Paper proves global convergence of NCELM model.
problem Ensuring global convergence of NCELM model.
method Two-stage process: random base learners and NCL penalty term updates.
result Global convergence of NCELM proved using Banach theorem.
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48 results for “Negative Correlation Extreme Learning Machine (NCELM)”
GNCL algorithm controls diversity in deep ensembles.
problem Managing bias and variance in deep ensembles.
method Generalized bias-variance decomposition for arbitrary loss functions, leading to GNCL algorithm.
result Explicit control over ensemble diversity and smooth interpolation between independent and joint training.
The paper explores the relationship between joint mixability and negative dependence structures.
problem Understanding the connection between joint mixability and various negative dependence concepts.
method Analyzes the properties of joint mixes and their relation to negative dependence structures.
result Derives necessary and sufficient conditions for a joint mix to be negatively dependent.
Audit financial machine learning workflows to detect spurious predictability.
problem Spurious predictability in financial machine learning models.
method Falsification audit testing predictive workflows against synthetic environments.
result Many apparent financial predictions are artifacts, not genuine.
This paper explores emerging methods for estimating variable importance in machine learning.
problem Estimating the importance of variables in machine learning models.
method Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Predictive Error Function (PERF), Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBOOST).
result PERF and RF showed the best performance in highly correlated data, while PERF and XGBOOST performed poorly on small data sizes.
In this technical report, we discuss several sampling algorithms for Determinantal Point Processes (DPP). DPPs have recently gained a broad interest in the machine learning and statistics literature as random point processes with negative correlation, i.e., ones that can generate a "diverse" sample from a set of items.…
Mammography is often used as the most common laboratory method for the detection of breast cancer, yet associated with the high cost and many side effects. Machine learning prediction as an alternative method has shown promising results. This paper presents a method based on a multilayer fuzzy expert system for the det…
A central area of research in nonlinear science is the study of instabilities that drive the emergence of extreme events. Unfortunately, experimental techniques for measuring such phenomena often provide only partial characterization. For example, real-time studies of instabilities in nonlinear fibre optics frequently …
A new framework evaluates model performance on single input points, revealing insights into data and model structure.
problem Traditional evaluation methods in machine learning are insufficient for understanding model performance and data structure.
method Developed a pointwise framework to measure model performance on individual input points, analyzing the relationship between pointwise and average performance.
result Profiles of data points reveal different types of correlations between pointwise and average performance, challenging existing models of learning.
We consider the signed density of the extremal points of (two-dimensional) scalar fields with a Gaussian distribution. We assign a positive unit charge to the maxima and minima of the function and a negative one to its saddles. At first, we compute the average density for a field in half-space with Dirichlet boundary c…
Many Machine Learning algorithms, such as deep neural networks, have long been criticized for being "black-boxes"-a kind of models unable to provide how it arrive at a decision without further efforts to interpret. This problem has raised concerns on model applications' trust, safety, nondiscrimination, and other ethic…
Extreme Value Analysis for Finite, Multivariate and Correlated Systems with Finance as an Exampleq-fin.ST
We develop a framework for analyzing extreme values in correlated financial data.
problem Quantifying and mitigating risk in complex financial systems.
method Developed a practical framework for handling finite, multivariate, and correlated time series in finance.
result We successfully analyze high-frequency stock returns using univariate extreme value tools.
Quantum Extremal Learningquant-ph
Quantum algorithm finds extremal values without direct function access.
problem Finding extremal values of hidden functions without direct access.
method Parametric quantum circuit trained with a trainable quantum feature map.
result Algorithm successfully finds extremal values even with sparse training data.
In this paper, we consider voxel selection for functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) brain data with the aim of finding a more complete set of probably correlated discriminative voxels, thus improving interpretation of the discovered potential biomarkers. The main difficulty in doing this is an extremely high di…
Logit correction improves model performance by correcting spurious correlations.
problem Spurious correlations lead to poor model performance during inference.
method Proposes logit correction (LC) loss to mitigate spurious correlations.
result LC loss outperforms state-of-the-art solutions by 5.5% absolute improvement.
Hebbian Learning from First Principlescond-mat.dis-nn
Hebbian learning derived from maximum entropy principles.
problem Storing and retrieving information in neural networks.
method Maximum entropy extremization to derive Hebbian learning rules.
result Hebbian learning rules converge to Hopfield model in the big data limit.
