Ensembles of randomized decision trees, usually referred to as random forests, are widely used for classification and regression tasks in machine learning and statistics. Random forests achieve competitive predictive performance and are computationally efficient to train and test, making them excellent candidates for r…
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48 results for “Mondrian prediction”
Kandinsky conformal prediction expands conditional coverage guarantees.
problem Disparities in coverage guarantees across different subpopulations.
method Flexible handling of overlapping and fractional group memberships.
result Minimax-optimal high-probability conditional coverage bound.
Many real-world regression problems demand a measure of the uncertainty associated with each prediction. Standard decision forests deliver efficient state-of-the-art predictive performance, but high-quality uncertainty estimates are lacking. Gaussian processes (GPs) deliver uncertainty estimates, but scaling GPs to lar…
The Mondrian Kernelstat.ML
We introduce the Mondrian kernel, a fast random feature approximation to the Laplace kernel. It is suitable for both batch and online learning, and admits a fast kernel-width-selection procedure as the random features can be re-used efficiently for all kernel widths. The features are constructed by sampling trees via a…
Introduced by Breiman, Random Forests are widely used classification and regression algorithms. While being initially designed as batch algorithms, several variants have been proposed to handle online learning. One particular instance of such forests is the \emph{Mondrian Forest}, whose trees are built using the so-cal…
Mondrian random forests improve statistical inference for regression.
problem Improving statistical inference for regression functions.
method Combining bias and variance characterizations with debiasing and variance estimation.
result Valid statistical inference methods for unknown regression functions with error bounds.
This report is concerned with the Mondrian process and its applications in machine learning. The Mondrian process is a guillotine-partition-valued stochastic process that possesses an elegant self-consistency property. The first part of the report uses simple concepts from applied probability to define the Mondrian pro…
TrIM improves gradient-based dimension reduction and regression.
problem Efficiently identifying relevant feature subspace for high-dimensional regression.
method Introduced TrIM forest, an iterative approach using Mondrian forest and EGOP estimate.
result Consistency guarantees and convergence rates for EGOP matrix and random forest estimator.
The stable under iterated tessellation (STIT) process is a stochastic process that produces a recursive partition of space with cut directions drawn independently from a distribution over the sphere. The case of random axis-aligned cuts is known as the Mondrian process. Random forests and Laplace kernel approximations …
iMondrian forest combines isolation forest and Mondrian forest for better anomaly detection.
problem Anomaly detection in batch and online settings.
method Hybrid of isolation forest and Mondrian forest, using depth in Mondrian forest structure.
result iMondrian forest outperforms existing methods in batch and online settings.
Proposes PEMI for online selective conformal prediction with asymmetric rules.
problem Challenges of handling asymmetric selection mechanisms in online selective conformal prediction.
method PEMI: permutation-based framework for selective conformal prediction with arbitrary asymmetric selection rules.
result Achieves exact selection-conditional coverage for any asymmetric selection mechanism and any prediction model.
We establish the consistency of an algorithm of Mondrian Forests, a randomized classification algorithm that can be implemented online. First, we amend the original Mondrian Forest algorithm, that considers a fixed lifetime parameter. Indeed, the fact that this parameter is fixed hinders the statistical consistency of …
Random Forests (RF) is one of the algorithms of choice in many supervised learning applications, be it classification or regression. The appeal of such tree-ensemble methods comes from a combination of several characteristics: a remarkable accuracy in a variety of tasks, a small number of parameters to tune, robustness…
Paper uses conformal prediction for solar power forecasting in electricity markets.
problem Enhancing participation in electricity markets through accurate day-ahead PV power predictions.
method Combines machine learning for point predictions and conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification.
result CP with k-nearest neighbors and Mondrian binning outperforms linear quantile regressors in predicting PV power.
Bayesian nonparametric method partitions shapes using curves.
problem Capturing complex shapes in multi-dimensional data.
method Proposes a novel spline partitioning approach using curves.
result Demonstrates improved shape modeling compared to existing methods.
