A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Temporal coarse-graining of latent default paths explains effective correlation in corporate defaults.
problem Understanding effective default correlation in corporate defaults.
method Temporal coarse-graining of latent default-probability paths, applied to corporate default-count data.
result Temporal coarse-graining provides a scale-consistent baseline that improves identifiability and reduces over-allocation of long-horizon fluctuations.
Study online learning in MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback, achieving low regret in both stochastic and adversarial settings.
problem Online learning in finite-horizon episodic MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback.
method Best-of-both-worlds (BOBW) algorithms using FTRL over occupancy measures, self-bounding techniques, and new loss estimators.
result First BOBW algorithms for episodic tabular MDPs with aggregate bandit feedback achieving O(logT) regret in stochastic and O(T) regret in adversarial settings.
We describe the sample paths of the stochastic field F=Ft(v,x,q) of aggregate utilities parameterized by Pareto weights v and total cash amounts x and stocks' quantities q in an economy. We also describe the sample paths of the stochastic field G=Gt(u,y,q), which is conjugate to F with respect to the …
We provide a general construction of time-consistent sublinear expectations on the space of continuous paths. It yields the existence of the conditional G-expectation of a Borel-measurable (rather than quasi-continuous) random variable, a generalization of the random G-expectation, and an optional sampling theorem that…
We provide an explicit aggregation in the neoclassical growth model with aggregate shocks and uninsurable employment risk. We show there are two restrictions on the unemployment shock for approximate aggregation to occur. First the probability of unemployment must be positive for each agent in each time period. That en…
GDP of China is about 11 trillion dollars and GDP of the United States is about 18 trillion dollars. Suppose that we know for the coming years, economy of the US will experience a real growth rate equal to \%3 and economy of China will experience a real growth as of \%6. Now, the question is how long does it take for e…
We address the problem of estimating the parameters of a time-homogeneous Markov chain given only noisy, aggregate data. This arises when a population of individuals behave independently according to a Markov chain, but individual sample paths cannot be observed due to limitations of the observation process or the need…
SGM combines deep learning and planning for robust long-horizon tasks.
problem Combining deep learning and planning for robust long-horizon tasks.
method Sparse Graphical Memory (SGM) that stores states and feasible transitions in a sparse memory, aggregating states according to a two-way consistency objective.
result SGM significantly outperforms current state of the art methods on long horizon, sparse-reward visual navigation tasks.
The celebrated Sequence to Sequence learning (Seq2Seq) technique and its numerous variants achieve excellent performance on many tasks. However, many machine learning tasks have inputs naturally represented as graphs; existing Seq2Seq models face a significant challenge in achieving accurate conversion from graph form …
The length of the geodesic between two data points along a Riemannian manifold, induced by a deep generative model, yields a principled measure of similarity. Current approaches are limited to low-dimensional latent spaces, due to the computational complexity of solving a non-convex optimisation problem. We propose fin…
This paper presents an analytical treatment of economic systems with an arbitrary number of agents that keeps track of the systems' interactions and agents' complexity. This formalism does not seek to aggregate agents. It rather replaces the standard optimization approach by a probabilistic description of both the enti…
We present a neural model for representing snippets of code as continuous distributed vectors ("code embeddings"). The main idea is to represent a code snippet as a single fixed-length code vector, which can be used to predict semantic properties of the snippet. This is performed by decomposing code to a col…
Graph algorithms are key tools in many fields of science and technology. Some of these algorithms depend on propagating information between distant nodes in a graph. Recently, there have been a number of deep learning architectures proposed to learn on undirected graphs. However, most of these architectures aggregate i…
Study aggregation of statistical evidence under unknown dependence using group-invariance.
problem Aggregating statistical evidence under unknown and complex dependence structures.
method Develops a framework using group-invariance and permutation-based constructions to aggregate evidence across transformed datasets.
result Shows uniform improvement in critical values for single-batch aggregation over deterministic calibrations, adapting to unknown dependence structures.