Develops Bayesian inference methods for gamma models.
problem Challenges in inference for models with gamma functions.
method Data augmentation scheme using Exponential Reciprocal Gamma distributions.
result Scalable EM and MCMC algorithms developed.
Financial markets are highly correlated systems that reveal both the inter-market dependencies and the correlations among their different components. Standard analyzing techniques include correlation coefficients for pairs of signals and correlation matrices for rich multivariate data. In the latter case one constructs…
Proposes a hierarchical clustering method for positive and negative dissimilarities.
problem Clustering dissimilarities, especially positive and negative.
method Hierarchical correlation clustering followed by tree preserving embedding.
result Performance on various datasets.
Then detection and identification of extreme weather events in large-scale climate simulations is an important problem for risk management, informing governmental policy decisions and advancing our basic understanding of the climate system. Recent work has shown that fully supervised convolutional neural networks (CNNs…
WEINCE improves contrastive learning by correcting softmax biases.
problem Softmax in InfoNCE can lead to misaligned statistical assumptions in contrastive learning.
method WEINCE uses anchor-wise online batch statistics to blend softmax logits with an endpoint shortfall correction.
result WEINCE yields consistent improvements in frozen-feature evaluation across five vision benchmarks.
It will be discussed the statistics of the extreme values in time series characterized by finite-term correlations with non-exponential decay. Precisely, it will be considered the results of numerical analyses concerning the return intervals of extreme values of the fluctuations of resistance and defect-fraction displa…
During times of extreme market turmoil, it is acknowledged that there is a tendency towards "flight to safety". A strong (weak) safe haven is defined as an asset that has a significant positive (negative) return in periods where another asset is in distress, while hedge has to be negatively correlated (uncorrelated) on…
Study evaluates feature ranking methods' faithfulness in ML models, improving with dimensionality reduction.
problem Quantifying and improving the faithfulness of feature ranking methods in ML models.
method Evaluation of multiple feature ranking methods, including SHAP, LIME, ALE variance, and LR coefficients, using permutation importance as a baseline.
result Dimensionality reduction improves the faithfulness of feature ranking methods, making permutation importance the most faithful method.
In this article, we improve extreme learning machines for regression tasks using a graph signal processing based regularization. We assume that the target signal for prediction or regression is a graph signal. With this assumption, we use the regularization to enforce that the output of an extreme learning machine is s…
We use the theory of normal variance-mean mixtures to derive a data augmentation scheme for models that include gamma functions. Our methodology applies to many situations in statistics and machine learning, including Multinomial-Dirichlet distributions, Negative binomial regression, Poisson-Gamma hierarchical models, …
Trans-Bifurcation Prediction of Dynamics in terms of Extreme Learning Machines with Control Inputsnlin.CD
Extremely accurate prediction of dynamical system bifurcations using control inputs.
problem Predicting complex bifurcation structures in dynamical systems.
method Extending extreme learning machines with control inputs to model system dynamics.
result The model can nearly reproduce the entire structure of bifurcations using only a few parameter values.
Pairwise counter-monotonicityq-fin.RM
Study on pairwise counter-monotonicity, a type of negative dependence.
problem Understanding and quantifying extremal negative dependence structures.
method Established stochastic representation and invariance property; showed implications and connections.
result Pairwise counter-monotonicity implies negative association and joint mix dependence.
This paper uses ML and EVT to analyze tree ring data, improving accuracy of predictions.
problem Analyzing tree ring data for climate modeling and historical studies.
method Combines machine learning algorithms with extreme value theory for data analysis.
result Random Forest method yields the most accurate results for tree ring data analysis.
Emerging Statistical Machine Learning Techniques for Extreme Temperature Forecasting in U.S. Citiesstat.AP
The paper analyzes extreme temperature forecasting using machine learning models.
problem Forecasting extreme temperatures in U.S. cities.
method Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Multilayer Perceptrons, Gaussian Processes.
result Multilayer Perceptrons were found to be the most effective approach for forecasting extreme temperatures.
Study on price fluctuations and persistence in European electricity spot markets.
problem Analyzing variability and persistence of electricity prices in European spot markets.
method Analysis of hourly, intraday, and 15-min intraday market prices; quantification of fluctuations, correlations, and extreme events; classification into circulation weather types.
result Different time scales in market dynamics; multifractal behavior below 12 hours; anti-correlation and mean reversion above 12 hours; long-term behavior influenced by four-day weather patterns; -Gaussian distributions as best fit.
