In this paper, we derive a Bayesian model order selection rule by using the exponentially embedded family method, termed Bayesian EEF. Unlike many other Bayesian model selection methods, the Bayesian EEF can use vague proper priors and improper noninformative priors to be objective in the elicitation of parameter prior…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,694 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “Model order selection”
One of the longstanding open problems in spectral graph clustering (SGC) is the so-called model order selection problem: automated selection of the correct number of clusters. This is equivalent to the problem of finding the number of connected components or communities in an undirected graph. We propose automated mode…
MIC improves VAR order selection accuracy.
problem Order selection in VAR models for accurate forecasting.
method MIC based on expected squared error loss.
result MIC consistently estimates true VAR order.
New method finds significant high-order interactions efficiently.
problem Finding statistically significant high-order interactions in high-dimensional data.
method Extends selective inference to high-order interaction models with pruning strategy.
result Demonstrated efficient and powerful method for high-order interactions.
Paper optimizes portfolio selection with ICX order constraints.
problem Minimizing portfolio variance with ICX order constraints.
method Optimal and efficient portfolios are derived in closed form.
result Closed-form solutions for optimal and efficient portfolios.
One of the longstanding problems in spectral graph clustering (SGC) is the so-called model order selection problem: automated selection of the correct number of clusters. This is equivalent to the problem of finding the number of connected components or communities in an undirected graph. In this paper, we propose AMOS…
We introduce a computationally effective algorithm for a linear model selection consisting of three steps: screening--ordering--selection (SOS). Screening of predictors is based on the thresholded Lasso that is l_1 penalized least squares. The screened predictors are then fitted using least squares (LS) and ordered wit…
A new method sorts models to find the best one with minimal risk.
problem Finding the best model with minimal risk among nested models.
method Nested Empirical Risk (NER) and Sorted NER (S-NER) methods.
result The S-NER method selects the true model order and the most parsimonious model.
EASE optimizes exemplar selection for ICL in LLMs efficiently.
problem Efficiently selecting exemplars for in-context learning (ICL) in large language models (LLMs).
method EASE uses neural bandit algorithms to optimize exemplar sets, considering both exemplar ordering and instruction.
result EASE outperforms existing methods in finding optimal exemplar sets for all test queries.
Information theoretic criteria (ITC) have been widely adopted in engineering and statistics for selecting, among an ordered set of candidate models, the one that better fits the observed sample data. The selected model minimizes a penalized likelihood metric, where the penalty is determined by the criterion adopted. Wh…
Finding statistically significant high-order interaction features in predictive modeling is important but challenging task. The difficulty lies in the fact that, for a recent applications with high-dimensional covariates, the number of possible high-order interaction features would be extremely large. Identifying stati…
In neuroimaging data analysis, Gaussian graphical models are often used to model statistical dependencies across spatially remote brain regions known as functional connectivity. Typically, data is collected across a cohort of subjects and the scientific objectives consist of estimating population and subject-specific g…
H-GAT improves stock selection by capturing complex higher-order stock relations and integrating both technical and fundamental analysis.
problem Stock selection difficulty and lack of comprehensive analysis.
method Higher-order Graph Attention Network (H-GAT) that incorporates both technical and fundamental analysis.
result H-GAT outperforms existing methods in stock selection metrics.
New regularization scheme for FMs improves feature interaction selection.
problem Feature selection in FMs leads to loss of feature interactions.
method Proposes a new regularization scheme for FMs with upper bound of regularizer.
result Improves feature interaction selection without restricting sparsity patterns.
AI traders learn to exploit meta-orders from slower traders, increasing their profits.
problem Adverse selection of medium-frequency traders by high-frequency AI agents.
method Reinforcement learning in a Hawkes LOB model, with impulse control and PPO.
result AI agents can learn to capitalize on meta-orders, increasing their profits.
Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by incorporating regularized approaches, such as the lasso in VAR estimation. Traditional a…
Cost-effective feature selection improves network model choice.
problem Selecting informative features from noisy candidates in network models.
method Adapted feature selection methods to account for feature costs and used pilot simulations.
result Reduced computational cost by two orders of magnitude without sacrificing model accuracy.
