A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New CGMD model predicts non-equilibrium processes better than existing methods.
Develops a method for non-equilibrium importance sampling to estimate expectations and constants.
Researchers use Gaussian processes to approximate Lagrange multipliers for Maximum-Entropy distributions.
We analyze the statistics of daily price change of stock market in the framework of a statistical physics model for the collective fluctuation of stock portfolio. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins, and the Hamiltonian of the system is expressed by spin-spin…
A new method uses deep learning to predict rare events in complex systems.
Alternative finance models from physics for non-equilibrium systems.
A new method relaxes molecules without needing non-equilibrium data.
Neural network models colloidal particle dynamics in non-equilibrium systems.
New method samples from multi-modal distributions on Riemannian manifolds without training.
We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is generally unknown and hard to compute, which prevents the application of established eq…
Thermodynamic integration (TI) for computing marginal likelihoods is based on an inverse annealing path from the prior to the posterior distribution. In many cases, the resulting estimator suffers from high variability, which particularly stems from the prior regime. When comparing complex models with differences in a …
We develop a formalism to study linearized perturbations around the equilibria of a pure exchange economy. With the use of mean field theory techniques, we derive equations for the flow of products in an economy driven by heterogeneous preferences and probabilistic interaction between agents. We are able to show that i…
The paper provides a geometric framework for understanding non-equilibrium thermodynamics.
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
Investigates spontaneous symmetry breaking in non-equilibrium systems.
Framework preserves emergent physics in non-equilibrium systems from particle trajectories.
NEO combines orbits to sample and estimate complex distributions.
Improved sampling for gauge theory with SNFs.
Paper connects RL and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics for entropy-regularized RL.
In this paper I give a brief introduction to a family of simple but non-trivial models designed to increase our understanding of collective processes in markets, the so-called Minority Games, and their non-equilibrium statistical mathematical analysis. Since the most commonly studied members of this family define disor…
Investigates fluid flow perturbations using geometric theory.
New method reconstructs non-equilibrium stochastic systems from data.
We propose a novel method to directly learn a stochastic transition operator whose repeated application provides generated samples. Traditional undirected graphical models approach this problem indirectly by learning a Markov chain model whose stationary distribution obeys detailed balance with respect to a parameteriz…
The origin of the long-range memory in the non-equilibrium systems is still an open problem as the phenomenon can be reproduced using models based on Markov processes. In these cases a notion of spurious memory is introduced. A good example of Markov processes with spurious memory is stochastic process driven by a non-…
We consider a simple stochastic model of a urban rental housing market, in which the interaction of tenants and landlords induces rent fluctuations. We simulate the model numerically and measure the equilibrium rent distribution, which is found to be close to a lognormal law. We also study the influence of the density …
This paper tackles traffic volume estimation challenges with a deep learning method.
MEP-Net uses MEP to generate solutions from limited data.
General equilibrium equations in economics play the same role with many-body Newtonian equations in physics. Accordingly, each solution of the general equilibrium equations can be regarded as a possible microstate of the economic system. Since Arrow's Impossibility Theorem and Rawls' principle of social fairness will p…
Rate GENERIC extends thermodynamics principles to non-equilibrium systems.
Probability distributions of money, income, and energy consumption per capita are studied for ensembles of economic agents. The principle of entropy maximization for partitioning of a limited resource gives exponential distributions for the investigated variables. A non-equilibrium difference of money temperatures betw…
A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and…
Financial markets can be seen as complex systems in non-equilibrium steady state, one of whose most important properties is the distribution of price fluctuations. Recently, there have been assertions that this distribution is qualitatively different in emerging markets as compared to developed markets. Here we analyse…
Time and Sales of corn futures traded electronically on the CME Group Globex are studied. Theories of continuous prices turn upside down reality of intra-day trading. Prices and their increments are discrete and obey lattice probability distributions. A function for systematic evolution of futures trading volume is pro…
Tractable model explains market dynamics using Langevin and SUSY QM.
During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates for sovereign debt increased dramatically. High interest rates imply that defaul…
Geometric approach to quantum thermodynamics models state spaces and processes.
An interacting Black-Scholes model for option pricing, where the usual constant interest rate r is replaced by a stochastic time dependent rate r(t) of the form r(t)=r+f(t) dW/dt, accounting for market imperfections and prices non-alignment, was developed in [1]. The white noise amplitude f(t), called arbitrage bubble,…
In this work a relation between a measure of short-term arbitrage in the market and the excess growth of portfolios as a notion of long-term arbitrage is established. The former originates from "Geometric Arbitrage Theory" and the latter from "Stochastic Portfolio Theory". Both aim to describe non-equilibrium effects i…
Employing data on the assessed value of land in 1983 -- 2005 Japan, we investigate the dynamical behavior in the high scale region of non-equilibrium systems. From the detailed quasi-balance and Gibrat's law, we derive a relation between the change of Pareto index and a symmetry in the detailed quasi-balance. The relat…
We briefly review data analysis of the Island order book, part of NASDAQ, which suggests a framework to which all limit order markets should comply. Using a simple exclusion particle model, we argue that short-time price over-diffusion in limit order markets is due to the non-equilibrium of order placement, cancellatio…
The sampling of probability distributions specified up to a normalization constant is an important problem in both machine learning and statistical mechanics. While classical stochastic sampling methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Langevin Dynamics (LD) can suffer from slow mixing times there is a growin…
We introduce a stochastic heterogeneous interacting-agent model for the short-time non-equilibrium evolution of excess demand and price in a stylized asset market. We consider a combination of social interaction within peer groups and individually heterogeneous fundamentalist trading decisions which take into account t…
Unified framework for training diffusion and flow models to sample from target distributions.
Non-equilibrium phenomena occur not only in physical world, but also in finance. In this work, stochastic relaxational dynamics (together with path integrals) is applied to option pricing theory. A recently proposed model (by Ilinski et al.) considers fluctuations around this equilibrium state by introducing a relaxati…
This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. In particular, the …
This work models financial market returns with asymmetric Tsallis distributions, improving fit over symmetric q-Gaussians.
We propose a simple quantitative model of Schumpeterian economic dynamics. New goods and services are endogenously produced through combinations of existing goods. As soon as new goods enter the market they may compete against already existing goods, in other words new products can have destructive effects on existing …
Framework infers Langevin dynamics from stochastic observations of latent systems.