A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
End-to-end framework optimizes constrained trajectories using data-driven methods.
problem Optimizing trajectories under constraints with limited dynamics knowledge.
method Data-driven approach decomposes trajectories into function basis, uses maximum a posteriori for optimization, and incorporates linear constraints.
result Commanding results in aeronautics and sailing route optimization.
This technical report constructs a theoretical framework to relate standard Taylor approximation based optimisation methods with Natural Gradient (NG), a method which is Fisher efficient with probabilistic models. Such a framework will be shown to also provide mathematical justification to combine higher order methods …
Real world experiments are expensive, and thus it is important to reach a target in minimum number of experiments. Experimental processes often involve control variables that changes over time. Such problems can be formulated as a functional optimisation problem. We develop a novel Bayesian optimisation framework for s…
A novel optimisation framework through quadratic nonlinear projection is introduced for credit portfolio when the portfolio risk is measured by Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). The whole optimisation procedure to search toward the optimal portfolio state is conducted by a series of single-step optimisations under the …
Bayesian optimisation is a powerful tool to solve expensive black-box problems, but fails when the stationary assumption made on the objective function is strongly violated, which is the case in particular for ill-conditioned or discontinuous objectives. We tackle this problem by proposing a new Bayesian optimisation f…
Performance analysis, from the external point of view of a client who would only have access to returns and holdings of a fund, evolved towards exact attribution made in the context of portfolio optimisation, which is the internal point of view of a manager controlling all the parameters of this optimisation. Attributi…
This thesis investigates Merton's portfolio problem under two different rough Heston models, which have a non-Markovian structure. The motivation behind this choice of problem is due to the recent discovery and success of rough volatility processes. The optimisation problem is solved from two different approaches: firs…
We elaborate on using importance sampling for causal reasoning, in particular for counterfactual inference. We show how this can be implemented natively in probabilistic programming. By considering the structure of the counterfactual query, one can significantly optimise the inference process. We also consider design c…
Mixture modelling using elliptical distributions promises enhanced robustness, flexibility and stability over the widely employed Gaussian mixture model (GMM). However, existing studies based on the elliptical mixture model (EMM) are restricted to several specific types of elliptical probability density functions, whic…
This paper introduces the variational Rényi bound (VR) that extends traditional variational inference to Rényi's alpha-divergences. This new family of variational methods unifies a number of existing approaches, and enables a smooth interpolation from the evidence lower-bound to the log (marginal) likelihood that is co…
Deep Neural Network (DNN) acoustic models often use discriminative sequence training that optimises an objective function that better approximates the word error rate (WER) than frame-based training. Sequence training is normally implemented using Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) or Hessian Free (HF) training. This pa…
Unified Bayesian Optimisation for mixed variables improves performance.
problem Efficient optimisation of problems with both categorical and continuous variables.
method Derive value proposals from the Expected Improvement criterion to optimise both categorical and continuous variables under a single acquisition metric.
result Unified approach significantly outperforms existing methods across mixed-variable tasks.
A recent novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes handles heterogeneous outputs assuming that each output has its own likelihood function. It uses a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model all likelihoods' parameters as latent functions drawn from a Gaussian process with a linear model of coregi…
Random forests are among the most popular classification and regression methods used in industrial applications. To be effective, the parameters of random forests must be carefully tuned. This is usually done by choosing values that minimize the prediction error on a held out dataset. We argue that error reduction is o…