New method reduces Monte Carlo error in option pricing and Greeks estimation.
problem Reducing Monte Carlo error in option pricing and Greeks estimation.
method Denoised Monte Carlo technique for LSV models.
result Reduces Monte Carlo error by an order of magnitude.
Paper analyzes Gibbs and Langevin Monte Carlo for interpolation regime, showing generalization from low errors.
problem Analyzing Gibbs and Langevin Monte Carlo in overparameterized interpolation regime.
method Data-dependent bounds and stability under approximation with Langevin Monte Carlo.
result Generalization is signaled by small training errors in noisy regime, with bounds stable under approximation.
RQMC improves kernel-based learning by reducing deterministic error and offering computational advantages.
problem Improving kernel-based learning methods to reduce deterministic error and computational complexity.
method Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo (RQMC) methods applied to random feature approximations.
result RQMC methods improve deterministic approximation error bound from O P ( 1 / M ) O_P(1/\sqrt{M}) O P ( 1/ M ) to O ( 1 / M ) O(1/M) O ( 1/ M ) , matching QMC methods. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on ReLU networks is inefficient due to large local error.
problem Inefficiency of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on ReLU neural networks.
method Analysis of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with leapfrog integrator for Bayesian neural network inference.
result Leapfrog HMC for ReLU networks has a large local error rate of Ω ( ε ) Ω(ε) Ω ( ε ) , leading to inefficiency. This paper analyzes error bounds for biased SMC samplers in conditional sampling.
problem Analyzing error bounds for biased SMC samplers in conditional sampling.
method Develops a non-asymptotic error analysis for SMC samplers with biased mutation kernels.
result Derives the first non-asymptotic error bound for conditional sampling with score-based diffusion models.
RQMC improves QMC by providing practical error bounds for financial applications.
problem Lack of practical error estimates in QMC methods.
method Combines Sobol LDS with randomized scrambling methods.
result RQMC outperforms standard QMC in convergence rates and provides error bounds.
A fast Monte Carlo method for additive processes and option pricing.
problem Efficiently pricing path-dependent options with additive processes.
method Developed a fast Monte Carlo scheme for additive processes, analyzing and reducing numerical error sources.
result Shows significant reduction in error (1 bp or below) for pricing path-dependent options.
The paper provides mean-square error bounds for stochastic approximation algorithms.
problem Error bounds for recursive equations with Markovian disturbances.
method Analysis of mean-square error for stochastic approximation algorithms.
result Mean-square error achieves the optimal rate of O ( 1 / n ) O(1/n) O ( 1/ n ) under certain conditions. DALMC provides non-asymptotic error bounds for generative models.
problem Efficiently generating samples from complex data distributions.
method Analysis of diffusion paths and Langevin Monte Carlo.
result Theoretical guarantees for a class of generative models.
Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing with neural networks
problem Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing
method Mixture Density Network
result Out-of-sample CDF error of 1.4 i m e s 10 − 4 1.4 imes 10^{-4} 1.4 im es 1 0 − 4 The paper analyzes error propagation in dynamic programming for stochastic control and option pricing.
problem Error propagation in dynamic programming for stochastic control and option pricing.
method Formulated a general dynamic programming framework, used RKHSs for nonparametric regression, and Monte Carlo subsampling for estimating continuation value.
result Proposed a rigorous error decomposition and control mechanism for error propagation in dynamic programming.
LMC improves sampling from complex distributions using quasi-random sequences.
problem Sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions with high accuracy.
method Using completely uniformly distributed (CUD) sequences in Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) to generate Gaussian perturbations.
result LMC with low-discrepancy CUD sequences achieves smaller estimation error than standard LMC.
This paper introduces a set of algorithms for Monte-Carlo Bayesian reinforcement learning. Firstly, Monte-Carlo estimation of upper bounds on the Bayes-optimal value function is employed to construct an optimistic policy. Secondly, gradient-based algorithms for approximate upper and lower bounds are introduced. Finally…
Improved Least-Squares Monte Carlo with finite-difference ansatz.
problem Improving accuracy and stability in option pricing.
method Constructing an ansatz using finite-difference solution for conditional expected continuation payoffs.
result Reduces mean squared error and final pricing error.
Estimates for neural network risk nearly match Monte Carlo error rates.
problem Understanding the performance of two-layer neural networks.
method Established a priori estimates for the population risk of two-layer neural networks.
result The new estimates are nearly optimal and depend only on function norms, not model parameters.
