Bayesian method decomposes ITR value into direct and indirect effects.
problem Assessing how clinical benefit of an ITR is generated.
method Causal mediation framework using nested potential outcomes and Bayesian causal mediation forests.
result Identification and estimation of natural direct and indirect effects.
Gradient-guided nested sampling improves posterior inference efficiency.
problem Efficiently sampling from complex posterior distributions.
method Gradient-guided nested sampling combining differentiable programming, Hamiltonian slice sampling, clustering, mode separation, dynamic nested sampling, and parallelization.
result Significantly faster mode discovery and more accurate partition function estimates.
Unified SGD method improves convergence for nested optimization problems.
problem Stochastic nested optimization problems.
method ALTERNATE dESCEN (ALSET) method leveraging hidden smoothness.
result Requires O(ε−2) samples to achieve an ε-stationary point. PO-Flow models potential and counterfactual outcomes for personalized treatment decisions.
problem Predicting individualized treatment effects from observational data.
method Continuous normalizing flow (CNF) framework for causal inference.
result Unified approach to potential outcome prediction, treatment effect estimation, and counterfactual prediction.
Ex ante forecast outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. Reapplying measurements of uncertainty about the estimation errors of the estimation errors of an estimation leads to branching counterfactuals. Such recursions of epistemic uncertainty …
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
The scientific method relies on the iterated processes of inference and inquiry. The inference phase consists of selecting the most probable models based on the available data; whereas the inquiry phase consists of using what is known about the models to select the most relevant experiment. Optimizing inquiry involves …
Unified approach for estimating quantiles of potential outcomes using inverse estimating equations.
problem Estimating quantiles of potential outcomes for causal inference.
method Inverse estimating equations and moment function.
result Unified approach to estimate mean and quantiles of potential outcomes.
Paper tackles robust model training with a new stochastic algorithm.
problem Training robust models against data distribution shift.
method Derives a novel dual formulation and proposes a nested stochastic gradient descent algorithm.
result Establishes polynomial iteration and sample complexities for large-scale DRO problems.
Models predict soccer match outcomes with similar accuracy.
problem Predicting soccer match outcomes (win, draw, loss).
method Compared Bradley-Terry extensions and hierarchical Poisson log-linear model. Parameters estimated using log-likelihood or integrated nested Laplace approximations. Predictive performance assessed using temporal validation.
result Bradley-Terry extensions and hierarchical Poisson log-linear model perform similarly in predicting match outcomes.
CCN estimates full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
problem Estimating CATE is insufficient; full potential outcome distributions provide greater insights.
method Collaborating Causal Networks (CCN) learns full potential outcome distributions without restrictive assumptions.
result CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture true potential outcome distributions.
Paper introduces GDR-learners for estimating potential outcomes from observational data.
problem Lack of theoretical property of general Neyman-orthogonality in deep generative models.
method Develops flexible GDR-learners based on various deep generative models.
result GDR-learners possess quasi-oracle efficiency and rate double robustness, asymptotically optimal.
Improves decision making by estimating bounds on potential outcomes.
problem Estimating individual treatment effects is complex and hard to estimate.
method Developed an algorithm to learn upper and lower bounds on potential outcomes that optimize an objective function defined by the decision maker.
result Our algorithm outperforms baselines, providing tighter, more reliable bounds.
The paper bounds and identifies joint probabilities in causal inference with monotonicity assumptions.
problem Bounding and identifying joint probabilities of potential outcomes and observed variables under monotonicity assumptions.
method Proposes new families of monotonicity assumptions, formulates bounding problem as linear programming, introduces new monotonicity assumption for identification.
result Validated methods through numerical experiments and applied to real-world datasets.
This tutorial introduces causal modeling methods for researchers.
problem Understanding causal relationships in research studies.
method Integrates potential outcomes and graphical methods for causal modeling.
result Clear notation and practical examples for applied researchers.
