arXiv research

Researchers predict NBA player salaries using machine learning, avoiding overfitting.

Develops a framework to estimate NBA player salary ROI.

We develop a machine learning approach to represent and analyze the underlying spatial structure that governs shot selection among professional basketball players in the NBA. Typically, NBA players are discussed and compared in an heuristic, imprecise manner that relies on unmeasured intuitions about player behavior. T…

Method predicts NBA players' multi-modal movement trajectories.

Develops a new method to discover causal relationships from nonstationary time series data.

A variety of machine learning models have been proposed to assess the performance of players in professional sports. However, they have only a limited ability to model how player performance depends on the game context. This paper proposes a new approach to capturing game context: we apply Deep Reinforcement Learning (…

New framework values football players based on in-game interactions.

How does one objectively measure the performance of an individual offensive lineman in the NFL? The existing literature proposes various measures that rely on subjective assessments of game film, but has yet to develop an objective methodology to evaluate performance. Using a variety of statistics related to an offensi…

A new graph neural network (NBA-GNN) avoids revisiting nodes to improve accuracy.

This paper analyzes arbitrage opportunities in Polymarket's NBA markets.

Paper learns DAGs with quadratic variance functions efficiently.

In this paper, we employ machine learning techniques to analyze seventeen seasons (1999-2000 to 2015-2016) of NBA regular season data from every team to determine the common characteristics among NBA playoff teams. Each team was characterized by 26 predictor variables and one binary response variable taking on a value …

MOVDA improves skill ratings by considering margin of victory deviations.

This article presents a new model for demographic simulation which can be used to forecast and estimate the number of people in pension funds (contributors and retirees) as well as workers in a public institution. Furthermore, the model introduces opportunities to quantify the financial ows coming from future populatio…

The excessive compensation packages of CEOs of U.S. corporations in recent years have brought to the foreground the issue of fairness in economics. The conventional wisdom is that the free market for labor, which determines the pay packages, cares only about efficiency and not fairness. We present an alternative theory…

Inefficient markets allow investors to consistently outperform the market. To demonstrate that inefficiencies exist in sports betting markets, we created a betting algorithm that generates above market returns for the NFL, NBA, NCAAF, NCAAB, and WNBA betting markets. To formulate our betting strategy, we collected and …

Although freelancing work has grown substantially in recent years, in part facilitated by a number of online labor marketplaces, (e.g., Guru, Freelancer, Amazon Mechanical Turk), traditional forms of "in-sourcing" work continue being the dominant form of employment. This means that, at least for the time being, freelan…

Machine learning models are increasingly used in the industry to make decisions such as credit insurance approval. Some people may be tempted to manipulate specific variables, such as the age or the salary, in order to get better chances of approval. In this ongoing work, we propose to discuss, with a first proposition…

We study stochastic multi-armed bandits with many players. The players do not know the number of players, cannot communicate with each other and if multiple players select a common arm they collide and none of them receive any reward. We consider the static scenario, where the number of players remains fixed, and the d…

We consider a symmetric multi-players zero-sum game with two strategic variables. There are $n$ players, $n\geq 3$. Each player is denoted by $i$. Two strategic variables are $t_i$ and $s_i$, $i\in \{1, \dots, n\}$. They are related by invertible functions. Using the minimax theorem by \cite{sion} we will show that Nas…

A multi-player bandit system resists adversarial attacks with near-optimal regret.

We consider two-player non-zero-sum stopping games in discrete time. Unlike Dynkin games, in our games the payoff of each player is revealed after both players stop. Moreover, each player can adjust her own stopping strategy according to the other player's action. In the first part of the paper, we consider the game wh…

We consider a fully decentralized multi-player stochastic multi-armed bandit setting where the players cannot communicate with each other and can observe only their own actions and rewards. The environment may appear differently to different players, $\textit{i.e.}$, the reward distributions for a given arm are heterog…

New algorithms for n-player games using a player-centered approach.

New algorithm tackles multi-player bandit problems with limited access to arms.

Paper presents Transfer Portal model for accurate player performance predictions.

A new algorithm RESYNC for defenders against malicious attackers in multi-player bandits.

Study predicts soccer player market values using machine learning and SHAP for interpretability.

Algorithm optimizes multi-player learning with noisy rewards without direct communication.

New strategy achieves optimal regret without communication or collisions in multi-player bandit.

New algorithm for multi-player bandits in decentralized, asynchronous systems.

We consider the non-stochastic version of the (cooperative) multi-player multi-armed bandit problem. The model assumes no communication at all between the players, and furthermore when two (or more) players select the same action this results in a maximal loss. We prove the first $\sqrt{T}$-type regret guarantee for th…

The possibility of using player engagement predictions to profile high spending video game users is explored. In particular, individual-player survival curves in terms of days after first login, game level reached and accumulated playtime are used to classify players into different groups. Lifetime value predictions fo…

In this paper we present an early Apprenticeship Learning approach to mimic the behaviour of different players in a short adaption of the interactive fiction Anchorhead. Our motivation is the need to understand and simulate player behaviour to create systems to aid the design and personalisation of Interactive Narrativ…

New learning dynamics adapt to corrupted games, improving performance in real-world scenarios.

Paper presents content-based models for game recommendation in cold start scenarios.

We study a multiplayer stochastic multi-armed bandit problem in which players cannot communicate, and if two or more players pull the same arm, a collision occurs and the involved players receive zero reward. We consider the challenging heterogeneous setting, in which different arms may have different means for differe…

Algorithm reduces regret in multi-player bandits with unknown collision rewards.

Assessing the impact of the individual actions performed by soccer players during games is a crucial aspect of the player recruitment process. Unfortunately, most traditional metrics fall short in addressing this task as they either focus on rare actions like shots and goals alone or fail to account for the context in …

We consider a setting where multiple players sequentially choose among a common set of actions (arms). Motivated by a cognitive radio networks application, we assume that players incur a loss upon colliding, and that communication between players is not possible. Existing approaches assume that the system is stationary…

Motivated by cognitive radios, stochastic multi-player multi-armed bandits gained a lot of interest recently. In this class of problems, several players simultaneously pull arms and encounter a collision - with 0 reward - if some of them pull the same arm at the same time. While the cooperative case where players maxim…

The paper analyzes a game where players must balance short-term and long-term interests, leading to cooperative or competitive outcomes.

Over the last few decades, the player recruitment process in professional football has evolved into a multi-billion industry and has thus become of vital importance. To gain insights into the general level of their candidate reinforcements, many professional football clubs have access to extensive video footage and adv…

MpFL models clients as strategic players to reach equilibrium with less communication.

Algorithm aggregates rewards from multiple players to learn related tasks in online bandit learning.

The in-game economies of massively multi-player online games (MMOGs) are complex systems that have to be carefully designed and managed. This paper presents the results of an analysis of auction house data from the MMOG Glitch, across a 14 month time period, the entire lifetime of the game. The data comprise almost 3 m…

Study proposes new OPE estimators for two-player zero-sum games.

The paper addresses the Multiplayer Multi-Armed Bandit (MMAB) problem, where $M$ decision makers or players collaborate to maximize their cumulative reward. When several players select the same arm, a collision occurs and no reward is collected on this arm. Players involved in a collision are informed about this collis…