A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which \textit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is straightforward to show that they have the same O(1/N) convergen…
We describe a novel algorithm for noisy global optimisation and continuum-armed bandits, with good convergence properties over any continuous reward function having finitely many polynomial maxima. Over such functions, our algorithm achieves square-root regret in bandits, and inverse-square-root error in optimisation, …
Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been a successful approach to optimise functions which are expensive to evaluate and whose observations are noisy. Classical BO algorithms, however, do not account for errors about the location where observations are taken, which is a common issue in problems with physical components. In …
Random forests are among the most popular classification and regression methods used in industrial applications. To be effective, the parameters of random forests must be carefully tuned. This is usually done by choosing values that minimize the prediction error on a held out dataset. We argue that error reduction is o…
Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard. While reasonable practical solutions have been advanced, they can often fail to …
Despite the improved accuracy of deep neural networks, the discovery of adversarial examples has raised serious safety concerns. In this paper, we study two variants of pointwise robustness, the maximum safe radius problem, which for a given input sample computes the minimum distance to an adversarial example, and the …
Bayesian optimisation (BO) is a well-known efficient algorithm for finding the global optimum of expensive, black-box functions. The current practical BO algorithms have regret bounds ranging from O(NlogN) to O(e−N), where N is the number of evaluations. This paper exp…
Deep Neural Network (DNN) acoustic models often use discriminative sequence training that optimises an objective function that better approximates the word error rate (WER) than frame-based training. Sequence training is normally implemented using Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) or Hessian Free (HF) training. This pa…
Techniques known as Nonlinear Set Membership prediction, Kinky Inference or Lipschitz Interpolation are fast and numerically robust approaches to nonparametric machine learning that have been proposed to be utilised in the context of system identification and learning-based control. They utilise presupposed Lipschitz p…
We propose a new framework to improve the calibration of neural networks.
problem Improving the accuracy of model confidence predictions.
method Introducing a differentiable surrogate for expected calibration error (DECE) and a meta-learning framework to optimise model hyper-parameters for validation set calibration.
result Achieved competitive performance with existing calibration approaches.
Recent DNN pruning algorithms have succeeded in reducing the number of parameters in fully connected layers, often with little or no drop in classification accuracy. However, most of the existing pruning schemes either have to be applied during training or require a costly retraining procedure after pruning to regain c…
This paper introduces the variational Rényi bound (VR) that extends traditional variational inference to Rényi's alpha-divergences. This new family of variational methods unifies a number of existing approaches, and enables a smooth interpolation from the evidence lower-bound to the log (marginal) likelihood that is co…
This paper presents a new optimisation approach to train Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with discriminative sequence criteria. At each iteration, the method combines information from the Natural Gradient (NG) direction with local curvature information of the error surface that enables better paths on the parameter manifol…
Investigates portfolio optimization with and without gearing constraints.
problem Improving portfolio weights for better alignment with expected returns.
method Extends the alpha-weight angle bound to include gearing constraints and uses theoretical arguments and simulations.
result Equally weighted portfolios are not preferable to mean-variance portfolios even with poor forecast ability and a badly conditioned covariance matrix.
Pure exploration (aka active testing) is the fundamental task of sequentially gathering information to answer a query about a stochastic environment. Good algorithms make few mistakes and take few samples. Lower bounds (for multi-armed bandit models with arms in an exponential family) reveal that the sample complexity …
In this paper, several modifications are introduced to the functional approximation method iterLap to reduce the approximation error, including stopping rule adjustment, proposal of new residual function, starting point selection for numerical optimisation, scaling of Hessian matrix. Illustrative examples are also prov…
We propose an algorithm for the adaptation of the learning rate for stochastic gradient descent (SGD) that avoids the need for validation set use. The idea for the adaptiveness comes from the technique of extrapolation: to get an estimate for the error against the gradient flow which underlies SGD, we compare the resul…