A VAE model predicts material properties and microstructures.
problem Building forward and inverse structure-property linkages in materials science.
method Combines VAE with regression, using a two-level prior and multi-modal Gaussian mixture.
result The model achieves accurate forward and inverse predictions of material properties and microstructures.
Paper clusters microstructure measures for better stock return prediction.
problem Finding the best microstructure measures for predicting stock returns.
method Clustering model of market microstructure features studied in 10-second time-frequency.
result Identifies the most effective microstructure measures for accurate stock return prediction.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
Microstructures of a material form the bridge linking processing conditions - which can be controlled, to the material property - which is the primary interest in engineering applications. Thus a critical task in material design is establishing the processing-structure relationship, which requires domain expertise and …
The study finds a liquidity premium in stock returns, but only after correcting for microstructure noise.
problem The positive association between expected idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns.
method Developed a novel method to eliminate microstructure influences from stock returns and estimate idiosyncratic volatility.
result The liquidity premium in value-weighted portfolios is driven by liquidity in the prior month after correcting for microstructure noise.
A framework uses deep generative modeling to design metamaterials efficiently.
problem Designing metamaterials with complex properties is challenging due to high-dimensional design space and high computational cost.
method A variational autoencoder (VAE) and a regressor are trained on a large database to map microstructures to a latent space, enabling interpolation and manipulation of microstructures.
result The latent space provides a distance metric for shape similarity and encoding meaningful patterns of variation, enabling efficient design of microstructures and multiscale systems.
Bayesian neural networks predict stress fields and uncertainty in materials.
problem Uncertainty in stress field predictions for complex materials.
method Modified Bayesian U-net architecture with three inference algorithms.
result High accuracy predictions and interpretable uncertainty estimates.
Study of Polymarket's prediction market microstructure using tick-level order book data.
problem Understanding the microstructure of decentralized prediction markets.
method Analysis of a continuous tick-level order book feed and on-chain trade records.
result Trade direction inferred from Polymarket's public order-book feed disagrees with on-chain data in ~59% of cases.
This study reviews decentralized prediction markets, identifying key design variants and open problems.
problem Designing and implementing decentralized prediction markets with desirable properties.
method Modular workflow comprising eight stages: infrastructure, market topic, share structure, pricing, market initialization, trading, resolution, settlement, and archiving. Analysis of design variants and trade-offs.
result Identification of open problems for researchers in the field of decentralized prediction markets.
Enhances topology optimization with multiclass microstructures using latent variable Gaussian process.
problem Lack of an inherent ordering or distance measure between different classes of microstructures.
method Extended latent-variable Gaussian process (LVGP) models to multi-response LVGP (MR-LVGP) models for metamaterials.
result Improved performance through consistent load-transfer paths for micro- and macro-structures.
Study confirms rough volatility in financial data, independent of microstructure noise.
problem Characterizing volatility in financial markets, especially rough volatility.
method Used range-based volatility estimators to confirm findings from fractional behavior.
result Log-volatility behaves like fractional Brownian motion with an even lower Hurst exponent.
Paper introduces SCI to distinguish market signals from coordination.
problem Unclear signals in prediction markets.
method Formalizes SCI, introduces weighted and time-varying extensions.
result Discriminates between market signals and coordination.
A key problem in computational material science deals with understanding the effect of material distribution (i.e., microstructure) on material performance. The challenge is to synthesize microstructures, given a finite number of microstructure images, and/or some physical invariances that the microstructure exhibits. …
Unified framework for forward and inverse PDE problems in multiphase media.
problem Non-differentiable inverse problems in discrete-valued material fields.
method GenPANIS: Latent-variable generative framework preserving discrete microstructures.
result Unified bidirectional inference with minimal labeled pairs and physics-aware decoder.
Study shows changes in information sharing between Bitcoin markets during 2017 crash.
problem Understanding information dynamics in Bitcoin markets during the 2017 crash.
method Analysis of high-frequency market-microstructure observables using information theoretic measures.
result Temporal changes in information sharing across markets, including predictability, memory, and synchronous coupling.
Dual ML approach predicts peak temperatures in AFSD, improving process optimization.
problem Lack of understanding between process parameters and resulting microstructure in AFSD.
method Combines supervised machine learning and physics-informed neural networks.
result Ensemble techniques like gradient boosting outperform other SML methods in predicting peak temperatures.