New sampling algorithms for complex distributions without log-concavity.
problem Efficient sampling from complex, high-dimensional distributions.
method Randomized splitting Langevin Monte Carlo (RSLMC) algorithm.
result Uniform-in-time error bounds for RSLMC and RLMC algorithms.
The paper introduces validated variational inference with practical error bounds.
problem Lack of accurate post-hoc measures for variational inference.
method The paper provides rigorous bounds on variational inference error.
result The bounds are widely applicable and computationally efficient.
SLMC improves sampling efficiency for high-dimensional distributions.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional distributions is computationally challenging.
method SLMC projects Langevin updates onto subsampled eigenblocks of a time-varying preconditioner.
result SLMC offers superior adaptability and computational efficiency compared to traditional methods.
New algorithm for Lévy process extrema with geometrically convergent error.
problem Simulating the extrema of Lévy processes with high accuracy.
method Developed a novel approximate simulation algorithm for Lévy process extrema.
result Error decays geometrically in L p L^p L p as a function of computational cost. Study examines how measurement errors impact clustering algorithms.
problem Impact of measurement errors on clustering algorithms.
method Monte Carlo study of two clustering algorithms: GMM with merging and DBSCAN.
result Systematic measurement errors are more problematic for clustering than random errors.
This study compares MC and QMC methods for likelihood functions.
problem Approximating the normalizing constant of posterior distributions and marginal likelihoods.
method Characterizes the integration error of MC and QMC methods for likelihood functions.
result QMC outperforms MC under certain conditions, especially in high dimensions.
Combines normalizing flows and quasi-Monte Carlo for improved numerical integration.
problem Improving the efficiency of numerical integration methods.
method Uses normalizing flows to approximate distributions and quasi-Monte Carlo for sampling.
result Demonstrates an estimator with significantly lower variance.
Corrects errors in ILA for Bayesian inference in LGMs.
problem Error in ILA for non-Gaussian likelihoods in LGMs.
method Importance sampling scheme to correct ILA errors.
result Corrected posterior converges to the true posterior with increased samples.
This paper extends the convergence analysis of Langevin Monte Carlo beyond Poincaré inequalities.
problem Analyzing convergence of Langevin Monte Carlo under various functional inequalities.
method Establishing upper and lower bounds for Langevin diffusions and LMC under weak Poincaré inequalities.
result Explicitly quantifies the effect of the initializer on the performance of LMC algorithm.
A new tamed stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm for superlinearly growing stochastic gradients.
problem Sampling and stochastic optimization problems with superlinearly growing stochastic gradients.
method Tamed Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (tSGHMC) algorithm.
result Established a non-asymptotic error bound in Wasserstein-2 distance with a convergence rate of 1 / 4 1/4 1/4 . The paper improves probabilistic herding methods using Gibbs distributions.
problem Improving integration accuracy over Monte Carlo quadrature in infinite-dimensional RKHS.
method Developed a Gibbs distribution over quadrature nodes to minimize MMD.
result The Gibbs distribution outperforms i.i.d. Monte Carlo in integration accuracy.
The standard Kernel Quadrature method for numerical integration with random point sets (also called Bayesian Monte Carlo) is known to converge in root mean square error at a rate determined by the ratio s / d s/d s / d , where s s s and d d d encode the smoothness and dimension of the integrand. However, an empirical investigation re…
The paper improves Monte Carlo methods for optimization problems.
problem Efficiently solving optimization problems with biased Monte Carlo estimators.
method Introduces Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) within Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
result Establishes uniform convergence and sample complexity for MLMC in SAA.
HAVER improves error bounds for estimating the largest mean in machine learning tasks.
problem Estimating the largest mean among multiple distributions.
method Proposes HAVER, a novel algorithm for maximum mean estimation.
result HAVER achieves better error bounds than the oracle in many cases.
New method uses Coulomb gases for Monte Carlo integration with reduced errors.
problem Reducing integration errors in numerical algorithms.
method Using Gibbs measures with a large deviations approach.
result Preserves large deviation principle for improved integration.
Algorithm reduces historical expected shortfall computation by focusing on worst-case scenarios.
problem Computing the historical expected shortfall efficiently and accurately.
method Multi-step algorithm using Monte Carlo simulations to identify and reduce the number of worst-case scenarios.
result Non-asymptotic bounds for the L p-error of the expected shortfall estimator are derived.