Bayesian BIC for multi-trial data improves VAR model order selection.
problem Optimal VAR model order selection for multi-trial event-based data.
method Derive and apply Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) for multi-trial ensemble data.
result Multi-trial BIC successfully recovers real model order and estimates small model order.
Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) yields a linear, approximate model of a system's dynamics that is built from data. We seek to reduce the order of this model by identifying a reduced set of modes that best fit the output. We adopt a model selection algorithm from statistics and machine learning known as Least Angle Reg…
Balances the regret of different algorithms in bandit and RL problems.
problem Model selection in bandit and reinforcement learning.
method Estimates and balances the empirical regrets of algorithms.
result Achieves near-optimal regret compared to the optimal base algorithm.
New analysis reveals gaps in selective classifiers, guiding improvements.
problem Improving selective classifiers to match perfect-ordering oracle performance.
method Formalized selective classification gap, decomposed into five sources of looseness.
result Monotone post-hoc calibration has limited impact on closing the gap.
The paper explores how smaller data sets can lead to better model selection decisions.
problem Model selection in small data regimes.
method Empirical study of generalization performance with varying training set sizes.
result Training on smaller subsets of data can lead to more reliable model selection decisions.
We develop a robust convex algorithm to select the regularization parameter in model selection. In practice this would be automated in order to save practitioners time from having to tune it manually. In particular, we implement and test the convex method for -fold cross validation on ridge regression, although the …
Data selection methods, such as active learning and core-set selection, are useful tools for machine learning on large datasets. However, they can be prohibitively expensive to apply in deep learning because they depend on feature representations that need to be learned. In this work, we show that we can greatly improv…
Learning Selectively Conditioned Forest Structures with Applications to DBNs and Classificationcs.LG
Dealing with uncertainty in Bayesian Network structures using maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation or Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is often intractable due to the superexponential number of possible directed, acyclic graphs. When the prior is decomposable, two classes of graphs where efficient learning can take plac…
Given a set of assets and an investment capital, the classical portfolio selection problem consists in determining the amount of capital to be invested in each asset in order to build the most profitable portfolio. The portfolio optimization problem is naturally modeled as a mean-risk bi-criteria optimization problem w…
In order to cluster or partition data, we often use Expectation-and-Maximization (EM) or Variational approximation with a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), which is a parametric probability density function represented as a weighted sum of Gaussian component densities. However, model selection to find underlying …
Counterfactual Cross-Validation: Stable Model Selection Procedure for Causal Inference Modelsstat.ML
We study the model selection problem in conditional average treatment effect (CATE) prediction. Unlike previous works on this topic, we focus on preserving the rank order of the performance of candidate CATE predictors to enable accurate and stable model selection. To this end, we analyze the model performance ranking …
This paper improves volatility forecasting using dynamic subset selection in genetic programming.
problem Improving accuracy of implied volatility forecasting.
method Dynamic training-subset selection methods applied to genetic programming.
result Dynamic subset selection improves predictive accuracy of genetic programming models.
IWeS selects examples by entropy-based importance sampling for subset selection.
problem Efficiently selecting examples for model training in batch settings.
method IWeS uses importance sampling based on model entropy to select examples.
result IWeS outperforms other subset selection algorithms on seven datasets.
Modeling high-frequency order book data with Hawkes-Markovian process.
problem Capturing the dynamics of high-frequency order book events.
method Hawkes process with Markovian baseline intensities, LASSO regularization, and Akaike Information Criteria.
result Effective modeling of order book dynamics with reduced parameter redundancy.
This paper develops a method to select a reference contract for multi-contract quoting to minimize execution risk.
problem Minimizing execution risk in multi-contract quoting sequences.
method Develops a diagnostic framework using order-flow Hawkes forecasts and CLF to select a stable reference contract.
result Event-history and LOB-state signals offer complementary views for reference-contract selection.
