The paper examines MAPE's use in regression models and its implications.
problem The use of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a quality measure for regression models.
method Proves the existence of an optimal MAPE model, shows universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on MAPE, and demonstrates the equivalence of MAPE model selection to weighted MAE regression.
result Finding the best model under MAPE is equivalent to weighted MAE regression, and this strategy is applied to kernel regression.
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
This paper models yearly exchange rates between USD/KZT, EUR/KZT and SGD/KZT, and compares the actual data with developed forecasts using time series analysis over the period from 2006 to 2014. The official yearly data of National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan is used for present study. The main goal of this paper…
Research uses Sutte Indicator to predict stock market movements.
problem Predicting stock market movements accurately.
method Applied Sutte Indicator alongside SMA and MACD for comparison.
result Sutte Indicator shows better reliability in predicting stock movements.
The study improves heat demand prediction using neural networks and weather parameters.
problem Improving accuracy of heat demand prediction in district heating networks.
method Used an Elman neural network to investigate the impact of direct solar irradiance and wind speed on heat demand prediction.
result Including wind speed generally results in lower MAPE than including direct solar irradiance, but direct solar irradiance achieves lower maximum absolute deviation.
Machine learning predicts Bitcoin price with high accuracy.
problem Uncertainty in Bitcoin price prediction for investors.
method Used machine learning techniques with technical indicators.
result Stacking ensemble model with random forest and GLM is optimal.
New model predicts sales of new products with short life cycles.
problem Forecasting sales of new products with short lead times and life cycles.
method Developed an exponential factorization machine (EFM) to consider attributes and pairwise interactions.
result EFM model outperforms existing models in terms of MAPE and MAE.
Model predicts passenger origin-destination for online taxi-hailing systems.
problem Predicting passenger origin-destination for efficient transportation planning.
method K-means clustering, non-negative matrix factorization, stacked recurrent neural network.
result Proposed model reduces MAPE by 5-7% for 1-hour windows and 14% for 30-minute windows.
The study forecasts portfolio volatility using cointegrated asset dynamics.
problem Forecasting volatility in portfolios with high accuracy.
method Developed HVR/DVR ratios and used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to forecast volatility.
result VECM forecasts of portfolio volatility have lower MAPE than covariance-based forecasts.
Algorithm optimizes ε-SVR with MAPE loss and sample-dependent constraints.
problem Optimizing ε-SVR with MAPE loss and sample-dependent constraints.
method Sequential Minimal Optimization (SMO) for ε-SVR with MAPE loss and sample-dependent box constraints.
result Algorithm achieves lowest median runtime on every tested configuration.
Predict stock prices using financial news sentiment analysis.
problem Predicting stock market trends for better investment returns.
method Deep Learning (MLP, LSTM, FinBERT-LSTM) integrating news sentiment.
result FinBERT-LSTM model predicts stock prices more accurately.
Adaptive framework predicts stock prices better during volatile periods.
problem Inability of standard prediction models to handle regime-dependent stock market behavior.
method Autoencoder-Gated Dual Node Transformers with Reinforcement Learning Control.
result 0.59% MAPE with adaptive system, compared to 0.80% for baseline.
This paper compares ML models for predicting COVID-19 trends.
problem Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 to reduce its impact.
method Applied ARDL method to identify relationships, then used ML models (SVM, RF, KNN, ANN) for prediction.
result Models accurately forecasted COVID-19 cases with low MAPE.
Optimizes neural network for aerodynamic predictions with Bayesian Optimization.
problem Building efficient and accurate predictive models for aerodynamic performance.
method Bayesian Optimization for hyper-parameter tuning of a lightweight neural network.
result Significant improvement in accuracy (MAPE drops from 0.1433% to 0.0163%) and efficiency.
Deep model improves option pricing for CSI 300 index with sentiment and volatility features.
problem Challenges in real market option pricing, especially with constant volatility assumption.
method Deep Forward-Backward Stochastic Differential Equation (FBSDE) framework with dual-network architecture.
result Significant reduction in MAE and MAPE compared to BSM model.
Neural networks predict stock prices better than traditional methods.
problem Predicting stock prices in volatile financial markets.
method Compared five neural network models (BP, RBF, GRNN, SVMR, LS-SVMR) on three stocks.
result BP neural network outperformed other models in accuracy.