Characterizes symmetric Bernoulli distributions with minimal convex sums.
problem Understanding minimal dependence among Bernoulli random vectors.
method Geometric and algebraic representations of multivariate symmetric Bernoulli distributions.
result Characterizes extremal negative dependence and builds minimal dependence copulas.
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Distance correlation has gained much recent attention in the data science community: the sample statistic is straightforward to compute and asymptotically equals zero if and only if independence, making it an ideal choice to discover any type of dependency structure given sufficient sample size. One major bottleneck is…
Beyond Picking Winners: Correlation-Driven Tail Risk in Venture Capital Portfolio Constructionq-fin.PM
Proposes a new framework to manage venture capital portfolio risk by focusing on deal-level correlations.
problem Managing venture capital portfolio risk, especially extreme outcomes.
method Gaussian-copula-based framework that learns deal-level dependence from observed joint success frequencies.
result Correlation amplifies extreme upside outcomes, shifting portfolio distribution toward heavier right tails.
Extreme multi-label classification refers to supervised multi-label learning involving hundreds of thousands or even millions of labels. Datasets in extreme classification exhibit fit to power-law distribution, i.e. a large fraction of labels have very few positive instances in the data distribution. Most state-of-the-…
We find that when measured in terms of dollar-turnover, and once -neutralised and Low-Vol neutralised, the Size Effect is alive and well. With a long term t-stat of , the "Cold-Minus-Hot" (CMH) anomaly is certainly not less significant than other well-known factors such as Value or Quality. As compared to marke…
The separability assumption (Donoho & Stodden, 2003; Arora et al., 2012) turns non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) into a tractable problem. Recently, a new class of provably-correct NMF algorithms have emerged under this assumption. In this paper, we reformulate the separable NMF problem as that of finding the ext…
The study of healthy brain development helps to better understand the brain transformation and brain connectivity patterns which happen during childhood to adulthood. This study presents a sparse machine learning solution across whole-brain functional connectivity (FC) measures of three sets of data, derived from resti…
Model captures asymmetric extreme events in financial returns.
problem Capturing asymmetric extreme events in financial returns.
method Two-tailed peak-over-threshold Hawkes model.
result Extreme losses contribute twice as much as gains but decay more quickly.
The study corrects measurement error in evaluating health effects of multiple pollutants.
problem Bias in estimating health effects of air pollution constituents due to mismeasurement.
method Used a linear regression calibration model and extended DML approach to correct for measurement error.
result Identified two PM2.5 constituents (Br and Mn) that show a negative causal effect on cognitive function after correction.
High-dimensional data are ubiquitous in contemporary science and finding methods to compress them is one of the primary goals of machine learning. Given a dataset lying in a high-dimensional space (in principle hundreds to several thousands of dimensions), it is often useful to project it onto a lower-dimensional manif…
ELM speeds up financial machine learning tasks.
problem Efficiently solving time-sensitive financial tasks with machine learning.
method Single-layer neural networks with random initialization and convex optimization.
result ELM achieves significant computational efficiency in financial applications.
Let be a compact Riemann surface of genus of constant negative curvature -1. An extremal disk is an embedded (resp. covering) disk of maximal (resp. minimal) radius. A surface containing an extremal disk is an {\em extremal surface}. This paper gives formulas enumerating extremal surfaces of genus …
Extreme learning machine (ELM) is a new single hidden layer feedback neural network. The weights of the input layer and the biases of neurons in hidden layer are randomly generated, the weights of the output layer can be analytically determined. ELM has been achieved good results for a large number of classification ta…
Extreme value theory enhances statistical learning extrapolation for rare events.
problem Challenges in traditional machine learning methods for extreme data.
method Asymptotic theory and statistical tools for tail behavior.
result Effective extrapolation methods for extreme quantiles and anomalies.
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are elegant probabilistic models of repulsion that arise in quantum physics and random matrix theory. In contrast to traditional structured models like Markov random fields, which become intractable and hard to approximate in the presence of negative correlations, DPPs offer efficie…
Study improves PM concentration forecasting using MCCR loss.
problem Forecasting particulate matter concentration in South Korea.
method Used MCCR loss for regression analysis of air pollution and weather data.
result MCCR loss is more effective for extreme value forecasting.