New approach tackles decision-making under predictions that shape outcomes.
problem Challenges in learning optimal decision rules when predictions influence outcomes.
method Introduces performative omniprediction, a predictor that encodes optimal decision rules for multiple objectives.
result Efficient performative omnipredictors exist under a natural restriction of outcome performativity.
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
MLHO predicts COVID-19 adverse outcomes using past medical records.
problem Predicting adverse outcomes after COVID-19 infection.
method Iterative feature and algorithm selection, sequential representation mining.
result Mean AUC ROC of 0.91 for mortality prediction.
Achilles Tendon Rupture (ATR) is one of the typical soft tissue injuries. Rehabilitation after such a musculoskeletal injury remains a prolonged process with a very variable outcome. Accurately predicting rehabilitation outcome is crucial for treatment decision support. However, it is challenging to train an automatic …
Improving cancer treatment decisions requires considering causal effects, not just model accuracy.
problem Cancer outcome prediction models may cause harm when used for treatment decisions.
method Explains the importance of considering causal effects in model validation and provides guidelines.
result Building and validating models that are useful for decision making requires considering causal effects.
New method uses AI predictions as cheaper alternatives to expensive outcomes.
problem Using expensive outcomes for statistical inference.
method Recalibrated prediction-powered inference using machine learning techniques.
result Significant gains in effective sample size over existing PPI proposals.
Caus-Modens uses deep ensembles to better predict causal outcomes in hidden confounding scenarios.
problem Predicting causal outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Caus-Modens employs a modulated ensemble approach to improve prediction intervals for causal outcomes using sensitivity models.
result Caus-Modens provides tighter prediction intervals for causal outcomes compared to existing methods.
New method for valid prediction intervals in counterfactual outcomes with runtime confounding.
problem Valid prediction intervals for counterfactual outcomes under runtime confounding.
method Debiased machine learning framework grounded in semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Prediction intervals achieve desired coverage rates with faster convergence compared to standard methods.
This paper introduces a new method for uncertainty quantification in prediction models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in high-stakes applications like medicine and finance.
method Confidence sets for outcome excursions, focusing on identifying subsets of features where outcomes exceed a threshold.
result Theoretical guarantees for the probability that confidence sets contain the true feature subset, both asymptotically and for finite sample sizes.
Develops conformalized prediction intervals for bounded continuous outcomes.
problem Predicting continuous outcomes within bounded ranges, especially when models are misspecified.
method Conformal prediction intervals based on transformation regression models, accounting for heteroscedasticity and asymmetry.
result Valid finite-sample coverage confirmed in simulations and real data applications.
Study builds models to predict post-cardiac arrest outcomes using patient data.
problem Lack of accurate prognostication methods for patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest.
method Integrated electronic health records (EHR) and physiological time series (PTS) data to train machine learning classifiers.
result Combined EHR-PTS24 models outperformed models using either EHR or PTS24 alone in predicting survival and neurological outcomes.
This paper proposes a method for estimating the effect of a policy intervention on an outcome over time. We train recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on the history of control unit outcomes to learn a useful representation for predicting future outcomes. The learned representation of control units is then applied to the t…
Tennis is a popular sport worldwide, boasting millions of fans and numerous national and international tournaments. Like many sports, tennis has benefitted from the popularity of rigorous record-keeping of game and player information, as well as the growth of machine learning methods for use in sports analytics. Of par…
Proposes a test to ensure predictive algorithms predict intended outcomes better than unintended ones.
problem Unintended model behavior leading to prediction of unintended outcomes.
method Falsification framework using nonparametric hypothesis testing to compare prediction losses across outcomes.
result Establishes discriminant validity with respect to gender but not race in an admissions setting.
Estimates counterfactual outcomes linking observed and unobserved data.
problem Estimating expected counterfactual outcomes for individuals.
method Introduces retrospective counterfactual estimators and prediction intervals linking observed and unobserved outcomes.
result Retrospective counterfactual estimators and prediction intervals asymptotically satisfy valid coverage under standard causal assumptions.