Bayesian inference typically requires the computation of an approximation to the posterior distribution. An important requirement for an approximate Bayesian inference algorithm is to output high-accuracy posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. Classical Monte Carlo methods, particularly Markov Chain Monte Carlo, rem…
Deep learning accelerates Monte Carlo SDE simulations with large time steps.
problem Accurate simulation of SDEs with large time steps.
method Polynomial chaos expansion with neural network learned stochastic collocation points.
result Data-driven scheme achieves strong convergence in Monte Carlo simulations.
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but in their conventional form rely on having an accurate approximation of f, a pri…
Machine learning improves American option pricing accuracy.
problem Complexities of American options and traditional models' limitations.
method Monte Carlo simulations combined with machine learning algorithms (Least Square Method, LSTM, GRU).
result GRU model outperforms LSTM in predicting bid prices, enhancing accuracy and stability.
Improves QMC for complex distributions using transport maps.
problem Challenges in applying QMC to general target distributions.
method Train a transport map to approximate target distributions, ensuring RQMC achieves superior error rates.
result Transport QMC achieves faster convergence rates than standard Monte Carlo under mild conditions.
Fast simulates Volterra processes using RFF, focusing on S-fBM.
problem Efficiently simulate Volterra processes for fractional Brownian motion.
method Random Fourier Features (RFF) approximation of kernel, spectral representation, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling.
result Quantitative guarantees for RFF approximation, competitive in terms of efficiency and error.
A new scheme for FBSDEs simplifies computation without Monte Carlo.
problem Numerical solution for decoupled FBSDEs with reduced complexity.
method Recursive marginal quantization for fully quantization-based scheme.
result Effective numerical procedure for financial applications.
Novel method for nonlinear data assimilation using Langevin sampling.
problem Nonlinear data assimilation challenges in Bayesian filtering.
method Score-based sequential Langevin sampling (SSLS) with dynamic models and annealing.
result Asymptotic stability and error bounds for local posterior sampling.
New algorithms improve Langevin Monte Carlo efficiency.
problem High computational cost of classical Langevin Monte Carlo.
method Integrates ensemble feature into LMC, constraining gradient approximations.
result Constrained Ensemble Langevin Monte Carlo reduces gradient computation.
Practitioners of Bayesian statistics have long depended on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to obtain samples from intractable posterior distributions. Unfortunately, MCMC algorithms are typically serial, and do not scale to the large datasets typical of modern machine learning. The recently proposed consensus Monte Car…
This study compares MC and QMC methods for derivative pricing, showing QMC's superior convergence rates.
problem Improving derivative pricing accuracy and efficiency in high-dimensional settings.
method Compared Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo techniques, focusing on convergence rates and low-discrepancy sequences.
result Quasi-Monte Carlo methods achieve superior convergence rates and reduce root mean square error in derivative pricing.
Engression uses neural networks to learn conditional distributions, analyzing its error components.
problem Analyzing the error in neural-network-based engression.
method Engression decomposes excess risk into approximation, stochastic, and Monte Carlo errors.
result Established convergence rates under compositional smoothness assumptions.
Method generates random numbers from sensor noise, improving accuracy and speed.
problem Improving accuracy and speed of Monte Carlo integration.
method Sampling a physical process in a controlled environment.
result Reduces error of Monte Carlo integration by 10^68 times while doubling speed.
A new Monte Carlo sampling method derived from reverse diffusion.
problem Sampling from complex distributions, especially multi-modal ones.
method Transforming score matching into mean estimation; estimating means of regularized posterior distributions.
result rdMC can approximate sampling with any desired accuracy and is significantly faster than MCMC for complex distributions.
New method speeds up option pricing for rough Bergomi model.
problem Time-consuming option pricing under rough Bergomi model.
method Hierarchical adaptive sparse grids and quasi Monte Carlo.
result Substantial computational gains over standard Monte Carlo.
We apply multilevel Monte Carlo for option pricing problems using exponential Lévy models with a uniform timestep discretisation to monitor the running maximum required for lookback and barrier options. The numerical results demonstrate the computational efficiency of this approach. We derive estimates of the convergen…
Efficient method for high-dimensional American option pricing and hedging.
problem High-dimensional American option pricing and hedging.
method Gradient-enhanced sparse Hermite polynomial expansions combined with least squares Monte Carlo.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art methods in high dimensions with comparable computational cost.