The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.
problem Handling uncertain evidence in probabilistic models and stochastic simulators.
method The paper considers distributional evidence, Jeffrey's rule, and virtual evidence as methods for interpreting uncertain evidence.
result The paper provides guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and highlights the importance of careful consideration.
GEAR uses graphs to integrate and reason over multiple evidence for fact verification.
problem Fact verification requires integrating and reasoning over multiple pieces of evidence.
method GEAR employs a graph-based framework to transfer information among evidence and uses BERT for improved performance.
result GEAR achieves a promising test FEVER score of 67.10% on a large-scale benchmark dataset.
Evidence Networks simplify Bayesian model comparison for complex models.
problem Bayesian model comparison challenges with intractable likelihoods or priors.
method Loss functions and neural networks for fast, amortized estimation of Bayes factors.
result Evidence Networks provide accurate and scalable Bayes factor estimation.
New MLMC method reduces evidence estimation cost.
problem Efficiently estimating model evidence in Bayesian inference.
method Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) sampling for unbiased estimation.
result Significant computational savings in estimating model evidence.
Time-aware fact-checking improves veracity predictions for time-sensitive claims.
problem Fact-checking decisions should consider temporal information of claims and evidence.
method Investigated four temporal ranking methods to optimize evidence ranking for fact-checking models.
result Time-aware evidence ranking surpasses relevance assumptions and improves veracity predictions for time-sensitive claims.
DNNs improve accuracy by using more evidence from images.
problem Understanding why DNNs generalize well and improving model selection metrics.
method Minimal sufficient views (MSVs) to identify key evidence regions in images.
result DNNs with more evidence regions in images have higher generalization performance.
Bayesian neural networks show good correlation between out-of-sample performance and Bayesian evidence.
problem Improving the out-of-sample performance of Bayesian neural networks.
method Numerical sampling of Bayesian posterior, ensembling over architectures, analysis of evidence vs. model size.
result Good correlation between out-of-sample performance and Bayesian evidence; ensembling improves performance.
Bayesian evidence computation revisited for model selection with improper priors.
problem Model selection with improper priors and their impact on Bayesian evidence computation.
method Employing improper priors in model selection problems, distinguishing between Bayesian evidence and fake evidences.
result Diffuse priors asymptotically to infinity do not recover the area under the likelihood.
Martingale Doppelgänger-Eval benchmarks VLMs on candlestick evidence vs. trend extrapolation
problem Auditing whether VLMs use chart evidence or trend extrapolation
method Proving formal limitations and designing controlled mechanisms
result Identifying regression coefficients for evidence vs. trend
Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.
problem How evidence acquisition costs affect disclosure behavior and preference.
method Analyzes sender-receiver interactions with covert and overt evidence acquisition, varying certification costs.
result Equilibria converge to the Pareto-worst free-learning equilibrium as costs vanish, and receivers prefer covert to overt acquisition.
We propose a Bayesian evidence framework to facilitate transfer learning from pre-trained deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Our framework is formulated on top of a least squares SVM (LS-SVM) classifier, which is simple and fast in both training and testing, and achieves competitive performance in practice. The…
Enhances clustering by using external categorical data.
problem Improving clustering outcomes using external categorical evidence.
method Evidence transfer method that manipulates autoencoder latent representations based on external categorical data.
result Our method effectively manipulates latent representations with real evidence and remains robust with low quality evidence.
Deep Evidence Regression improves credit risk prediction uncertainty.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in credit risk predictions.
method Applying Deep Evidence Regression to credit risk settings.
result Demonstrated improved prediction of Loss Given Default.
This paper evaluates a method to improve representations using incomplete external evidence across tasks.
problem Increasing labelled data quality and quantity is challenging due to manual labelling errors and noise.
method Evidence Transfer method using incomplete categorical external evidence.
result Evidence Transfer proves effective and robust against different levels of incompleteness.
This article introduces a framework to estimate the value of evidence-based decision making.
problem Lack of empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making and optimize statistical precision.
method Empirical framework using parametric and nonparametric empirical Bayes methods.
result The value of statistical evidence depends on how organizations translate it into policy decisions.
New model predicts user ratings using chains of evidence.
problem Predicting user ratings from sparse data.
method Recursive evidence chains linking users and items.
result Competitive results in accuracy and speed.