New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.
problem Strategic agents manipulate features to improve outcomes, complicating decision-making models.
method Efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that minimize prediction risk, incentivize better outcomes, and estimate true model coefficients.
result Optimal decision rules can be learned through testing and observing agent responses, circumventing hardness results.
Accurately predicting the outcome of sporting events has been a goal for many groups who seek to maximize profit. What makes this challenging is that the outcome of an event can be influenced by many factors that dynamically change across time. Oddsmakers attempt to estimate these factors by using both algorithmic and …
This paper significantly improves on, and finishes to validate, an approach proposed in previous research in which safety outcomes were predicted from attributes with machine learning. Like in the original study, we use Natural Language Processing (NLP) to extract fundamental attributes from raw incident reports and ma…
New framework for predicting decisions that influence their own outcomes.
problem Predictions that affect the outcomes they predict, leading to undesirable distribution shift.
method Risk minimization framework combining statistics, game theory, and causality.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for retraining to converge to a performatively stable point of minimal loss.
Two new estimators reduce costs and improve accuracy for EHR outcome prediction.
problem Sparse estimate distributions, high computational cost, and high sampling variance in EHR outcome prediction.
method Proposed SCOPE and REACH estimators that leverage next-token probability distributions.
result SCOPE and REACH match Monte Carlo accuracy with token reductions of 2.5-3.4 times and variance guarantees.
New method predicts outcomes even when some factors are not used in models.
problem Predicting outcomes under runtime confounding where some factors are unavailable.
method Doubly-robust procedure for counterfactual predictions.
result Method often outperforms competing approaches in runtime confounding.
Improved AutoDML estimator for causal inference using outcome-adapted shared covariate representation.
problem Efficiency in estimating treatment or policy effects in causal inference.
method Outcome-adapted AutoDML estimator that uses a shared covariate representation that is predictive of the outcome but not the Riesz representer.
result Outcome-adapted AutoDML estimator is asymptotically more efficient than baseline AutoDML.
Regularizes predictions to encourage beneficial user actions.
problem Learning models affect user actions, but provide no guarantees.
method Introduces look-ahead regularization to anticipate and encourage beneficial actions.
result Effective in promoting beneficial user actions in real and synthetic data.
The increasingly fast development cycle for online course contents, along with the diverse student demographics in each online classroom, make real-time student outcomes prediction an interesting topic for both industrial research and practical needs. In this paper, we tackle the problem of real-time student performanc…
A successful grasp requires careful balancing of the contact forces. Deducing whether a particular grasp will be successful from indirect measurements, such as vision, is therefore quite challenging, and direct sensing of contacts through touch sensing provides an appealing avenue toward more successful and consistent …
Deep learning model predicts severe COVID-19 outcomes.
problem Predicting severe COVID-19 outcomes in ED patients.
method Deep feature fusion model using EHR data and CXR images.
result CO-RISK score achieved AUC of 0.95 and 0.92 for 24 and 72 hours predictions, superior to human performance.
New method robust to random distributional shifts in prediction.
problem Random distributional shifts in real-world settings.
method Hybrid approach combining long-term and proxy outcomes.
result Hybrid approach yields lower mean-squared error than current methods.
Study assesses weakly-supervised methods for rare outcomes in medical records.
problem Identifying patients with specific medical conditions using electronic health records.
method Compared three methods (PheNorm, MAP, and sureLDA) in simulations with varying outcomes and silver labels.
result No single method consistently outperformed others, but sureLDA often did well.
Adaptive prediction timing improves healthcare outcomes by predicting patient events at the right frequency.
problem Inconsistent prediction granularity in healthcare models.
method Introduces a novel approach using Bayesian recurrent models and a new aggregation method to adapt prediction frequency based on uncertainty.
result Adaptive prediction timing leads to improved predictive performance, especially in the critical first 12 hours of patient stay.
A new method for safer statistical inference after predictions.
problem Statistical inference with pseudo-outcomes from machine learning predictions.
method Prediction De-Correlated Inference (PDC) framework.
result PDC consistently outperforms supervised methods and can adapt to any model.