This paper combines a node transformer with BERT sentiment analysis for more accurate stock market predictions.
problem Challenges in predicting stock markets due to noise, non-stationarity, and behavioral dynamics.
method Integrates a node transformer architecture with BERT sentiment analysis to forecast stock prices.
result The integrated model reduces prediction error by 10% overall and 25% during earnings announcements.
How to price and hedge claims on nontraded assets are becoming increasingly important matters in option pricing theory today. The most common practice to deal with these issues is to use another similar or "closely related" asset or index which is traded, for hedging purposes. Implicitly, traders assume here that the h…
Study forecasts vegetable prices in Nepal using a novel index and ensemble model.
problem High volatility and cultural influences on agricultural commodity prices.
method Developed KVPI, created features, evaluated multiple models, introduced Momentum-Corrected Online Stacking Ensemble.
result Achieved RMSE of 1.771, MAPE of 0.68%, and R-squared of 0.845 at 90-day horizon.
This study improves stock price prediction using multimodal data.
problem Improving financial asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Combining candlestick time series and textual news flow data using LSTM and pre-trained models.
result Textual modality reduces MAPE by 55%.
A hybrid physics-ML model predicts FO water flux with high accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
problem Challenges in accurately modeling Forward Osmosis water flux due to complex internal mass transfer phenomena.
method Robust Hybrid Physics-ML framework using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) for uncertainty-aware Jw prediction.
result Achieved a state-of-the-art MAPE of 0.26% and R2 of 0.999 on independent test data.
Study uses AI to estimate food demand for businesses.
problem Difficulty in predicting daily food demand for personnel.
method Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) model trained on historical data.
result ANN model predicts daily food demand with low error rate.
Improved genetic algorithm optimizes SVR for robust long-term stock index forecasting.
problem Inaccurate long-term stock price predictions.
method Adaptive Weighted Genetic Algorithm-Optimized SVR (IGA-SVR).
result Reduction in MAPE by 19.87% compared to LSTM and 50.03% compared to OGA-SVR.
This study improves sales forecasting for Intel Corporation in the semiconductor industry.
problem Accurate sales forecasting in the semiconductor industry for Intel Corporation.
method Innovative incorporation of various indicators into quantitative models, including multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest, and boosting tree. Ensemble models selected based on validation errors and moving windows validation.
result Development of an ensemble model that captures distinct characteristics at lead time and lines of business levels, improving response to market fluctuations.
Research evaluates ANN stock price prediction system for Shanghai Stock Exchange.
problem Predicting exact stock prices in the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
method Feedforward multi-layer perceptron with error backpropagation, using 5:21:21:1 configuration with 80% training data.
result Neural networks can predict stock prices with low mean absolute percentage errors (1.95%).
Predicts Bitcoin price using Twitter sentiment analysis.
problem Volatility and varied opinions in cryptocurrency markets.
method Developed a model combining sentiment analysis of tweets and historical price data.
result Sentiment prediction MAPE of 9.45%, price prediction MAPE of 3.6%
Study uses aerial or satellite imagery to improve land price prediction in Thailand.
problem Limited accuracy of traditional land price prediction methods.
method Proposes a similarity-based asset valuation model using Siamese-inspired Neural Network and ensembles deep learning and tree-based models.
result Achieves an AUC of approximately 0.81, outperforming traditional methods.
New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.
problem Accurately predicting battery lifetime under varying conditions is challenging due to manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation.
method Extracted features from regularly scheduled reference performance tests and used them to predict battery lifetime using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model.
result Demonstrated a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using only the first 15% of data.
Hinge-FM2I fills missing data in time series with high accuracy.
problem Handling missing data in univariate time series.
method Inspired by door hinges, Hinge-FM2I imputes missing data using FM2I and selects the best imputed gap.
result Hinge-FM2I significantly outperforms other methods in sMAPE scores.
Optimizes UUV hull design with a two-orders-of-magnitude speedup.
problem Designing efficient underwater vehicle hulls using CFD simulations.
method Bayesian Optimization-LCB algorithm and DNN-based surrogate model.
result Two-orders-of-magnitude speedup in design optimization process.
Study enhances financial forecasting with machine learning and fuzzy MCDM.
problem Increasing financial uncertainty and market complexity.
method Integrates machine learning (XGBoost, LSTM, GNN) and intuitionistic fuzzy MCDM.
result High forecasting accuracy with low MAPE and narrow confidence intervals.