This paper introduces a method to estimate log-likelihood in VAE models.
problem Difficulty in comparing models trained via ELBO due to lack of log-likelihood.
method Introduces a general upper bound to approximate model evidence.
result Efficiently approximates model evidence and compares to other bounds.
System validates truthfulness of statements with evidence.
problem Unverified contents in accessible information sources.
method Inference method on a knowledge graph (KG) combined with ontologies.
result System provides valid and concise evidence for false statements.
Bayes factors and relative belief ratios are compared as measures of statistical evidence.
problem Which measure of evidence is more appropriate: Bayes factors or relative belief ratios?
method Comparison of Bayes factors and relative belief ratios, considering properties and restrictions.
result Relative belief ratio has better properties as a measure of evidence.
Method estimates Bayesian evidence from posterior samples using normalizing flows.
problem Estimating Bayesian evidence from posterior samples.
method Normalizing flows for evidence estimation.
result Method is more robust to sharp features in posterior distributions, especially in higher dimensions.
Evidence found for critical behavior in financial data.
problem Understanding the statistical properties of financial markets.
method Analysis of normalized return distributions for top companies, modeling with q-Gaussians.
result Monotonic relationship between q and β, indicating critical behavior.
Empirical study finds variance swap rate is affine in spot variance for S&P500 data.
problem Investigating the relationship between variance swap rate and spot variance.
method Empirical analysis using S&P500 data from 2006-2018, testing different models.
result Affine relationship between variance swap rate and spot variance is supported.
Adapts linearised Laplace method for deep learning models.
problem Incompatibility of linearised Laplace method with modern deep learning tools.
method Examines and adapts linearised Laplace method for model selection in deep learning.
result Recommendations for better adapting linearised Laplace method to modern deep learning.
FAML addresses biased evidence learning in multi-view learning, improving fairness and prediction reliability.
problem Biased evidence learning in multi-view learning, leading to unreliable uncertainty estimation.
method FAML introduces an adaptive prior and fairness constraint to balance evidence allocation across views.
result FAML enhances fairness and improves prediction reliability compared to state-of-the-art methods.
A system for supervising decentralized finance risks using LLMs and structured evidence.
problem Supervising decentralized finance risks
method Forecast-grounded agentic supervision system
result Developed a system that scores tickets against a regulator-aligned ground truth and false-intervention rate.
Bayesian neural networks update beliefs with soft evidence, improving accuracy and calibration.
problem Updating neural network weights with uncertain or soft evidence.
method Developed two algorithms to approximate Jeffrey's rule for updating neural network weights.
result Jeffrey-based methods outperform traditional approaches in accuracy and calibration, especially in noisy data.
DeXposure-Claw supervises decentralized finance risks by grounding LLM decisions in evidence.
problem Weak evidence leads to over-interventions by general-purpose LLM agents in decentralized finance.
method DeXposure-Claw uses a graph time-series foundation model to forecast exposure networks, turning forecasts into alerts and constraining escalation with data-health gates.
result DeXposure-Claw reduces false alarms and improves regulator alignment in decentralized finance risk supervision.
New particle filter estimates model evidence without bias.
problem Unbiased estimation of marginal likelihood for model comparison.
method Particle filter with rejection control.
result Unbiased estimation of marginal likelihood.
Fuzzy Bayesian Learning uses model evidence to choose best rule base.
problem Selecting the best fuzzy rule base among alternatives.
method Calculates marginal likelihood to compare models.
result Marginal likelihood provides a better model selection than MSE.
Paper proposes a robust variational inference method for noisy data.
problem Variational inference struggles with random noise in training data.
method Develops a new robust evidence lower bound for variational autoencoders.
result The new objective outperforms the standard evidence lower bound on noisy datasets.
We consider the game-theoretic scenario of testing the performance of Forecaster by Sceptic who gambles against the forecasts. Sceptic's current capital is interpreted as the amount of evidence he has found against Forecaster. Reporting the maximum of Sceptic's capital so far exaggerates the evidence. We characterize t…
This paper develops a framework for efficient decision-making under time pressure.
problem Efficient decision-making under time pressure and subjective tradeoffs.
method Unified framework for evidence-based decision-making under time pressure.
result Ability to model and understand decision-making behavior under time constraints.