Nested sampling is a powerful technique for exploring high-likelihood regions, but its theoretical derivation is complex and involves approximations.
problem Sampling from likelihood-constrained priors in nested sampling
method Providing a comprehensive and detailed exposition of nested sampling derivation and practical challenges
result Deepening understanding of nested sampling and fostering future enhancements
New algorithm tackles nested bi-level optimization problems for robust feature learning.
problem Nested compositional bi-level optimization problems in machine learning.
method Stochastic approximation algorithms for solving nested compositional bi-level optimization problems without matrix inversions.
result Achieves an ε-stationary solution with an oracle complexity of approximately O_T(1/ε^2).
New ROC tools assess predictive abilities for any linearly ordered outcomes.
problem Fundamental restriction in ROC analysis for non-dichotomous outcomes.
method ROC movies and UROC curves for linearly ordered outcomes.
result CPA equals AUC for binary outcomes and relates to Spearman's coefficient for pairwise distinct outcomes.
Study clarifies variance of stratification estimators for causal effects.
problem Estimating average causal effects with discrete covariates.
method Combines insights from potential outcomes, causal diagrams, and structural models.
result Derives expressions for the variance of stratification estimators.
Model predicts community health outcomes from social media language.
problem Linking social media language to community health outcomes.
method Sentence embeddings, regression model, clustering, without additional data.
result Predicts community-level medical outcomes from social media language.
Novel AMM model for pegged cryptoassets using nested OU processes.
problem Liquidity and risk management in markets for pegged cryptoassets.
method Multi-level nested Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes for exchange rate dynamics, calibrated and filtered AMM model.
result Consistent efficient quotes and improved liquidity provision for pegged cryptoassets.
Bayesian DOE accelerates experimental design with improved efficiency.
problem Enhancing experimental design efficiency and reliability.
method Bayesian framework, conditional density estimation, informative data selection.
result Significantly improved computational efficiency of experimental design.
Proposes a method to improve CATE estimation by imputing missing potential outcomes.
problem Statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups in CATE estimation.
method Contrastive learning approach to reliably impute missing potential outcomes for a subset of individuals.
result Improves the accuracy and robustness of CATE estimation models.
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
Deep learning and genetic algorithms speed up cosmological Bayesian inference.
problem Substantial computational demands in Bayesian inference for cosmological parameter estimation.
method Deep learning using feedforward neural networks to approximate likelihood functions dynamically, optimized with genetic algorithms.
result Significant speed-up in Bayesian inference process for cosmological models and datasets.
Study cobordisms of nested manifolds and their invariants.
problem Understanding cobordisms of nested manifolds and their invariants.
method Identify a nested analog of the Pontryagin-Thom construction and find spaces homotopy equivalent to nested Pontryagin-Thom spaces.
result Discover nested cobordism invariants and provide an alternative proof of Wall's splitting result.
Model clusters networks and their communities simultaneously.
problem Clustering networks and their communities in unlabeled, heterogeneous networks.
method Nested Stochastic Block Model (NSBM) with Bayesian approach and NDP prior.
result Model accurately estimates both within and across network clustering structures.
The paper identifies the best treatment to maximize NDPO, a key outcome in causal mediation analysis.
problem Identifying the treatment that maximizes the expected natural direct potential outcome (NDPO) in causal mediation analysis.
method Developed a fixed-confidence best-arm identification (BAI) algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop (TaS) framework, using a cutting-set method to solve a semi-infinite optimization problem.
result The proposed algorithm achieves sample-efficient identification with a high-probability correctness guarantee and asymptotic optimality.
A new method removes biases in data integration by using surrogate control outcomes.
problem Data integration methods can be biased due to data-dependent processes.
method Post-integrated inference method using surrogate control outcomes to account for latent heterogeneity.
result The method provides consistent and efficient estimators under minimal assumptions and potential misspecifications.
Method estimates CATE using RCT data to handle hidden confounders.
problem Estimating CATE in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Pseudo-confounder generator and CATE model alignment.
result Method reduces bias in CATE estimation.
We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential outcomes using a deep multitask network with a set of shared layers among the fa…
In the absence of unobserved confounders, matching and weighting methods are widely used to estimate causal quantities including the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT). Unfortunately, these methods do not necessarily achieve their goal of making the multivariate distribution of covariates for the control gro…
New methods for estimating nested expectations in machine learning.
problem Nested expectations in machine learning and statistics.
method Investigation and analysis of statistical implications of nesting Monte Carlo estimators.
result Established conditions for convergence of nested MC estimators and derived corresponding rates.
