A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is used for Bayesian analysis of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. The HMC algorithm is one of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and it updates all parameters at once. We demonstrate that how the HMC reproduces the GARCH paramete…
Recommender systems play an essential role in the modern business world. They recommend favorable items like books, movies, and search queries to users based on their past preferences. Applying similar ideas and techniques to Monte Carlo simulations of physical systems boosts their efficiency without sacrificing accura…
We propose kernel sequential Monte Carlo (KSMC), a framework for sampling from static target densities. KSMC is a family of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that are based on building emulator models of the current particle system in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We here focus on modelling nonlinear covariance s…
Data assimilation for subsurface flow using latent diffusion models shows that ensemble Kalman methods may overestimate posterior uncertainty, while Monte Carlo sampling is more reliable.
problem Data assimilation for subsurface flow
method Ensemble Kalman smoother and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling
result Monte Carlo sampling is more reliable than ensemble Kalman methods
We apply the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm to the financial time sires analysis of the stochastic volatility (SV) model for the first time. The HMC algorithm is used for the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) update of volatility variables of the SV model in the Bayesian inference. We compute parameters of the SV mod…
Stochastic Gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) is a momentum version of stochastic gradient descent with properly injected Gaussian noise to find a global minimum. In this paper, non-asymptotic convergence analysis of SGHMC is given in the context of non-convex optimization, where subsampling techniques are used o…
Despite their exceptional flexibility and popularity, the Monte Carlo methods often suffer from slow mixing times for challenging statistical physics problems. We present a general strategy to overcome this difficulty by adopting ideas and techniques from the machine learning community. We fit the unnormalized probabil…
We show how to speed up Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for Bayesian inference in large data problems by data subsampling. SMC sequentially updates a cloud of particles through a sequence of distributions, beginning with a distribution that is easy to sample from such as the prior and ending with the posterior distributio…
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we compute parameters of the SV model by using the artificial financial data and compare …
New EP variants improve inference stability and efficiency.
problem Inference stability and efficiency issues in EP.
method Motivated by natural-gradient optimization, new EP variants are introduced that are robust to Monte Carlo noise and efficient with single samples.
result Improved stability and efficiency in inference tasks.
We present a method for performing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo that largely eliminates sample rejection for typical hyperparameters. In situations that would normally lead to rejection, instead a longer trajectory is computed until a new state is reached that can be accepted. This is achieved using Markov chain transitions…
A framework for navigating environments with spatially correlated obstacles and uncertain blockage status.
problem Navigation in environments with spatially correlated obstacles of uncertain blockage status.
method Modeling spatial correlation with Gaussian Random Field, developing Bayesian belief updates, proposing a two-stage learning framework with offline and online phases.
result Consistent performance gains over baselines in environments with adversarial interruptions or clustered natural hazards.
In this paper, we present an online reinforcement learning algorithm, called Renewal Monte Carlo (RMC), for infinite horizon Markov decision processes with a designated start state. RMC is a Monte Carlo algorithm and retains the advantages of Monte Carlo methods including low bias, simplicity, and ease of implementatio…