A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New MC simulation methods use classifiers to estimate pdf ratios without explicit pdfs.
This work improves density estimation by characterizing pdf complexity using NL-spectrum.
In this paper, we address the fundamental problem of line spectral estimation in a Bayesian framework. We target model order and parameter estimation via variational inference in a probabilistic model in which the frequencies are continuous-valued, i.e., not restricted to a grid; and the coefficients are governed by a …
CDF2PDF improves SIC for high-dimensional data estimation.
DeepPDF uses neural networks to estimate complex data distributions efficiently.
The article derives a novel Gram-Charlier A (GCA) Series based Extended Rule-of-Thumb (ExROT) for bandwidth selection in Kernel Density Estimation (KDE). There are existing various bandwidth selection rules achieving minimization of the Asymptotic Mean Integrated Square Error (AMISE) between the estimated probability d…
New method calibrates photometric redshift PDFs more accurately.
In data science, it is often required to estimate dependencies between different data sources. These dependencies are typically calculated using Pearson's correlation, distance correlation, and/or mutual information. However, none of these measures satisfy all the Granger's axioms for an "ideal measure". One such ideal…
Density destructors simplify complex PDFs to maximize entropy, linking to information theory.
The Fisher information matrix (FIM) is a foundational concept in statistical signal processing. The FIM depends on the probability distribution, assumed to belong to a smooth parametric family. Traditional approaches to estimating the FIM require estimating the probability distribution function (PDF), or its parameters…
In this paper, a nonparametric maximum likelihood (ML) estimator for band-limited (BL) probability density functions (pdfs) is proposed. The BLML estimator is consistent and computationally efficient. To compute the BLML estimator, three approximate algorithms are presented: a binary quadratic programming (BQP) algorit…
Independent component analysis (ICA) is the most popular method for blind source separation (BSS) with a diverse set of applications, such as biomedical signal processing, video and image analysis, and communications. Maximum likelihood (ML), an optimal theoretical framework for ICA, requires knowledge of the true unde…
A new method uses histogram transform for better speaker identification.
Unified framework for PDF estimation using MDL-based binning and tensor factorization.
SINF models transform arbitrary PDFs to target PDFs using 1D slices.
In the Black-Scholes context we consider the probability distribution function (PDF) of financial returns implied by volatility smile and we study the relation between the decay of its tails and the fitting parameters of the smile. We show that, considering a scaling law derived from data, it is possible to get a new f…
The paper introduces flat-topped PDFs for better fitting machine learning models.
A new visualization tool MD plot discovers interesting structures in continuous features.
Most signal processing problems involve the challenging task of multidimensional probability density function (PDF) estimation. In this work, we propose a solution to this problem by using a family of Rotation-based Iterative Gaussianization (RBIG) transforms. The general framework consists of the sequential applicatio…
In this letter, we present a novel exponentially embedded families (EEF) based classification method, in which the probability density function (PDF) on raw data is estimated from the PDF on features. With the PDF construction, we show that class-specific features can be used in the proposed classification method, inst…
Graph-based LRE estimates likelihood-ratios collaboratively for nodes.
Bayesian method estimates QTEs from observational data.
Estimates class posterior probabilities without using scores from classifiers.
Develops a method to estimate extreme event statistics in high-dimensional systems with few samples.
This paper improves parameter estimation in cardiac models using Gaussian process-based MH sampling.
The article derives some novel independence measures and contrast functions for Blind Source Separation (BSS) application. For the order differentiable multivariate functions with equal hyper-volumes (region bounded by hyper-surfaces) and with a constraint of bounded support for , it proves that equality …
Many interesting machine learning problems are best posed by considering instances that are distributions, or sample sets drawn from distributions. Previous work devoted to machine learning tasks with distributional inputs has done so through pairwise kernel evaluations between pdfs (or sample sets). While such an appr…
Novel approach for estimating joint probability densities using tensor decompositions and dictionaries.
We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal model and of the Hull and White model. The lognormal model well describes the pd…
This research trains a supervised model to accurately detect PDF headings.
Develops a neural network approach to solve inverse stochastic problems from particle observations.
Autoencoder optimizes data embedding for accurate PDF reproduction.
We analyze the probability density function (PDF) of waiting times between financial loss exceedances. The empirical PDFs are fitted with the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process with a long power law memory kernel. The Hawkes process is the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account h…
Develops flexible ICA and IVA algorithms for medical image analysis.
We report the proof that the expression of extended Gibrat's law is unique and the probability distribution function (pdf) is also uniquely derived from the law of detailed balance and the extended Gibrat's law. In the proof, two approximations are employed that the pdf of growth rate is described as tent-shaped expone…
We report the proof that the extension of Gibrat's law in the middle scale region is unique and the probability distribution function (pdf) is also uniquely derived from the extended Gibrat's law and the law of detailed balance. In the proof, two approximations are employed. The pdf of growth rate is described as tent-…
We present a stochastic analysis of a data set consisiting of 10^6 quotes of the US Doller - German Mark exchange rate. Evidence is given that the price changes x(tau) upon different delay times tau can be described as a Markov process evolving in tau. Thus, the tau-dependence of the probability density function (pdf) …
Deep learning reduces noise in weak lensing mass maps using GANs.
Study fits BTC future returns from inverse options using logistic distribution.
Recent developments in system identification have brought attention to regularized kernel-based methods. This type of approach has been proven to compare favorably with classic parametric methods. However, current formulations are not robust with respect to outliers. In this paper, we introduce a novel method to robust…
Paper proposes using generalized lambda distributions for stochastic simulators.
DeepGDL models create realistic power grids from confidential data.
A step by step procedure to derive analytically the exact dynamical evolution equations of the probability density functions (PDF) of well known kinetic wealth exchange economic models is shown. This technique gives a dynamical insight into the evolution of the PDF, e.g., allowing the calculation of its relaxation time…
New framework quantifies uncertainty in data and models using RKHS.
Physics-informed neural networks approximate diffusion process pdfs efficiently.
Private density estimation in Wasserstein distance for geographic populations.
In this paper we explore the applicability of the unsupervised machine learning technique of Self Organizing Maps (SOM) to estimate galaxy photometric redshift probability density functions (PDFs). This technique takes a spectroscopic training set, and maps the photometric attributes, but not the redshifts, to a two di…
Many financial variables are found to exhibit multifractal nature, which is usually attributed to the influence of temporal correlations and fat-tailedness in the probability distribution (PDF). Based on the partition function approach of multifractal analysis, we show that there is a marked finite-size effect in the d…