A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new differentiable resampling method for Monte Carlo simulations.
A new variational method for SSMs improves inference efficiency.
New framework improves robust inference in HMMs under model misspecification.
This paper presents a fast Bayesian filtering technique for state estimation.
Paper compares semi-supervised training for differentiable particle filters.
Compressed Monte Carlo improves efficiency in Bayesian inference.
Sequential Monte Carlo techniques are useful for state estimation in non-linear, non-Gaussian dynamic models. These methods allow us to approximate the joint posterior distribution using sequential importance sampling. In this framework, the dimension of the target distribution grows with each time step, thus it is nec…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without good proposal distributions struggle in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology that generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approxi…
New MCFOs improve learning generative models and time series inference.
Option valuation problems are often solved using standard Monte Carlo (MC) methods. These techniques can often be enhanced using several strategies especially when one discretizes the dynamics of the underlying asset, of which we assume follows a diffusion process. We consider the combination of two methodologies in th…
Improved particle filters for estimating model parameters using differentiable resampling.
Improved state estimation in high-dimensional models using Zig-Zag Sampler.
Novel approach to Bayesian experimental design for non-exchangeable data.
We consider the combined use of resampling and partial rejection control in sequential Monte Carlo methods, also known as particle filters. While the variance reducing properties of rejection control are known, there has not been (to the best of our knowledge) any work on unbiased estimation of the marginal likelihood …
New AD methods improve likelihood estimation for partially observed systems.
Recently, the Frank-Wolfe optimization algorithm was suggested as a procedure to obtain adaptive quadrature rules for integrals of functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with a potentially faster rate of convergence than Monte Carlo integration (and "kernel herding" was shown to be a special case of thi…
EnFF uses flows to speed up DA in high dimensions.
Nonlinear state-space models are powerful tools to describe dynamical structures in complex time series. In a streaming setting where data are processed one sample at a time, simultaneous inference of the state and its nonlinear dynamics has posed significant challenges in practice. We develop a novel online learning f…
The decentralized particle filter (DPF) was proposed recently to increase the level of parallelism of particle filtering. Given a decomposition of the state space into two nested sets of variables, the DPF uses a particle filter to sample the first set and then conditions on this sample to generate a set of samples for…
We examine a general multi-factor model for commodity spot prices and futures valuation. We extend the multi-factor long-short model in Schwartz and Smith (2000) and Yan (2002) in two important aspects: firstly we allow for both the long and short term dynamic factors to be mean reverting incorporating stochastic volat…
Two new deterministic offspring selection methods reduce statistical distance in SMC and pMCMC.
New wavelet frames constructed from reproducing kernels for continuous and discrete domains.
The paper studies how to improve language model inference using particle filtering.
EnSF improves accuracy in tracking high-dimensional nonlinear systems.
Develops an inverse particle filter for cognitive systems.
A Kalman filter reduces valuation risk in business valuation models.
A new algorithm learns model regimes and parameters efficiently.
A body of recent work has focused on constructing a variational family of filtered distributions using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Inspired by this work, we introduce Particle Smoothing Variational Objectives (SVO), a novel backward simulation technique and smoothed approximate posterior defined through a subsampling…
One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more than two decades ago), provide numerical solutions to the nonlinear state estima…
We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm i…
LatentTrack generates model parameters online for nonstationary data.
Many kinds of data can be represented as a network or graph. It is crucial to infer the latent structure underlying such a network and to predict unobserved links in the network. Mixed Membership Stochastic Blockmodel (MMSB) is a promising model for network data. Latent variables and unknown parameters in MMSB have bee…
DAIS improves AIS by resampling, avoiding gradient issues.
Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems. Some problems of this type that were previously intractable can now be solved on …
Bayesian inference for biochemical reaction networks using jump-diffusion approximations.
A new particle filter uses diffusion models to improve state estimation from noisy data.
This paper addresses the problem of filtering with a state-space model. Standard approaches for filtering assume that a probabilistic model for observations (i.e. the observation model) is given explicitly or at least parametrically. We consider a setting where this assumption is not satisfied; we assume that the knowl…
Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted samples. In th…
Bayesian methods improve tracking multiple objects through dynamic dependencies.
Decision tree learning is a popular approach for classification and regression in machine learning and statistics, and Bayesian formulations---which introduce a prior distribution over decision trees, and formulate learning as posterior inference given data---have been shown to produce competitive performance. Unlike c…
This paper presents a new approach for filter design based on stochastic distances and tests between distributions. A window is defined around each pixel, overlapping samples are compared and only those which pass a goodness-of-fit test are used to compute the filtered value. The technique is applied to intensity SAR d…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods, performance is critically dependent on the proposal distribution: a bad proposal c…
The use of sequential Monte Carlo within simulation for path-dependent option pricing is proposed and evaluated. Recently, it was shown that explicit solutions and importance sampling are valuable for efficient simulation of spot price and volatility, especially for purposes of path-dependent option pricing. The result…
SIXO improves inference by learning smoothing distributions from all observations.
We consider the nonlinear Kalman filtering problem using Kullback-Leibler (KL) and -divergence measures as optimization criteria. Unlike linear Kalman filters, nonlinear Kalman filters do not have closed form Gaussian posteriors because of a lack of conjugacy due to the nonlinearity in the likelihood. In this paper …
Enhances interpolation paths in latent space using particle filters.
We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo (NSMC), a methodology to sample from sequences of probability distributions, even where the random variables are high-dimensional. NSMC generalises the SMC framework by requiring only approximate, properly weighted, samples from the SMC proposal distribution, while still resulti…
New algorithms improve MCMC efficiency for complex distributions.