This study enhances sales forecasts by integrating market indicators into forecasting models.
problem Traditional forecasting models rely solely on historical demand data.
method Automated integration of macroeconomic time series data (GDP growth) into forecasting models using feature selection methods.
result Feature selection methods, especially Forward Feature Selection, significantly improve forecasting accuracy.
NeuralProphet improves forecast accuracy by 55-92% for short-term forecasts.
problem Challenges in explainable, scalable forecasting for business decisions.
method Hybrid framework combining classical methods and deep learning, with auto-regression and covariate modules.
result NeuralProphet outperforms Prophet on real-world datasets and short-term forecasts.
When will a server fail catastrophically in an industrial datacenter? Is it possible to forecast these failures so preventive actions can be taken to increase the reliability of a datacenter? To answer these questions, we have studied what are probably the largest, publicly available datacenter traces, containing more …
Retail company uses Prophet algorithm for accurate sales forecasting.
problem Accurate sales forecasting in the retail industry.
method Facebook's Prophet algorithm and backtesting strategy.
result Framework demonstrates real-world use case capabilities.
Optimal learning for parametric prophet inequalities with exponential-type distributions
problem Learning in prophet inequalities with unknown parameters
method Confidence-based dynamic-programming policy
result Achieves optimal asymptotic competitive ratio using online observations
ARIMA model outperforms advanced forecasting models in predicting Walmart sales.
problem Forecasting volatile retail sales trends with unknown factors.
method Benchmarked traditional ARIMA model against advanced models like Prophet and LightGBM on historical Walmart sales data.
result ARIMA model outperforms LightGBM and achieves computational efficiency.
Study noisy rewards in online decision-making with unknown distributions.
problem Learning optimal decisions in online settings with noisy and unknown reward distributions.
method Proposes algorithms integrating learning and decision-making via LCB thresholding.
result Achieves competitive ratios of 1 - 1/e and 1/2 in various settings.
Improved electrical load forecasting model using Fourier-enhanced RNN.
problem Electrical load time series downscaling with high accuracy and low error.
method Combines recurrent neural network with Fourier seasonal embeddings and self-attention.
result Significantly reduces RMSE across different time horizons compared to existing methods.
Prophet predicts device qualities for FL to reduce training latency.
problem Bad candidate-selection leads to large training and reporting latency in FL.
method Each device predicts its own training and reporting phases using LSTM. The algorithm is implemented with DRL.
result The proposed approach outperforms reactive algorithms in real-world experiments.
Interpretable additive models outperform complex DL and hybrid pipelines for air quality forecasting.
problem Accurate forecasting of urban air pollution for public health and policy guidance.
method Investigated lightweight additive models (FBP, NP) vs. deep learning and hybrid pipelines on Beijing PM2.5 and PM10 data.
result Facebook Prophet consistently outperformed NeuralProphet and traditional models, achieving high R2 values. Paper presents forecasting models for platelet demand.
problem Managing platelet demand and supply is challenging due to variability and short shelf life.
method Utilized ARIMA, Prophet, lasso regression, and LSTM networks on a clinical dataset.
result Multivariate approaches generally have higher accuracy, but simpler ARIMA can suffice with sufficient data.
Proposes a method for forecasting time series with multiple seasonality.
problem Forecasting time series with both short-term and long-term seasonality is challenging.
method Two-stage method: first generalizes ARMA model for multiple seasonality, second selects lag order.
result Method outperforms `Facebook Prophet` model in predictive performance.
New algorithms improve time series prediction with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification for time series prediction.
method Combines conformal prediction and control theory for online, adaptive forecasting.
result Improves coverage over ensemble forecasters in real-world applications.
The paper compares advanced deep learning models for Indian stock price forecasting.
problem Complexity of stock price forecasting due to numerous influencing factors.
method Utilizes historical data from national banks in India, combines deep learning models and sentiment analysis.
result Achieved higher accuracy in stock price forecasting compared to traditional methods.
Proposes a new TS algorithm for non-stationary bandits using KS tests.
problem Non-stationary multi-armed bandit problems.
method Active detection of change points using KS tests and adaptive Thompson Sampling.
result Sub-linear regret demonstrated for the two-armed bandit case.
Study forecasts COVID-19 cases in Iran using deep learning.
problem Predicting the spread of COVID-19 in Iran.
method Deep learning models (Prophet, LSTM, AR, ARIMA) for forecasting.
result Deep learning models outperform time series forecasting.