Wasserstein Policy Learning for Distributional Outcomes
problem Offline policy learning with distribution-valued outcomes
method Establishing statistical guarantees for policy learning framework
result Proven leading dependence on N and N-dim(Π) for finite-sample regret
Quantum algorithm speeds up nested expectation estimation by nearly quadratically.
problem Estimating repeatedly nested expectations with quantum computing.
method Proposes a quantum algorithm achieving nearly quadratic speedup over classical methods.
result Achieves nearly quadratic speedup for RNEs, up to logarithmic factors.
Develops model selection for bandits balancing adversarial and stochastic guarantees.
problem Model selection in bandit scenarios with simultaneous adversarial and stochastic high-probability regret.
method Nested policy classes, balanced candidate regret bounds, mis-specification tests.
result Best of both world guarantees in linear bandits with simultaneous adversarial and stochastic environments.
Improved nested simulation for financial risk measurement.
problem Efficiently estimating nested risk measures in financial engineering.
method Reusing inner simulation outputs to improve efficiency and accuracy.
result The proposed approach outperforms standard nested simulation and regression methods.
Scalable tools for nested optimization in deep learning.
problem Solving nested optimization problems on a large scale in deep learning.
method Building scalable tools for bilevel optimization.
result Tools for nested optimization scale to deep learning setups.
Paper proposes a new estimator for nested expectations with faster convergence.
problem Estimating nested expectations is computationally challenging.
method Nested kernel quadrature estimators with proof of faster convergence rate.
result The proposed method requires fewer samples for accurate estimation.
Estimates personalized policies robust to shifts in target populations.
problem Estimating policies that perform well in diverse target populations.
method Develops methods for estimating robust policies considering shifts in outcomes and characteristics.
result Welfare-maximizing policies are robust to certain shifts in potential outcomes.
Let R be an o-minimal expansion of the real field, and let L(R) be the language consisting of all nested Rolle leaves over R. We call a set nested subpfaffian over R if it is the projection of a boolean combination of definable sets and nested Rolle leaves over R. Assuming that R admits analytic cell decomposition, we …
A new meta-learner improves prediction of individualized outcomes in sequential decisions.
problem Predicting individualized outcomes over long horizons in sequential decision-making.
method Developed a novel meta-learner called DRQ-learner with theoretical guarantees of orthogonality and quasi-oracle efficiency.
result DRQ-learner achieves quasi-oracle efficiency, doubly robustness, and Neyman-orthogonality.
The paper introduces vortex cycles and nerves, inspired by Thomson's vortex atoms.
problem Understanding vortex structures and their homology.
method Introducing and analyzing non-concentric, nesting vortex cycles and nerves.
result Whitehead CW topology and Leader uniform topology outcomes of vortex cycles.
Bounds and sensitivity analysis for causal effects with MNAR confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects with missing outcome data.
method Assumption-free bounds and sensitivity analysis for outcome-independent MNAR.
result Valid bounds and sensitivity analysis methods for causal effect estimation.
Develops a method for learning proposals in nested importance samplers.
problem Improving sampling quality in complex distributions.
method Nested Variational Inference (NVI) using forward or reverse KL divergence.
result Optimizing nested objectives leads to improved sample quality.
Proposes a deep learning framework for estimating counterfactual outcomes.
problem Challenges in estimating individual outcomes under different treatments.
method Deep variational Bayesian framework integrating factual and similar subjects' outcomes.
result Rigorously integrates individual features and similar subjects' responses for counterfactual outcomes.
Nested model averaging improves high-dimensional linear regression performance.
problem High-dimensional linear regression with predictor ordering impact.
method Combining model averaging with regularized estimators on the solution path.
result Nested model averaging with lasso and SLOPE outperforms competing methods.
The goal is to understand the index-theoretic aspects of the recent preprint of R. Nest and F. Radulescu, math.OA/9911042. The basic observation (due to E. Guenter/N. Higson) is that the index of the Toeplitz operator is equal to the index of an associated Callias type operator, i.e. a Dirac operator with potential, th…