The natural gradient of ELBO vanishes in unconstrained optimization, simplifying learning.
problem The gap between evidence and ELBO has a vanishing natural gradient.
method Analyzes the Fisher-Rao gradient of ELBO and its implications for learning.
result Maximizing ELBO is equivalent to minimizing KL divergence, simplifying learning.
The paper examines how updates to probabilistic models influence behavior based on evidence.
problem Understanding how updates to probabilistic models influence behavior based on evidence.
method Study of KL-regularized soft updates as Bayesian posterior updates within a single probabilistic model.
result Posterior updates determine relative incentives but not absolute rewards, which are ambiguous up to context-specific baselines.
Deployment-complete benchmarking assesses if evidence leads to consistent deployment actions.
problem Lack of clear evidence leading to consistent deployment actions.
method Introduces deployment-complete benchmarking to test if benchmark evidence determines deployment actions.
result Benchmark evidence must be complete for a claim to lead to a consistent deployment action.
LPF provides formal guarantees for aggregating multi-evidence in probabilistic tasks.
problem Lack of formal guarantees for multi-evidence reasoning in AI.
method LPF uses variational autoencoders and Sum-Product Networks to aggregate evidence items.
result Proves multiple formal guarantees including calibration preservation and error decay.
Parallelized Bayesian quadrature improves sample efficiency and inference.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference and model evidence calculation.
method Batch Bayesian quadrature with kernel recombination for parallel sampling.
result Empirically, outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various datasets.
Aggregator learns optimal forecast aggregation in partial evidence environments.
problem Forecast aggregation in repeated binary event settings with expert forecasts.
method Bayesian experts with partial evidence, aggregator learns optimal aggregation.
result Optimal aggregation can be learned in polynomial time for a wide range of partial evidence environments.
Supporting evidence for adaptive feature program across diverse models.
problem Analyzing feature learning in neural networks.
method Over-parameterized sequence models and feature error measure (FEM).
result FEM is decreasing during training of adaptive feature models.
Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions to measure evidence conflict and stability.
problem Modern data analysis lacks mechanisms to show the clarity, conflict, or stability of evidence behind predictions.
method Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions.
result SEF measures conflict and stability, and shows that conflict can improve loss prediction beyond confidence.
Paper develops a model for verifying facts in tables without pre-retrieved evidence.
problem Verification of factual claims in structured data, especially in open-domain settings.
method Joint reranking-and-verification model that fuses evidence documents.
result Model achieves comparable performance to closed-domain state-of-the-art on TabFact dataset.
Bayesian model selection can be misled by ELBO under certain conditions.
problem Misleading model selection when using ELBO for Bayesian inference.
method Analysis of ELBO-based hyperparameter learning in a simple regression model.
result Bayesian model selection can prefer overfit models when ELBO is used, contrary to evidence.
New method detects hidden market predictability despite anomalies.
problem Inference issues in predictive regressions with small violations.
method Novel testing framework resistant to violations of ideal assumptions.
result Large improvements in robust evidence of market predictability.
Automated model selection using Bayesian quadrature improves efficiency.
problem Slow convergence and unreliability of Monte Carlo methods for model comparison.
method Automated algorithm maximizing mutual information between posterior probability and model likelihoods.
result More accurate model posterior estimates with fewer likelihood evaluations.
Method detects batch heterogeneity in genomic data.
problem Batch effects confound genomic diagnostics.
method Bayesian model evidence clustering.
result Detects batch effects without known labels.
Study aggregation of statistical evidence under unknown dependence using group-invariance.
problem Aggregating statistical evidence under unknown and complex dependence structures.
method Develops a framework using group-invariance and permutation-based constructions to aggregate evidence across transformed datasets.
result Shows uniform improvement in critical values for single-batch aggregation over deterministic calibrations, adapting to unknown dependence structures.
Develops ELBD for efficient feature selection in VAE latent variables.
problem Feature selection in latent variables of VAE and its variants.
method ELBD score algorithm and weak convergence approximation for optimization.
result Effective feature selection and optimization of VAE models.
Study preferences over uncertain time payments, finds growth-optimality better than expected utility theory.
problem Understanding how people make decisions with uncertain timing of payments.
method Normative model of growth-optimality, revisiting experimental evidence on time lotteries.
result Growth-optimality better explains experimental data on time lotteries than expected discounted utility theory.