arXiv research

The paper uses persistent homology to estimate recurrence times in multi-variate time series.

We show that the visible sector probability density function of the Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine corresponds to a gaussian mixture model consisting of an infinite number of component multi-variate gaussians. The weights of the mixture are given by a discrete multi-variate gaussian over the hidden state space. This a…

Develops a new model for network estimation from multi-variate data.

A novel algorithm predicts customized allergy seasons using multi-variate triple-regression.

We tackle the problem of classifying Electrocardiography (ECG) signals with the aim of predicting the onset of Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation (PAF). Atrial fibrillation is the most common type of arrhythmia, but in many cases PAF episodes are asymptomatic. Therefore, in order to help diagnosing PAF, it is important to …

We investigate under which conditions a single simulation of joint default times at a final time horizon can be decomposed into a set of simulations of joint defaults on subsequent adjacent sub-periods leading to that final horizon. Besides the theoretical interest, this is also a practical problem as part of the indus…

Study discovers patterns in insulin needs for T1D patients.

In this paper, we investigate the multi-variate sequence classification problem from a multi-instance learning perspective. Real-world sequential data commonly show discriminative patterns only at specific time periods. For instance, we can identify a cropland during its growing season, but it looks similar to a barren…

New method detects anomalies in systems influenced by their environment.

Modern machine learning uses more and more advanced optimization techniques to find optimal hyper parameters. Whenever the objective function is non-convex, non continuous and with potentially multiple local minima, standard gradient descent optimization methods fail. A last resource and very different method is to ass…

Granger causality has been used for the investigation of the inter-dependence structure of the underlying systems of multi-variate time series. In particular, the direct causal effects are commonly estimated by the conditional Granger causality index (CGCI). In the presence of many observed variables and relatively sho…

The paper proposes a method for valid multi-target regression predictions.

We investigate how simultaneously recorded long-range power-law correlated multi-variate signals cross-correlate. To this end we introduce a two-component ARFIMA stochastic process and a two-component FIARCH process to generate coupled fractal signals with long-range power-law correlations which are at the same time lo…

This paper introduces a novel theoretically sound approach for the celebrated CMA-ES algorithm. Assuming the parameters of the multi variate normal distribution for the minimum follow a conjugate prior distribution, we derive their optimal update at each iteration step. Not only provides this Bayesian framework a justi…

Generative adversarial networks are a class of generative algorithms that have been widely used to produce state-of-the-art samples. In this paper, we investigate GAN to perform anomaly detection on time series dataset. In order to achieve this goal, a bibliography is made focusing on theoretical properties of GAN and …

Study of entropy-regularized LQG MFGs with exploratory actions.

PoPPy is a Point Process toolbox based on PyTorch, which achieves flexible designing and efficient learning of point process models. It can be used for interpretable sequential data modeling and analysis, e.g., Granger causality analysis of multi-variate point processes, point process-based simulation and prediction of…

A novel non-supervised method detects anomalies in multivariate time series.

Proposes a method to create fair, robust predictors that remain consistent across different scenarios.

This paper presents Natural Evolution Strategies (NES), a recent family of algorithms that constitute a more principled approach to black-box optimization than established evolutionary algorithms. NES maintains a parameterized distribution on the set of solution candidates, and the natural gradient is used to update th…

This paper presents a simple method for a posteriori (historical) multi-variate multi-stage optimal trading under transaction costs and a diversification constraint. Starting from a given amount of money in some currency, we analyze the stage-wise optimal allocation over a time horizon with potential investments in mul…

Empirical study shows Randomized Signature Methods improve portfolio optimization in financial markets.

A new neural network model uses polynomial chaos theory to improve neural signal processing.

In this paper, we consider the problem of event classification with multi-variate time series data consisting of heterogeneous (continuous and categorical) variables. The complex temporal dependencies between the variables combined with sparsity of the data makes the event classification problem particularly challengin…

Unsupervised clustering of series using dynamic programming.

Graph Neural Network improves causal inference in dynamic systems.

We propose a novel kernel based post selection inference (PSI) algorithm, which can not only handle non-linearity in data but also structured output such as multi-dimensional and multi-label outputs. Specifically, we develop a PSI algorithm for independence measures, and propose the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criteri…

KLT picker automates particle picking for cryo-EM, especially for low SNR images.

A new method for nonparametric regression using mesh-based solutions.

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and the locally connected layer are limited in capturing the importance and relations of different local receptive fields, which are often crucial for tasks such as face verification, visual question answering, and word sequence prediction. To tackle the issue, we propose a novel loc…

This paper presents a novel time series clustering method, the self-organising eigenspace map (SOEM), based on a generalisation of the well-known self-organising feature map (SOFM). The SOEM operates on the eigenspaces of the embedded covariance structures of time series which are related directly to modes in those tim…

Noise-aware Bayesian inference framework for locally private data collection.

New deep probabilistic model handles missing data in time series forecasting.

New algorithms identify Pareto optimal sets in multi-objective bandit problems.

ANNs extrapolate without training data, leading to uncertain predictions.

TIMeSynC combines financial service interactions for intent prediction.

CTGAN synthesizes population data for travel behavior simulation.

fMRI semantic category understanding using linguistic encoding models attempt to learn a forward mapping that relates stimuli to the corresponding brain activation. Classical encoding models use linear multi-variate methods to predict the brain activation (all voxels) given the stimulus. However, these methods essentia…

Consider a multi-variate time series $(X_t)_{t=0}^{T}$ where $X_t \in \mathbb{R}^d$ which may represent spike train responses for multiple neurons in a brain, crime event data across multiple regions, and many others. An important challenge associated with these time series models is to estimate an influence network be…

This work aims to create a large-scale model for critical care time series data.

Blood glucose value prediction is an important task in diabetes management. While it is reported that glucose concentration is sensitive to social context such as mood, physical activity, stress, diet, alongside the influence of diabetes pathologies, we need more research on data and methodologies to incorporate and ev…

The paper develops personalized DAG models for web user behavior.

Paper presents voxel graph operators for vector data models.

This paper presents an efficient approach for subsequence search in data streams. The problem consists in identifying coherent repetitions of a given reference time-series, eventually multi-variate, within a longer data stream. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is the metric most widely used to implement pattern query, but it…

We propose a novel methodology, forest floor, to visualize and interpret random forest (RF) models. RF is a popular and useful tool for non-linear multi-variate classification and regression, which yields a good trade-off between robustness (low variance) and adaptiveness (low bias). Direct interpretation of a RF model…

In machine learning, we are given a dataset of the form $\{(\mathbf{x}_j,y_j)\}_{j=1}^M$, drawn as i.i.d. samples from an unknown probability distribution $μ$; the marginal distribution for the $\mathbf{x}_j$'s being $μ^*$. We propose that rather than using a positive kernel such as the Gaussian for estimation of these…

Universal approach combines OOD detection scores for robustness.

Case vs control comparisons have been the classical approach to the study of neurological diseases. However, most patients will not fall cleanly into either group. Instead, clinicians will typically find patients that cannot be classified as having clearly progressed into the disease state. For those subjects, very lit…