Improved traffic flow prediction model using Kalman filter noise reduction.
problem Low accuracy in predicting traffic flow parameters due to limited connected vehicle data.
method Combined LSTM with Kalman filter-based RTS noise reduction.
result Reduced prediction errors by 50-70% for speed and space headway.
Deep learning model predicts stock volatility using Google trends.
problem Predicting stock volatility using neural networks.
method Long Short-Term Memory neural network with Google domestic trends as input.
result Model outperforms benchmarks with MAPE of 24.2%.
The paper bounds the mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression.
problem Bounding the mean absolute error in deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Error decomposition techniques in statistical learning theory and non-convex optimization theory were used to derive upper bounds for approximation, estimation, and optimization errors.
result Theoretical upper bounds for mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression were derived and validated experimentally.
Study evaluates 41 ML models for Bitcoin trading performance.
problem Predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading.
method Examined 21 classifiers and 20 regressors under various market conditions.
result Certain models like Random Forest and Stochastic Gradient Descent outperform others in profit and risk management.
Hybrid model outperforms benchmarks in financial forecasting.
problem Robust asset price forecasting in finance.
method Combining LSTM with Neural Levy Processes using Grey Wolf Optimizer and ANN calibration.
result Hybrid model outperforms base LSTM and other models.
Hybrid model predicts stock prices more accurately.
problem Efficient stock price prediction.
method Symbiotic organisms search algorithm trained feedforward neural networks.
result Outstanding predictive performance compared to other models.
Unified ML approach predicts ED attendances with high accuracy.
problem Managing hospital demand at emergency departments efficiently.
method Ensemble of time series and machine learning approaches with hyperparameter tuning.
result Predictions with mean absolute error of +/- 14 and +/- 10 patients, MAE of 6.8% and 8.6%.
Predicts fine-grained OD matrices for ridesharing platforms to optimize supply-demand balance.
problem Accurately predicting spatial-temporal OD demands for ridesharing platforms.
method OD-CED model combining unsupervised space coarsening and encoder-decoder architecture.
result Significant improvement in prediction accuracy (45% RMSE reduction, 60% WAPE reduction).
Paper improves language models' ability to predict numbers.
problem Improving language models' numeracy for technical documents.
method Exploring memorisation, digit-by-digit composition, and a continuous probability density function model.
result Hierarchical models improve perplexity by 2 and 4 orders of magnitude.
Meta-learning predicts optimal ensemble size and methods for time series forecasting.
problem Finding the best ensemble of time series forecasting methods.
method Two-step approach using meta-learning to predict ensemble size and methods.
result Meta-learning outperformed benchmarks in forecasting errors for all data types and horizons.
The paper explores MAE as a loss function for DNN vector-to-vector regression, proving its advantages over MSE.
problem Improving loss function for deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Presenting performance bounds and new properties of MAE, deriving generalized upper bounds, and interpreting MAE as a Laplacian distribution.
result MAE is a more suitable loss function than MSE for DNN based vector-to-vector regression, especially when errors follow a Laplacian distribution.
This study compares deep learning and statistical models for stock price forecasting.
problem Accurate stock price prediction is challenging due to market volatility.
method Used deep learning (LSTM, RNN, CNN, FULL CNN) and statistical models (ARIMA, Moving Averages) on S&P 500 data.
result LSTM model showed the lowest Mean Absolute Error (MAE), indicating highest accuracy.
SAGA predicts multi-year earnings with adaptive intervals, improving forecast accuracy.
problem Forecasting long-range nonlinear structure in lifetime earnings.
method Decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular sequences, split conformal calibration.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to existing methods.
New online adaptive SVR model for IVS with hardware acceleration.
problem Modeling implied volatility surface (IVS) in real-time.
method Online adaptive primal support vector regression (SVR) with hardware acceleration.
result Gaussian kernel outperforms linear kernel in support vector size regulation.
Optimal stock price prediction model using recurrent neural networks with RMSprop optimizer.
problem Stock price prediction using neural networks.
method Comparison of fully connected, convolutional, and recurrent architectures; inclusion of three optimization techniques.
result Single layer recurrent neural network with RMSprop optimizer produces optimal results with validation and test MAE of 0.0150 and 0.0148 respectively.
Method estimates parameters of complex nonlinear systems.
problem Parameter estimation for nonlinear systems with derivative states.
method Regularized linear regression using differentiation filtering and least squares.
result Finite-sample bound on mean absolute error of estimation.