Fairness measures fail in predictive settings that intentionally shift outcomes.
problem Fairness measures fail in performative prediction settings.
method Formalized concept shift and counterfactual outcomes.
result Predictors that are fair during training become unfair during deployment.
We show social events can be accurately predicted, but often undesirably.
problem The predictability of social events and its implications.
method Recent ideas from performative prediction and outcome indistinguishability.
result Social events can be efficiently predicted accurately, but often undesirably.
The Prescriptive Canvas improves business outcomes by directly prescribing actions based on predictions.
problem Sub-optimal performance in business projects due to a two-step approach of prediction and decision-making.
method The Prescriptive Canvas methodology for framing and communicating actions directly based on predictions.
result Improves framing and communication across stakeholders for successful business impact.
Causal ML predicts treatment outcomes, aiding personalized medicine.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects for personalized medicine.
method Flexible, data-driven methods using causal inference with clinical trial and real-world data.
result Causal ML allows for estimating individualized treatment effects.
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
Predictive process monitoring is a family of techniques to analyze events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict the future state or the final outcome of running process instances. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a process instance, the likelihood …
New method for valid prediction intervals with coarsened data.
problem Handling missing data and censored outcomes in training samples.
method Multiply robust conformal risk control with semiparametric theory.
result Stronger coverage properties under covariate shift.
The paper reviews and extends calibration concepts for classification and regression.
problem Formalizing compatibility between probabilistic predictions and outcomes.
method Review and extension of existing calibration concepts, introduction of new concepts.
result Hierarchical relations between calibration concepts for various data types.
Paper improves feature selection for predicting outcomes from observational data.
problem Feature selection for post-intervention outcome prediction from pre-intervention variables in healthcare settings.
method Extends Markov boundary concept to treatment-outcome pairs, uses observational and experimental data.
result Combining observational and experimental data improves feature selection and effect estimation.
Machine learning improves kidney transplant outcomes prediction.
problem Improving prediction of kidney transplant success.
method Random forest machine learning model trained on kidney donor risk index data.
result Random forest predicted 2,148 more successful transplants than the risk index.
Machine learning reduces variance in online experiment results.
problem Reducing variance in randomized controlled trials.
method Machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect estimator (MLRATE).
result MLRATE reduces estimator variance by over 70% in A/A tests.
COPP provides reliable intervals for outcomes under a new policy in contextual bandits.
problem Lack of reliable predictive intervals for outcomes under a new policy in contextual bandits.
method Conformal prediction applied to contextual bandits.
result COPP provides finite-sample guarantees without additional assumptions.
Machine learning models predict brain age with systematic bias, corrected in this study.
problem Systematic bias in machine learning regression models for brain age prediction.
method General constrained optimization approach to correct bias.
result Our method effectively eliminates the bias from brain age predictions.
CausalLongPFN predicts counterfactual outcomes from time-series data.
problem Predicting future outcomes under varying treatments in time-series data with confounding and heterogeneity.
method Prior-fitted network pretrained on synthetic episodes of temporal structural causal models.
result CausalLongPFN outperforms domain-trained models on factual and counterfactual prediction tasks.
Enhances conformal prediction for better uncertainty estimates in armed conflict fatalities.
problem Lack of individual-level uncertainty estimates in existing forecasting models.
method Introduces bin-conditional conformal prediction (BCCP) to improve coverage rates across subsets of the outcome variable.
result Demonstrates improved local coverage and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across various ranges of fatalities.
G-Net uses deep learning for complex counterfactual outcome prediction.
problem Estimating counterfactual outcomes under dynamic treatment strategies.
method G-Net is a sequential deep learning framework for G-computation.
result G-Net can handle complex temporal data and provide accurate treatment effects.
Random forest models predict CLABSI risk in hospital admissions, with static models performing similarly to dynamic ones.
problem Predicting CLABSI risk in hospital admissions using EHR data with competing risks.
method Comparison of static and dynamic random forest models for binary, multinomial, survival, and competing risks outcomes.
result Static and dynamic random forest models perform similarly in predicting CLABSI risk, with multinomial models having the lowest computation times.