Polymarket-v1 Database tracks 1.2B trades across 1.3M markets with 100% ground-truth direction.
problem Lack of ground-truth data in prediction markets archives.
method Ground-truth archive of 1.2B trades from Polymarket's CTF Exchange.
result Ground-truth data reveals systematic errors in microstructure metrics.
This paper analyzes arbitrage opportunities in Polymarket's NBA markets.
problem Underexplored market microstructure and high-frequency pricing efficiency in decentralized prediction markets.
method Systematic empirical analysis of algorithmic arbitrage using over 75 million limit order book snapshots.
result Microstructural efficiency is profound, with single-market anomalies rare and combinatorial inefficiencies more frequent.
Establishes a microstructural foundation for a rough log-normal volatility model.
problem Developing a robust model for financial volatility under microstructural effects.
method Introduced a sequence of order-driven financial market models with Poisson process arrivals and analyzed their convergence to a log-normal rough volatility model.
result Weak convergence of price-volatility process to a log-normal rough volatility model with established weak error rates.
Framework automates microstructure image analysis for materials science.
problem Complex microstructures in materials require automated analysis.
method Combines unsupervised and supervised learning for classification and segmentation.
result Framework can automatically segment and classify micrographs.
We discuss a Bayesian formulation to coarse-graining (CG) of PDEs where the coefficients (e.g. material parameters) exhibit random, fine scale variability. The direct solution to such problems requires grids that are small enough to resolve this fine scale variability which unavoidably requires the repeated solution of…
This study examines non-retail trading on Polymarket, revealing unique behavior patterns and structural limitations.
problem Lack of address-level quote-lifecycle data in Polymarket prediction markets.
method Empirical analysis of 13 million order-filled events using DBSCAN clustering on a six-feature fill-side vector.
result Non-retail behavior is uni-modal, contradicting previous archetypal hypotheses.
Optimizes natural frequencies of cellular composites with various microstructures.
problem Designing cellular composites with diverse microstructures for maximizing natural frequencies.
method Data-driven topology optimization with a latent-variable Gaussian process model.
result Cellular designs with multiclass microstructures achieve higher natural frequencies.
We present a simple microstructure model of financial returns that combines (i) the well-known ARFIMA process applied to tick-by-tick returns, (ii) the bid-ask bounce effect, (iii) the fat tail structure of the distribution of returns and (iv) the non-Poissonian statistics of inter-trade intervals. This model allows us…
Two models incorporate market microstructure noise into asset pricing and option valuation.
problem Effect of market microstructure noise on asset pricing and option valuation.
method Developed two models: a continuous-time Black-Scholes-Merton model and a discrete binomial tree model.
result Extracted coefficients to quantify noise impact on volatility and drift.
A new model prices assets considering market microstructure effects.
problem Including market microstructure effects in dynamic asset pricing.
method Discrete binary tree model with history-dependent underlying security prices.
result The model preserves historical price dynamics and is market-complete, arbitrage-free.
Deep learning predicts stock price changes in Limit Order Books.
problem Predicting high-frequency Limit Order Book mid-price changes.
method Cutting-edge deep learning methodologies applied to NASDAQ stocks.
result Deep learning methods' effectiveness varies by stock microstructure.
Matched filters reveal optimal normalization methods for different market participants.
problem Optimizing signal extraction from order flow for market microstructure analysis.
method General matched filter principle applied to normalization strategies.
result Optimal normalization methods (e.g., SMC and STV) differ based on trader types. Paper establishes MLE consistency for market microstructure models.
problem Estimating parameters in partially observed diffusion models.
method Tractable sufficient condition for MLE consistency based on stationary distribution.
result Maximum likelihood estimators are consistent for market microstructure parameters.
Article examines NFT market microstructure and trading risks.
problem Difficulty in distinguishing genuine NFTs from fads and scams.
method Analyzes price formation, market structure, and transparency.
result Provides due-diligence pointers to mitigate NFT trading risk.
Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) aims to accelerate optimal design of complex material systems by integrating material science and design automation. For tractable ICME, it is required that (1) a structural feature space be identified to allow reconstruction of new designs, and (2) the reconstructi…
In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure noise on some volatility…
Method detects effects of synthesis parameters on plutonium oxide microstructure.
problem Detecting effects of synthesis parameters on material microstructure.
method Copula theory, high dimensional distribution distances, and permutational statistics.
result Effects of strike order and oxalic acid feed on plutonium oxide microstructure detected.
The IMH suggests market price fluctuations are driven by order flow, not fundamental values.
problem Reconciling IMH with microstructure literature on market dynamics.
method Reviewed empirical facts and applied Latent Liquidity Theory to predict price impact multiplier.
result The multiplier M is of order unity, consistent with IMH, and depends on stock volatility and daily traded market cap fraction. Paper improves volatility estimation using a Queue-Reactive model.
problem Volatility estimation from high-frequency data is biased by microstructure noise.
method Uses Queue-Reactive model of limit order book to improve volatility estimation.
result Unified and alternation estimators lead to optimal mean squared error for integrated volatility.
TradeFM learns market microstructure from trade events, improving financial model accuracy.
problem Lack of generalizable models for market microstructure.
method Generative Transformer model trained on billions of trade events, using scale-invariant features and universal tokenization.
result TradeFM generates rollouts that match key stylized facts of financial returns and outperforms existing models.
This article provides a simple explanation of the asymptotic concavity of the price impact of a meta-order via the microstructural properties of the market. This explanation is made more precise by a model in which the local relationship between the order flow and the fundamental price (i.e. the local price impact) is …
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.
Two models predict similar high-frequency price dynamics but differ in low-frequency impact strength.
problem Understanding the relationship between market prices and fundamental information.
method Comparing a microfounded linear model with a data-driven model at high and low frequencies.
result Both models predict similar high-frequency price dynamics but differ in low-frequency impact strength.
Researchers adaptively analyze market regimes to reveal investor behavior shifts.
problem Market relationships shift across different regimes, affecting investor behavior.
method Combining Kalman filtering, Markov-switching, and asymmetric response estimation.
result Foreign investors' predictive power increases during crises, while individual investors react more strongly to positive shocks.
The paper develops a method to predict the latent deterioration phase in limit order books before stress is observed.
problem Limit order books can transition rapidly from stable to stressed conditions, making it difficult to detect the latent deterioration phase.
method The paper formalizes a three-regime causal data-generating process and proposes a trigger-based detector combining MAX aggregation of complementary signal channels, a rising-edge condition, and adaptive thresholding.
result The proposed method achieves mean lead-time of +18.6 timesteps with perfect precision and moderate coverage, outperforming classical change-point and microstructure baselines.
Enhances binomial model with machine learning for microstructure effects.
problem Traditional binomial models ignore market microstructure effects like bid-ask spreads.
method Augments binomial tree with Random Forest classifiers trained on market data.
result Achieves 88.25% AUC in forecasting price movements using real-world data.
Estimates financial networks using high-frequency trade data.
problem Leverage high-resolution intraday trade data for financial network insights.
method Estimate financial networks using random forests with microstructure measures.
result Higher network density in 2007, with Lehman Brothers having high degree connectivity.
We simulate a series of daily returns from intraday price movements initiated by microstructure elements. Significant evidence is found that daily returns and daily return volatility exhibit first order autocorrelation, but trading volume and daily return volatility are not correlated, while intraday volatility is. We …
Audit financial machine learning workflows to detect spurious predictability.
problem Spurious predictability in financial machine learning models.
method Falsification audit testing predictive workflows against synthetic environments.
result Many apparent financial predictions are artifacts, not genuine.
In this paper, we build tests for the presence of residual noise in a model where the market microstructure noise is a known parametric function of some variables from the limit order book. The tests compare two distinct quasi-maximum likelihood estimators of volatility, where the related model includes a residual nois…
This paper presents a new interacting particle system and uses it as a spin model for financial market microstructure. The asymptotic analysis of this stochastic process exhibits a lower bound to the contemporaneous measurement of price and trading volume under the invariant measure in the `frozen' phase of the supercr…
New method for spot volatility estimation with reduced microstructure noise.
problem Estimating spot volatility from noisy high-frequency data.
method Pre-averaging/kernel estimator to handle microstructure noise.
result Optimal bandwidth selection and kernel functions for minimal variance.