-universal dynamics have been found not only in exponents diff…
Study identifies contagion in aggregated defaults despite environmental changes.
In this paper we compare market price fluctuations with the response to fundamental price drops within the Lux-Marchesi model which is able to reproduce the most important stylized facts of real market data. Major differences can be observed between the decay of spontaneous fluctuations and of changes due to external p…
We address the question of how stock prices respond to changes in demand. We quantify the relations between price change over a time interval and two different measures of demand fluctuations: (a) , defined as the difference between the number of buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trades, and (b) , def…
We perform an analysis of fractal properties of the positive and the negative changes of the German DAX30 index separately using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). By calculating the singularity spectra we show that returns of both signs reveal multiscaling. Curiously, these spectra display a s…
Conservative SPDEs emerge from fluctuating SGD dynamics in neural networks.
Study on price fluctuations in NFT market, showing heavy-tailed distributions and long-range memory.
We analyze the fluctuation of the loss from default around its large portfolio limit in a class of reduced-form models of correlated firm-by-firm default timing. We prove a weak convergence result for the fluctuation process and use it for developing a conditionally Gaussian approximation to the loss distribution. Nume…
Deep networks with orthogonal weights show stable fluctuations, improving generalization and training speed.
In this manuscript we present a comprehensive study on the multifractal properties of high-frequency price fluctuations and instantaneous volatility of the equities that compose Dow Jones Industrial Average. The analysis consists about quantification of dependence and non-Gaussianity on the multifractal character of fi…
Derives scaling limits and fluctuations for SGD in high dimensions.
Study analyzes fluctuations in Mexican financial market index.
We constructed an analog electrical circuit which generates fluctuations in which probability density function has power law tails. In the circuit fluctuations with an arbitrary exponent of the power law can be obtained by adjusting the resistance. With this low cost circuit the random fluctuations which have the simil…
The financial market and turbulence have been broadly compared on account of the same quantitative methods and several common stylized facts they shared. In this paper, the She-Leveque (SL) hierarchy, proposed to explain the anomalous scaling exponents deviated from Kolmogorov monofractal scaling of the velocity fluctu…
Predicting absolute magnitude of fluctuations of price, even if their sign remains unknown, is important for risk analysis and for option prices. In the present work, we display our predictions about absolute magnitude of daily fluctuations of the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA), utilizing the original theory of c…
Graph-based multi-view model predicts trading volume movement from various sources.
We investigate the large-fluctuation dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after the large fluctuations is characterized by a power law, and the exponents usually vary with the strength of the lar…
The paper analyzes fluctuations in ensemble models in high-dimensional settings.
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm and sector level. We describe such fluctuations as independent Lévy-stable fluctu…
In this paper, we present own point of view how the unexpected fluctuations of the long-term real interest rate can be explained. We describe a macroeconomic environment by the modification of the fundamental macroeconomic equilibrium model called the IS-LM model. Last but not least, we suggest a possible cooperation b…
The study reveals the hierarchical structure of the international FOREX market using currency fluctuation distribution similarities.
Stable cooperation emerges in fluctuating environments.
We study the cause of large fluctuations in prices in the London Stock Exchange. This is done at the microscopic level of individual events, where an event is the placement or cancellation of an order to buy or sell. We show that price fluctuations caused by individual market orders are essentially independent of the v…