A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study optimal consumption for loss-averse agents considering past spending peaks.
The paper analyzes optimal consumption with past spending maximum as a reference.
Optimizes marketing strategies with practical constraints.
There is, among the economist ecosystem, the idea of virtuous public spending as a form of promotion of economic growth. If we think on the way GDP is measured, it is not possible to get that conclusion because it becomes circular: measuring the money flow obviously will detect directly the public spending but always m…
We determine the optimal amount to invest in a Black-Scholes financial market for an individual who consumes at a rate equal to a constant proportion of her wealth and who wishes to minimize the expected time that her wealth spends in drawdown during her lifetime. Drawdown occurs when wealth is less than some fixed pro…
New framework guides resource usage to achieve sublinear regret in adversarial settings.
This paper improves credit line impact analysis by considering spending as a distribution.
Investors adjust spending based on a social norm, spending less during losses and more during gains.
The effects of saving and spending patterns on holding time distribution of money are investigated based on the ideal gas-like models. We show the steady-state distribution obeys an exponential law when the saving factor is set uniformly, and a power law when the saving factor is set diversely. The power distribution c…
Automating the customer analytics process is crucial for companies that manage distinct customer bases. In such data-rich and dynamic environments, visualization plays a key role in understanding events of interest. These ideas have led to the popularity of analytics dashboards, yet academic research has paid scant att…
Optimizes retirement spending and asset allocation to maximize withdrawals and shortfall.
This paper solves the problem of optimal dynamic consumption, investment, and healthcare spending with isoelastic utility, when natural mortality grows exponentially to reflect Gompertz' law and investment opportunities are constant. Healthcare slows the natural growth of mortality, indirectly increasing utility from c…
Study optimal healthcare spending under Epstein-Zin preferences for longevity.
During the Great Recession, Democrats in the United States argued that government spending could be utilized to "grease the wheels" of the economy in order to create wealth and to increase employment; Republicans, on the other hand, contended that government spending is wasteful and discouraged investment, thereby incr…
The paper introduces neural INGARCH models for time series of counts.
Certain biological neurons demonstrate a remarkable capability to optimally compress the history of sensory inputs while being maximally informative about the future. In this work, we investigate if the same can be said of artificial neurons in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) trained with maximum likelihood. Empirical…
Estimates causal effect of managed care plans on NYC Medicaid spending.
In this paper, we work in the framework of the Merton problem but we impose a drawdown constraint on the consumption process. This means that consumption can never fall below a fixed proportion of the running maximum of past consumption. In terms of economic motivation, this constraint represents a type of habit format…
This work investigates training infinite mixtures with maximum likelihood for improved uncertainty quantification.
Develops new Markov processes with switching rates and past dependence.
Understanding consumption dynamics and its impact on the whole economy and welfare within the present economic crisis is not an easy task. Indeed the level of consumer demand for different goods varies with the prices, consumer incomes and demographic factors. Furthermore crisis may trigger different behaviors which re…
The distribution of health care payments to insurance plans has substantial consequences for social policy. Risk adjustment formulas predict spending in health insurance markets in order to provide fair benefits and health care coverage for all enrollees, regardless of their health status. Unfortunately, current risk a…
While all kinds of mixed data -from personal data, over panel and scientific data, to public and commercial data- are collected and stored, building probabilistic graphical models for these hybrid domains becomes more difficult. Users spend significant amounts of time in identifying the parametric form of the random va…
Enhances power of covariance matrix tests for high-dimensional data.
Tourism is one of the most important economic activities in the world: for many countries it represents the single largest product in their export basket. However, it is a product difficult to chart: "exporters" of tourism do not ship it abroad, but they welcome importers inside the country. Current research uses socia…
Study improves retail demand forecasting by integrating macroeconomic data.
This work analyzes the maximum-margin bias in quasi-homogeneous neural networks.
Estimates missing distributions using nearest neighbors with kernel methods.
We show that if Teichmüller geodesics spend enough time in the thick part of moduli space, they display CAT(-1)-type properties. In particular, they exponentially contract along strongly stable leaves. As an application we prove two closing lemmas.
We compute the asymptotic growth rate of the number N(C, R) of closed geodesics of length less than R in a connected component C of a stratum of quadratic differentials. We prove that for any 0 < θ< 1, the number of closed geodesics of length at most R that spend at least θ-fraction of time outside of a compact subset …
A major challenge in Bayesian Optimization is the boundary issue (Swersky, 2017) where an algorithm spends too many evaluations near the boundary of its search space. In this paper, we propose BOCK, Bayesian Optimization with Cylindrical Kernels, whose basic idea is to transform the ball geometry of the search space us…
Inpatient care is a large share of total health care spending, making analysis of inpatient utilization patterns an important part of understanding what drives health care spending growth. Common features of inpatient utilization measures include zero inflation, over-dispersion, and skewness, all of which complicate st…
I studied what role the US stock markets and money markets have possibly played in the Gross Private Domestic Investment (GPDI) of the United States from the year 1959 to the year 2001, Gross Private Domestic Investment refers to the total amount of investment spending by businesses and firms located within the borders…
For the first time ever, we analyze a unique public procurement database, which includes information about a number of bidders for a contract, a final price, an identification of a winner and an identification of a contracting authority for each of more than 40,000 public procurements in the Czech Republic between 2006…
Bitcoin mining costs remain stable despite increased activity.
We study the motion of an -dimensional closed spacelike hypersurface in a Lorentzian manifold in the direction of its past directed normal vector, where the speed equals a positive power of the mean curvature. We prove that for any , the flow exists for all time when the Ricci tensor of the ambient s…
We study the class of Azéma-Yor processes defined from a general semimartingale with a continuous running maximum process. We show that they arise as unique strong solutions of the Bachelier stochastic differential equation which we prove is equivalent to the drawdown equation. Solutions of the latter have the drawdown…
A new method predicts future paths using a Monte-Carlo approach.
We study the inference of a model of dynamic networks in which both communities and links keep memory of previous network states. By considering maximum likelihood inference from single snapshot observations of the network, we show that link persistence makes the inference of communities harder, decreasing the detectab…
Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) is an off-policy actor-critic deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithm based on maximum entropy reinforcement learning. By combining off-policy updates with an actor-critic formulation, SAC achieves state-of-the-art performance on a range of continuous-action benchmark tasks, outperforming pr…
We study investment strategy in different models of financial markets, where the investors cannot reach a perfect knowledge about available assets. The investor spends a certain effort to get information; this allows him to better choose the investment strategy, and puts a selective pressure upon assets. The best strat…
DE is a new exploration method that limits resource usage based on expected improvement and surprise.
We calculate the asymptotic average rate at which a generic geodesic on a finite area hyperbolic 2-orbifold returns to an embedded disc on the surface, as well as the average amount of time it spends in the disc during each visit. This includes the case where the center of the disc is a cone point.
The paper optimizes retirement spending considering habit formation and pension income.
Combines model-based and model-free RL for better financial market performance.
Paper studies optimal investing for retirees with risk constraints.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been promising in the field of image generation, however, they have been hard to train for language generation. GANs were originally designed to output differentiable values, so discrete language generation is challenging for them which causes high levels of instability in tr…
We solve a lifecycle model in which the consumer's chronological age does not move in lockstep with calendar time. Instead, biological age increases at a stochastic non-linear rate in time like a broken clock that might occasionally move backwards. In other words, biological age could actually decline. Our paper is ins…