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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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336598130 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Multi-step Updates

The paper addresses Dyna-style RL's value hallucination issue by proposing a new algorithm.

problem Value hallucination in Dyna-style RL due to bootstrapping simulated states.
method Introduces a new Dyna algorithm using predecessor models with multi-step updates.
result Evidence supports the Hallucinated Value Hypothesis (HVH), suggesting predecessor models with multi-step updates are promising.

FedSGM tackles constrained federated learning with unified framework.

problem Functional constraints, communication bottlenecks, local updates, and partial client participation in federated learning.
method Unified framework based on switching gradient method, incorporating bi-directional error feedback, and soft switching for stability.
result Achieves O(1/T)\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{T}) convergence rate with high-probability bounds decoupling from sampling noise.

FedSARSA converges with heterogeneous agents, achieving linear speed-up.

problem Convergence analysis of Federated SARSA with heterogeneous agents.
method Linear function approximation, local training, multi-step error expansion.
result FedSARSA achieves linear speed-up with respect to the number of agents.

Proposes QDF to improve multi-step time-series forecasting.

problem Ignoring label autocorrelation and unequal task weights in training objectives.
method Quadratic-form weighted training objective and QDF learning algorithm.
result Improves performance of various forecast models, achieving state-of-the-art results.

New insights into neural network feature learning through multi-step gradient descent.

problem Understanding feature learning in two-layer neural networks with limited width.
method Characterization of feature learning through two steps of gradient descent with specific step sizes.
result The second step of gradient descent reveals multiple learned directions, not limited to a single direction as in the first step.

W-Flow generates images in one step, faster and better than multi-step methods.

problem Efficiently generating images from a simple reference distribution to a target data distribution.
method W-Flow uses Wasserstein gradient flows to transform the reference distribution to the target distribution in a single step, trained with Sinkhorn divergence.
result W-Flow achieves state-of-the-art results in ImageNet 256imes imes256 generation with improved mode coverage and faster sampling.

The paper calculates prices for multi-step barrier options under the Black-Scholes model.

problem Calculating prices for multi-step barrier options with varying barriers and time steps.
method Derives a general, explicit expression for option prices using the Black-Scholes model and a multi-step reflection principle.
result Derives a multi-step reflection principle that generalizes the reflection principle of Brownian motion.

Efficiently optimizes expensive functions with multi-step lookahead using one-shot optimization.

problem Optimizing expensive functions with long-term impacts using myopic approaches.
method Formulated as nested optimization problems within a multi-step scenario tree, optimized in one-shot fashion.
result Multi-step expected improvement is computationally tractable and outperforms existing methods.

Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.

problem Generating realistic correlation structures in multi-step forecast sample paths is expensive and time-consuming.
method Copula-based approach to generate correlated sample paths in one forward pass.
result Improved sample path quality and significant speedup over autoregressive sampling.

Reinforcement learning has attracted great attention recently, especially policy gradient algorithms, which have been demonstrated on challenging decision making and control tasks. In this paper, we propose an active multi-step TD algorithm with adaptive stepsizes to learn actor and critic. Specifically, our model cons…

2019-11-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper adapts ACI for online multi-step time-series forecasting with coverage guarantees.

problem Achieving reliable error bounds in online multi-step time-series forecasting.
method Adaptive conformal inference (ACI) adapted for multi-step forecasting with dynamic significance levels.
result Proposes a multi-step ACI algorithm with finite-sample coverage guarantees for non-exchangeable data.

The paper introduces a multi-step loss function to improve model-based reinforcement learning.

problem Compounding of one-step prediction errors in long trajectories.
method A multi-step objective function combining MSE losses at various future horizons.
result Models trained with the multi-step loss achieve significant improvement in future prediction.

Looped Transformers learn to implement multi-step gradient descent for in-context learning.

problem Understanding the learnability of multi-step algorithms in multi-layer Transformers.
method Training weight-sharing looped Transformers for in-context linear regression, proving gradient dominance condition for convergence.
result Looped Transformers implement multi-step preconditioned gradient descent, converging to global minimizer.

This paper analyzes convergence of FL for neural networks using NTK.

problem Theoretical guarantees of FL for neural networks with explicit forms and multi-step updates are unexplored.
method FL-NTK framework for federated learning of ReLU neural networks trained by gradient descent.
result FL-NTK converges to a global-optimal solution at a linear rate with proper learning parameters.

