Bayesian Invariant Prediction models stable features from multi-environment data.
problem Analyzing stable features across multiple environments for better prediction and understanding.
method Developed Bayesian Invariant Prediction (BIP) model that encodes invariant feature indices as latent variables and infers them via posterior inference.
result BIP and its variational approximation (VI-BIP) outperform existing methods in accuracy and scalability for invariant prediction.
Bayesian model for multi-environment prediction with latent variable changes.
problem Prediction in environments with changing latent variable distributions.
method Bayesian model with empirical Bayes prior and amortized variational algorithm.
result Method outperforms previous approaches in new environments.
Proposes method to learn state abstractions that generalize across environments.
problem Learning abstractions that generalize in block MDPs.
method Invariant causal prediction to learn model-irrelevant state abstractions (MISA).
result Proves high probability of outputting a state abstraction corresponding to causal feature set for return.
New methods improve prediction intervals across multiple environments.
problem Valid confidence intervals and sets in multi-environment prediction.
method Extended jackknife and split-conformal methods, with resizing for problem difficulty.
result Distribution-free coverage achieved in non-traditional data scenarios.
Estimator improves prediction with missing data in multi-environment settings.
problem Handling missing data in multi-environment settings for robust prediction.
method Derive an estimator from invariance objective under missing outcomes.
result The estimator achieves lower prediction error despite using a biased imputation model.
Novel AMP framework for multi-environment transfer learning.
problem Characterizing risk of Lasso-based transfer learning estimators.
method Multi-Environment Generalized Long AMP (multi-environment GLAMP) framework.
result Precise characterization of the risk of three Lasso-based transfer learning estimators.
Paper proposes EILLS for invariant linear regression across environments.
problem Estimating true parameter and important variable set in multi-environment settings.
method Environment invariant linear least squares (EILLS) objective function.
result EILLS estimator achieves variable selection consistency and efficient estimation.
Bayesian framework improves variance component estimation in MET data.
problem Inaccurate estimation of variance components in MET data.
method Proposes a Bayesian updating framework using historical data.
result Stabilizes variance component estimation and quantifies uncertainty.
ATLAS separates invariant and transferable latent factors across diverse environments.
problem Transfer learning and robust prediction in heterogeneous environments.
method ATLAS leverages invariance principle to disentangle latent factors and uses auxiliary labels for robust prediction.
result Near-oracle performance and robust transferable prediction in new environments.
We study causal inference in a multi-environment setting, in which the functional relations for producing the variables from their direct causes remain the same across environments, while the distribution of exogenous noises may vary. We introduce the idea of using the invariance of the functional relations of the vari…
CRL learns causal representations from unstructured data without supervision.
problem Learning causal models from high-dimensional, unstructured data.
method Combines ML and causality by learning representations in latent variables.
result Identifiability conditions for CRL in different settings.
The paper proposes a method to learn from both simulation and real-world data.
problem Training autonomous systems in simulation and applying them to real-world environments.
method Balancing samples from simulation and real-world data using a replay buffer.
result The method achieves better performance in real-world tasks compared to training only in simulation.
Free Random Projection enhances reinforcement learning by naturally incorporating hierarchical structure.
problem Improving reinforcement learning algorithms for better generalization and adaptability.
method Introduces Free Random Projection, a method that uses free probability theory to create random orthogonal matrices encoding hierarchical structure.
result Empirically shows consistent improvement in generalization over standard methods on multi-environment benchmarks.
Interpretable meta-learning for physical systems reduces computational costs and improves interpretability.
problem Challenges in learning from heterogeneous experimental data.
method Affine structure learning model for multi-environment generalization.
result Proves the model can identify physical parameters and demonstrates competitive performance.
New method learns chaotic dynamics from single noisy trajectory.
problem Chaos in complex systems is hard to model accurately with machine learning.
method Adversarial optimal transport objectives to learn summary statistics and emulator from single noisy data.
result Emulators trained with proposed objectives have significantly improved long-term statistical fidelity.