This paper is split in three parts: first we use labelled trade data to exhibit how market participants accept or not transactions via limit orders as a function of liquidity imbalance; then we develop a theoretical stochastic control framework to provide details on how one can exploit his knowledge on liquidity imbala…
A new algorithm selects models for contextual bandits, reducing regret.
problem Model selection for stochastic contextual bandits under realizability assumption.
method Adaptive Contextual Bandit (ACB) algorithm, successive refinement phases.
result ACB algorithm achieves similar regret bound to known algorithms, with a model selection cost.
We propose a limit order book (LOB) model with dynamics that account for both the impact of the most recent order and the shape of the LOB. We present an empirical analysis showing that the type of the last order significantly alters the submission rate of immediate future orders, even after accounting for the state of…
We propose a parametric model for the simulation of limit order books. We assume that limit orders, market orders and cancellations are submitted according to point processes with state-dependent intensities. We propose new functional forms for these intensities, as well as new models for the placement of limit orders …
Bayesian On-line Changepoint Detection is extended to on-line model selection and non-stationary spatio-temporal processes. We propose spatially structured Vector Autoregressions (VARs) for modelling the process between changepoints (CPs) and give an upper bound on the approximation error of such models. The resulting …
Study shows informed traders harm market makers but price discovery benefits outweigh costs.
problem Informed traders' impact on market makers' profitability.
method Agent-based model with heterogeneous learning agents, multi-agent reinforcement learning.
result Informed market order flow is harmful when aggregate informedness is low but beneficial as it increases.
Optimized variable orderings improve autoregressive model performance.
problem Challenges in variable ordering affect autoregressive model efficiency.
method Learn graphical model structure to inform optimal variable orderings.
result Graph-informed orderings yield higher-fidelity samples.
We consider the problem of performing matrix completion with side information on row-by-row and column-by-column similarities. We build upon recent proposals for matrix estimation with smoothness constraints with respect to row and column graphs. We present a novel iterative procedure for directly minimizing an informa…
Support vector machine (SVM) training is an active research area since the dawn of the method. In recent years there has been increasing interest in specialized solvers for the important case of linear models. The algorithm presented by Hsieh et al., probably best known under the name of the "liblinear" implementation,…
This paper studies non-asymptotic model selection for the general case of arbitrary design matrices and arbitrary nonzero entries of the signal. In this regard, it generalizes the notion of incoherence in the existing literature on model selection and introduces two fundamental measures of coherence---termed as the wor…
Bayesian method detects Markov order in network paths more reliably.
problem Detecting Markov order in constrained categorical sequences.
method Multi-order Bayesian modelling framework.
result Bayesian method detects correct Markov order more reliably than competing methods.
New EI strategies using OWA and SSD for excess return.
problem Selecting EI portfolios that stochastically dominate a benchmark.
method Proposes a new OWA-based EI model and introduces a new SSD criterion.
result OWA-based EI portfolios stochastically dominate a benchmark and generate excess return.
We develop a statistical framework to benchmark and select large language models based on their risks.
problem Benchmarking and selecting large language models based on their associated risks.
method A distributional framework using first and second order stochastic dominance, linked to mean-risk models in finance.
result Formalizes a risk-aware approach for model selection, balancing risk and utility.
This paper evaluates various loss functions for Transformer models in stock ranking.
problem Evaluating loss functions for Transformer models in stock ranking.
method Systematic evaluation of advanced loss functions (pointwise, pairwise, listwise) on S&P 500 data.
result Different loss functions impact a model's ability to discern profitable relative orderings among assets.
We test three common information criteria (IC) for selecting the order of a Hawkes process with an intensity kernel that can be expressed as a mixture of exponential terms. These processes find application in high-frequency financial data modelling. The information criteria are Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the…
Kernelized Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are among the best performing supervised learning methods. But for optimal predictive performance, time-consuming parameter tuning is crucial, which impedes application. To tackle this problem, the classic model selection procedure based on grid-search and cross-validation was …