Paper proposes a dual-level approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems.

problem Accurate multi-step forecasting of time series systems for automatic control and optimization.
method Hybrid input forecasting using LSTM-STMs and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs).
result Hybrid models achieve higher log-likelihood and lower MSE compared to conventional methods.

Model-based reinforcement learning is an appealing framework for creating agents that learn, plan, and act in sequential environments. Model-based algorithms typically involve learning a transition model that takes a state and an action and outputs the next state---a one-step model. This model can be composed with itse…

2019-05-30abs ↗pdf ↗

In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on some finite history is of interest. This problem is significantly mor…

2018-03-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Diffusion-VAE tackles multi-step stock price prediction with stochastic noise.

problem Challenges in multi-step stock price prediction due to stochasticity and target price sequence.
method Combines hierarchical VAE and diffusion probabilistic techniques for seq2seq stock prediction.
result D-Va model outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in prediction accuracy and variance.

Real Time Dynamic Programming (RTDP) is an online algorithm based on Dynamic Programming (DP) that acts by 1-step greedy planning. Unlike DP, RTDP does not require access to the entire state space, i.e., it explicitly handles the exploration. This fact makes RTDP particularly appealing when the state space is large and…

2019-09-10abs ↗pdf ↗

State construction is important for learning in partially observable environments. A general purpose strategy for state construction is to learn the state update using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), which updates the internal state using the current internal state and the most recent observation. This internal state…

2018-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Quantile deep learning improves time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

problem Uncertainty in multi-step time series prediction.
method Developed a novel quantile regression deep learning framework for multi-step time series prediction.
result Integrating quantile loss function with deep learning provides additional predictions for selected quantiles without loss in accuracy.

Transformers learn multi-step reasoning through gradient descent.

problem Understanding how transformers solve symbolic multi-step reasoning tasks.
method Theoretical analysis of gradient descent dynamics and multi-phase training.
result Trained one-layer transformers can solve both backward and forward reasoning tasks with generalization guarantees.

Proposes Constrained Q-learning for reinforcement learning with constraints.

problem Optimizing multiple objectives while adhering to constraints in reinforcement learning.
method Directly restricts the action space in Q-update to learn optimal Q-function for constrained MDP.
result Improves safety and optimality in high-level decision making for autonomous driving.

Proposes a framework to quantify uncertainty in multi-step decision-making by LLMs.

problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-step decision-making scenarios of LLMs.
method A principled, information-theoretic framework decomposing uncertainty into internal and extrinsic components, and proposing UProp for efficient extrinsic uncertainty estimation.
result UProp significantly outperforms existing single-turn UQ baselines in multi-step decision-making benchmarks.

As a popular meta-learning approach, the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm has been widely used due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, the convergence of the general multi-step MAML still remains unexplored. In this paper, we develop a new theoretical framework to provide such convergence guarant…

2020-02-18abs ↗pdf ↗

AEnbMIMOCQR generates robust multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.

problem Generating reliable multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.
method Adaptive ensemble batch multi-input multi-output conformalized quantile regression (AEnbMIMOCQR) based on conformal prediction principles.
result AEnbMIMOCQR provides close to exact coverage and robustness to distribution shifts.

Multi-step greedy policies have been extensively used in model-based reinforcement learning (RL), both when a model of the environment is available (e.g.,~in the game of Go) and when it is learned. In this paper, we explore their benefits in model-free RL, when employed using multi-step dynamic programming algorithms: …

2019-10-07abs ↗pdf ↗

This work analyzes CoT prompting methods from a statistical estimation perspective.

problem Improving the effectiveness of LLMs in solving multi-step reasoning problems.
method Introducing a multi-step latent variable model to characterize CoT prompting from a statistical estimation viewpoint.
result The CoT estimator is equivalent to a Bayesian estimator when the pretraining dataset is large.

In this paper, we address the Online Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (OUDA) problem, where the target data are unlabelled and arriving sequentially. The traditional methods on the OUDA problem mainly focus on transforming each arriving target data to the source domain, and they do not sufficiently consider the temporal …

2020-02-20abs ↗pdf ↗

JANET improves time series prediction with adaptive uncertainty regions.

problem Time series data's lack of exchangeability and multi-step prediction challenges.
method Proposes JANET, a framework for joint adaptive prediction regions with controlled error rates.
result Demonstrates superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse datasets.