The Mondrian process represents an elegant and powerful approach for space partition modelling. However, as it restricts the partitions to be axis-aligned, its modelling flexibility is limited. In this work, we propose a self-consistent Binary Space Partitioning (BSP)-Tree process to generalize the Mondrian process. Th…
New tree and forest methods use oblique splits for better risk bounds.
problem Improving risk bounds for regression algorithms.
method Randomized decision trees and forests with oblique splits.
result Oblique splits lead to better risk bounds for multi-index models.
Random Tessellation Forestsstat.ML
Space partitioning methods such as random forests and the Mondrian process are powerful machine learning methods for multi-dimensional and relational data, and are based on recursively cutting a domain. The flexibility of these methods is often limited by the requirement that the cuts be axis aligned. The Ostomachion p…
Analysis of flow cytometry data is an essential tool for clinical diagnosis of hematological and immunological conditions. Current clinical workflows rely on a manual process called gating to classify cells into their canonical types. This dependence on human annotation limits the rate, reproducibility, and complexity …
This paper improves prediction intervals for heteroskedastic regression.
problem Adaptive prediction intervals for heteroskedastic regression.
method Normalized and Mondrian conformal prediction methods.
result Conditional validity of chosen conformal predictors related to data-generating assumptions.
The paper addresses selection bias in conformal prediction for focal units.
problem Selection bias in marginally valid conformal prediction intervals for focal units.
method A general framework for constructing selection-conditional coverage prediction sets.
result Efficient methods for various selection rules with exact finite-sample coverage.
A new method for detecting anomalies in large, high-dimensional data streams using probabilistic forest models.
problem Challenges in detecting anomalies in large, high-dimensional data.
method Probabilistic Mondrian Pólya Forests for summarizing data and estimating underlying probability density.
result State-of-the-art performance with interpretable anomaly scores.
New random forest variants achieve optimal performance in high dimensions.
problem Handling dependencies between features in high-dimensional data.
method Using oblique splits in random forests with general split directions.
result Achieved minimax optimal convergence rates in arbitrary dimension.
RR-GNN improves GNN prediction intervals by accounting for graph heteroscedasticity and structural biases.
problem Uncertainty quantification in GNNs for high-stakes domains.
method Graph-Structured Mondrian CP, Residual-Adaptive Nonconformity Scores, Cross-Training Protocol.
result Improved efficiency and no loss of coverage compared to CP baselines.
CPP solves chance constrained optimization problems with a framework that combines samples and quantile lemma.
problem Chance constrained optimization problems with constraints on random variables.
method CPP framework using samples and quantile lemma to transform into deterministic problem.
result CPP provides a posteriori guarantees on constraint satisfaction and can handle different types of chance constraints.
Conformal prediction fails to cover minority classes in imbalanced datasets, but a class-conditional fix improves coverage.
problem Conformal prediction fails to cover minority classes in imbalanced datasets, leading to poor performance on rare labels.
method Class-conditional conformal prediction to improve coverage of minority classes.
result Class-conditional conformal prediction restores minority coverage to target with a modest increase in prediction-set size.
Machine-learned anomaly detection in new-physics searches needs calibration and look-elsewhere correction
problem Machine-learned anomaly detection in new-physics searches
method Conformal prediction layer
result Calibrated significance with distribution-free guarantees
The Binary Space Partitioning~(BSP)-Tree process is proposed to produce flexible 2-D partition structures which are originally used as a Bayesian nonparametric prior for relational modelling. It can hardly be applied to other learning tasks such as regression trees because extending the BSP-Tree process to a higher dim…
Fuzzy prediction sets generalize binary predictions to include elements at varying confidence levels.
problem Binary prediction sets are limited; fuzzy prediction sets offer richer guarantees.
method Generalize prediction sets to fuzzy sets, showing they are e-values with merging properties.
result Optimal e-values lead to optimal fuzzy prediction sets, including optimal conformal prediction.
Self-calibrating conformal prediction improves interval efficiency and offers a practical alternative.
problem Improving the reliability and uncertainty quantification of machine learning predictions.
method Combines Venn-Abers calibration and conformal prediction for binary and regression problems.
result Improves interval efficiency through model calibration and offers practical alternatives.
Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
The paper emphasizes the importance of joint predictions over marginal predictions for decision-making.
problem The need for accurate joint predictions in decision-making problems.
method The paper analyzes combinatorial decision problems, sequential predictions, and multi-armed bandits, introducing an approximate Thompson sampling algorithm and new regret bounds.
result Accurate joint predictions are essential for good performance in decision-making problems.
Behavior modification improves prediction accuracy by nudging user behavior.
problem Improving prediction accuracy using behavior modification techniques.
method Combining prediction and behavior modification with reinforcement learning algorithms.
result Behavior modification can make predictions more certain but may not generalize.
Conformal predictive systems are a recent modification of conformal predictors that output, in regression problems, probability distributions for labels of test observations rather than set predictions. The extra information provided by conformal predictive systems may be useful, e.g., in decision making problems. Conf…
Predictions can shape outcomes, study helps predict these effects.
problem Understanding how predictions influence real-world outcomes.
method Causal identifiability analysis of prediction-covariate-outcome relationships.
result Standard supervised learning can identify transferable relationships from predictions.
Prediction problems often admit competing models that perform almost equally well. This effect challenges key assumptions in machine learning when competing models assign conflicting predictions. In this paper, we define predictive multiplicity as the ability of a prediction problem to admit competing models with confl…
Proposes feature conformal prediction for broader application in semantic feature spaces.
problem Establishing valid prediction intervals in semantic feature spaces.
method Extends conformal prediction to semantic feature spaces using deep representation learning.
result Feature conformal prediction outperforms regular conformal prediction under mild assumptions.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) commonly occurs in hospitalized patients and can lead to serious medical complications. In order to optimally predict AKI before it develops at any time during a hospital stay, we present a novel framework in which AKI is continually predicted automatically from EHR data over the entire hospit…
AutoCP automates the construction of accurate prediction intervals.
problem Creating valid and accurate prediction intervals for machine learning models.
method AutoML framework that optimizes prediction interval length for better accuracy and less conservatism.
result AutoCP significantly outperforms benchmark algorithms in constructing accurate prediction intervals.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
ICP improves prediction intervals for continuous outcomes at lower computational cost.
problem Systematic bias in point predictions that undermines their use in decision-making.
method Develops Isotonic Conformal Prediction (ICP) framework to decouple calibration from prediction-set construction.
result SICP and TICP procedures match SC-CP coverage at lower computational cost.
Optimizes predictions for specific tasks using parametrized decision analysis.
problem Optimizing predictions for specific decision tasks of interest.
method Designs a class of parametrized actions for Bayesian decision analysis.
result Derives efficient and interpretable solutions for various action parametrizations and loss functions.
This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have imp…
RFpredInterval: An R Package for Prediction Intervals with Random Forests and Boosted Forestsstat.ML
RFpredInterval package builds prediction intervals for random forests and boosted forests.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in random forest and boosted forest point predictions.
method 16 methods to build prediction intervals with random forests and boosted forests.
result The proposed method outperforms existing methods in building prediction intervals.
FPPI selectively uses predictions to improve inference efficiency.
problem Improving statistical inference with limited labeled data and heterogeneous prediction quality.
method Filtered Prediction-Powered Inference (FPPI) framework.
result FPPI achieves strictly improved asymptotic efficiency compared to existing methods.
COP improves online conformal prediction by incorporating data patterns, leading to tighter prediction sets.
problem Overly conservative prediction sets in online conformal prediction methods when data distribution shifts.
method Conformal Optimistic Prediction (COP) incorporating estimated cumulative distribution function of non-conformity scores.
result COP produces tighter prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, outperforming other methods.
Most existing examples of full conformal predictive systems, split-conformal predictive systems, and cross-conformal predictive systems impose severe restrictions on the adaptation of predictive distributions to the test object at hand. In this paper we develop split-conformal and cross-conformal predictive systems tha…
This paper studies trade-offs in private prediction methods.
problem Leakage of training data information in machine learning predictions.
method Private training and private prediction methods with trade-offs.
result Private training methods outperform private prediction methods in various settings.