LSTM Networks accurately forecast COVID-19 cases in Turkey with lower error than other methods.
problem Forecasting total COVID-19 cases in Turkey using machine learning.
method Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks for forecasting.
result LSTM Networks outperform other methods in forecasting accuracy.
Delivering useful hydrological forecasts is critical for urban and agricultural water management, hydropower generation, flood protection and management, drought mitigation and alleviation, and river basin planning and management, among others. In this work, we present and appraise a new simple and flexible methodology…
Graphs of neural networks are represented to preserve symmetry, improving performance across various tasks.
problem Lack of equivariance in neural network representations of other neural networks.
method Represent neural networks as computational graphs and use graph neural networks to preserve permutation symmetry.
result Single model encodes diverse neural architectures, outperforming state-of-the-art methods.
Convolutional Neural Processes improve data efficiency in neural processes.
problem Improving data efficiency in neural processes for small datasets.
method Convolutional Neural Processes (ConvNPs) improve data efficiency by leveraging translation equivariance and convolutional neural networks.
result ConvNPs enhance the performance of neural processes in small-data problems.
Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) has been proposed as a continuous approximation to the ResNet architecture. Some commonly used regularization mechanisms in discrete neural networks (e.g. dropout, Gaussian noise) are missing in current Neural ODE networks. In this paper, we propose a new continuous ne…
Investigates how neural network graph structure impacts predictive performance.
problem Lack of understanding between neural network graph structure and predictive performance.
method Developed relational graph representation to analyze neural networks, identifying a 'sweet spot' for improved performance.
result Identified a 'sweet spot' in relational graph structure that significantly improves neural network predictive performance.
Novel framework explains generalization in deep neural networks.
problem Understanding and improving generalization in deep neural networks.
method Topological Quantum Neural Networks as the semi-classical limit of Deep Neural Networks.
result Demonstrates that the perceptron, viewed as the semi-classical limit, achieves similar results to standard neural networks without training.
Neural networks can approximate functions uniformly across various measures.
problem Universal approximation of functions across different probability measures.
method Proving neural networks are dense in Orlicz spaces, extending classical theorems.
result Neural networks uniformly approximate functions for weakly compact families of measures.
Investigates neural codes and their embeddings, proving conjectures and introducing new code types.
problem Analyzing neural codes and their embedding dimensions.
method Combinatorial, topological, and algebraic analysis; proving conjectures; introducing new neural code types.
result Proves conjectures about neural codes and their embeddings, introduces new code types.
Neural dynamical systems are dynamical systems that are described at least in part by neural networks. The class of continuous-time neural dynamical systems must, however, be numerically integrated for simulation and learning. Here, we present a compact neural circuit for two common numerical integrators: the explicit …
Quadratic models explain neural network behavior during training.
problem Understanding neural network dynamics during training with large learning rates.
method Developed and tested Neural Quadratic Models.
result Neural Quadratic Models exhibit the 'catapult phase' similar to neural networks.
Graph Metanetworks process diverse neural architectures efficiently.
problem Processing diverse neural architectures efficiently.
method Builds metanetworks using graph neural networks to process graphs representing input neural networks.
result Proves GMNs are expressive and equivariant to parameter permutation symmetries.
Optimal rates for shallow ReLU networks in nonparametric regression.
problem Approximating smooth and non-smooth functions with shallow ReLU networks.
method Analysis of shallow ReLUk neural networks, using variation norms and deep learning theory. result Optimal approximation rates for shallow ReLU networks in nonparametric regression.
New metric compares noisy neural trajectories using optimal transport.
problem Existing metrics fail to capture differences in noisy, dynamic neural responses.
method Proposed an optimal transport distance metric for Gaussian processes.
result Metric effectively compares neural dynamics in different systems.
The neural tangent kernel equivalence theorem fails in practice.
problem Does the neural tangent kernel (NTK) equivalence theorem hold in practical neural network training?
method Rigorously derived NTK and conducted numerical experiments to evaluate the equivalence theorem.
result Adding a layer to a neural network and the corresponding updated NTK do not yield matching changes in predictor error.