This research tackles sample complexity in causal graph recovery with temporal heterogeneity.
problem Recovering a unique causal graph from observational data with temporal heterogeneity.
method Integrates time-series dynamics and multi-environment heterogeneity to constrain the problem, enabling a rigorous analysis of statistical limits.
result Unified necessary identifiability conditions and explicit information-theoretic bounds quantify the sample complexity under different noise distributions.
The paper tackles policy learning in dynamic environments using causal methods.
problem Existing reinforcement learning algorithms assume static mechanisms, but real-world systems often have changing mechanisms.
method The paper introduces multi-environment contextual bandits and policy invariance to handle environmental shifts.
result An optimal invariant policy is guaranteed to generalize across environments under suitable assumptions.
New method identifies causal structure in exchangeable data.
problem Existing causal discovery methods struggle with i.i.d. data.
method Exchangeable data provides richer conditional independence structure.
result Exchangeable data allows for unique causal structure identification.
Bayesian approach learns causal concepts from diverse social surveys.
problem Inferring causal concepts from heterogeneous data with sparse changes.
method Hierarchical Bayesian model with sequential Monte Carlo sampling.
result Model infers meaningful causal concepts and plausible relations.
New method identifies causal variables from multi-node interventions, expanding on previous single-node approaches.
problem Inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations under multiple interventions.
method Exploits variance trace of ground truth causal variables and regularizes for sparsity.
result First identifiability result for causal representation learning with multiple node interventions.
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
This paper re-examines conformal e-prediction and its advantages over conformal prediction.
problem The relationship between conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction.
method Systematic re-examination of conformal prediction and conformal e-prediction from a modern perspective.
result Conformal e-prediction has advantages such as ease of designing conditional predictors and guaranteed validity of cross-predictors.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by conformal predictive systems may be useful, e.g., in decision making problems. Conf…
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.
New measures for prediction validity and consonant plausibility introduced.
problem Challenges in predicting future observations and quantifying prediction uncertainty.
method Introducing Type-2 validity and using consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
result Achieving both Type-1 and Type-2 validity through consonant plausibility measures and conformal prediction.
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.
FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.
problem Improving statistical inference with limited labeled data and heterogeneous prediction quality.
method Filtered Prediction-Powered Inference (FPPI) framework.
result FPPI achieves strictly improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing methods.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In this paper we develop split-conformal and cross-conformal predictive systems tha…
This paper studies trade-offs in private prediction methods.
problem Leakage of training data information in machine learning predictions.
method Private training and private prediction methods with trade-offs.
result Private training methods outperform private prediction methods in various settings.
Conformal prediction helps quantify uncertainty but its use by humans is unclear.
problem Uncertainty quantification in predictions for human decision making.
method Decision theoretic framework for evaluating predictive uncertainty.
result Conformal prediction sets and human decision making goals are in tension.
New tree splitting criteria improve probabilistic predictions.
problem Improving tree-based nonparametric predictive distributions.
method Using proper scoring rules for tree splitting criteria.
result Trees with new splitting criteria produce better predictive distributions.
Prediction is arguably one of the most basic functions of an intelligent system. In general, the problem of predicting events in the future or between two waypoints is exceedingly difficult. However, most phenomena naturally pass through relatively predictable bottlenecks---while we cannot predict the precise trajector…
New method improves predictive systems with better theoretical guarantees.
problem Constructing predictive systems with out-of-sample calibration guarantees.
method Residual Distribution Predictive Systems (RDPs) that nest conformal predictive systems and offer flexibility.
result Empirically, RDPs perform competitively with conformal predictive systems and can be implemented with various regression methods.
Paper introduces PCP for efficient, reliable predictive inference.
problem Developing reliable predictive inference methods for target variables.
method Probabilistic conformal prediction using conditional random samples.
result PCP provides sharper predictive sets compared to existing methods.
A framework for private prediction sets using conformal prediction and differential privacy.
problem Jointly addressing reliability and privacy in machine learning predictions.
method Split conformal prediction with privatized quantile subroutine.
result Private prediction sets can be generated from privately-trained models.
Variational Prediction simplifies Bayesian inference without test time costs.
problem Bayesian inference's computational costs and posterior predictive distribution marginalization.
method Variational Prediction learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution using a variational bound.
result Directly learns a variational approximation to the posterior predictive distribution without test time marginalization costs.