Equivariant neural networks use symmetry to interpret complex data.
problem Interpreting and understanding the behavior of equivariant neural networks.
method Decompose layers into simple representations and analyze nonlinear activation functions.
result Equivariant neural networks can be interpreted using a filtration generalizing Fourier series.
Two new criteria help understand the advantage of deep neural networks.
problem Understanding the advantage of deepening neural networks.
method Proposed two new criteria to evaluate the expressivity of functions computable by deep neural networks.
result Increasing layers is more effective than increasing units in improving the expressivity of deep neural networks.
Use simplified layerwise linear models to understand neural dynamics.
problem Complex neural network dynamics are hard to grasp.
method Apply simplified layerwise linear models to explain neural phenomena.
result Simplified models explain neural collapse, emergence, etc.
Analysis of over-parameterized neural networks has drawn significant attention in recentyears. It was shown that such systems behave like convex systems under various restrictedsettings, such as for two-level neural networks, and when learning is only restricted locally inthe so-called neural tangent kernel space aroun…
The paper proves consistency of neural networks with regularization.
problem Overfitting in neural networks with large scale data.
method Theoretical framework of neural networks with regularization, sieves method, and minimal neural networks theory.
result The estimated neural network converges to the true underlying function as sample size increases.
This study shows why training Neural ODEs is hard and proposes a new method.
problem Training Neural ODEs is challenging, especially in practice.
method Proposed a new stabilization method and provided an analytical convergence analysis.
result Insights and techniques for researchers starting work on Neural ODEs.
We introduce Graph Neural Processes (GNP), inspired by the recent work in conditional and latent neural processes. A Graph Neural Process is defined as a Conditional Neural Process that operates on arbitrary graph data. It takes features of sparsely observed context points as input, and outputs a distribution over targ…
Paper benchmarks quantum neural networks against classical ones for binary classification tasks.
problem Comparing quantum neural networks with classical ones for binary classification.
method Evaluated with two toy examples, focusing on model complexity and training data size.
result EQNN and QNN outperform ENN and DNN for smaller parameter sets and training data samples.
Affine spiking neural networks learn efficiently and generalize well.
problem Learning with spiking neural networks, especially with positive weights.
method Affine encoders and decoders, continuous parameter dependence, gradient-based training.
result Affine spiking neural networks can approximate shallow ReLU networks and generalize well.
Explains equivariant neural networks for machine learning.
problem Understanding equivariance in neural networks.
method Simple mathematical treatment of neural network concepts.
result Clarifies the mathematical basis of equivariant neural networks.
Proposes deep graph persistence to address neural persistence issues in deep learning.
problem Variance of weights and lack of spatial structure in deep neural networks impact neural persistence.
method Extends neural persistence to the whole network, considering interactions between layers.
result Deep graph persistence alleviates variance-related issues and captures persistent paths through the network.
Study of infinitely deep but narrow neural networks using NTK theory.
problem Analyzing the role of depth in deep learning with overparameterized networks.
method Infinite-depth limit analysis of MLP and CNN using Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory.
result Established trainability guarantee for infinitely deep but narrow neural networks.
Q-learning with neural network function approximation (neural Q-learning for short) is among the most prevalent deep reinforcement learning algorithms. Despite its empirical success, the non-asymptotic convergence rate of neural Q-learning remains virtually unknown. In this paper, we present a finite-time analysis of a…
Paper introduces a noise-robust classification method using hypergraph neural networks.
problem Noisy label learning problem in image datasets.
method PCA for dimensionality reduction, then applies graph-based semi-supervised learning methods including hypergraph neural network.
result Our proposed hypergraph neural network achieves the best performance when noise level increases.
Paper introduces new neural network models and theories.
problem Understanding neural networks beyond over-parameterized regime.
method Develops two exact models and a novel representor theory.
result Provides insights into neural network training and kernel evolution.
Researchers analyze neural process architectures and their representational capacities.
problem Understanding what functions can be represented by different neural process architectures.
method Analyzing four types of neural process architectures: CNPs, ANPs, TNPs, and their latent variants.
result Prove these architectures form a strict hierarchy and characterize their representational capabilities.
New neural stack and Turing Machine architectures prove stability and computational power.
problem Designing stable neural network architectures for Turing Machine simulation.
method Introducing neural stack and Turing Machine architectures, proving stability and computational equivalence.
result Differentiable nnTM with bounded neurons can simulate Turing Machine in real-time and is equivalent to UTM.