A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti and M. Mézard [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for fin…
The purpose of this research is to apply technical analysis of Sutte Indicator in stock trading which will assist in the investment decision making process i.e. buying or selling shares. This research takes data of "A" on the Indonesia Stock Exchange(IDX or BEI) 29 November 2006 until 20 September 2016 period. To see t…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility covariance matrix of the time series is modelled via inverted Wishart and singul…
Procyclicality of historical risk measure estimation means that one tends to over-estimate future risk when present realized volatility is high and vice versa under-estimate future risk when the realized volatility is low. Out of it different questions arise, relevant for applications and theory: What are the factors w…
Recently, it has been shown that Absolute Parallelism (AP) geometry admits paths that are naturally quantized. These paths have been used to describe the motion of spinning particles in a background gravitational field. In case of a weak static gravitational field limits, the paths are applied successfully to interpret…
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters. In order to further improve the model accuracy, it is of great importance to und…
A main goal of regression is to derive statistical conclusions on the conditional distribution of the output variable Y given the input values x. Two of the most important characteristics of a single distribution are location and scale. Support vector machines (SVMs) are well established to estimate location functions …
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We show that universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimiza…
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We show that finding the best model under the MAPE is equivalent to doing weighted Mean Absolute Error (MAE) regression. We also show that, under some asumptions, universal consisten…
A complete surface of constant mean curvature 1 (CMC-1) in hyperbolic 3-space with constant curvature -1 has two natural notions of "total curvature"-- one is the total absolute curvature which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature, and the other is the dual total absolute cur…
We study the sensitivity to estimation error of portfolios optimized under various risk measures, including variance, absolute deviation, expected shortfall and maximal loss. We introduce a measure of portfolio sensitivity and test the various risk measures by considering simulated portfolios of varying sizes N and for…
We study in this paper the consequences of using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) as a measure of quality for regression models. We prove the existence of an optimal MAPE model and we show the universal consistency of Empirical Risk Minimization based on the MAPE. We also show that finding the best model under…
Improved robust regression for heavy-tailed and contaminated data.
problem Linear regression with heavy-tailed and adversarially contaminated covariates and responses.
method Applying a filtering algorithm to covariates and then using Huber regression, least trimmed squares, or least absolute deviation estimators on the remaining data.
result Near-optimal error rates achieved for the Huber regression estimator.
The prediction of stock prices is an important task in economics, investment and making financial decisions. This has, for decades, spurred the interest of many researchers to make focused contributions to the design of accurate stock price predictive models; of which some have been utilized to predict the next day ope…
We review recent results on classifying complete constant mean curvature 1 (CMC 1) surfaces in hyperbolic 3-space with low total curvature. There are two natural notions of "total curvature" -- one is the total absolute curvature, which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature, a…
We survey our recent results on classifying complete constant mean curvature 1 (CMC-1) surfaces in hyperbolic 3-space with low total curvature. There are two natural notions of "total curvature"-- one is the total absolute curvature which is the integral over the surface of the absolute value of the Gaussian curvature,…
The paper bounds the mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression.
problem Bounding the mean absolute error in deep neural network based vector-to-vector regression.
method Error decomposition techniques in statistical learning theory and non-convex optimization theory were used to derive upper bounds for approximation, estimation, and optimization errors.
result Theoretical upper bounds for mean absolute error in DNN vector-to-vector regression were derived and validated experimentally.
Financial markets are notoriously complex environments, presenting vast amounts of noisy, yet potentially informative data. We consider the problem of forecasting financial time series from a wide range of information sources using online Gaussian Processes with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) kernels. We measu…
In this paper we propose the notion of dynamic deviation measure, as a dynamic time-consistent extension of the (static) notion of deviation measure. To achieve time-consistency we require that a dynamic deviation measures satisfies a generalised conditional variance formula. We show that, under a domination condition,…
The paper explores optimal insurance contracts using various deviation measures.
problem Optimal insurance contracts with mean-deviation measures.
method Study of convex signed Choquet integrals and standard deviation as deviation measures, analyzing premium principles like expected value, Value-at-Risk, and Expected Shortfall.
result Characterization of optimal indemnities and deductibles under different premium principles.
Unified framework evaluates different nearest neighbor classification methods.
problem Evaluating and comparing classical, fuzzy, and fuzzy rough nearest neighbor classification methods.
method Standardized nearest neighbor weighting with kernel functions applied to distance and/or rank values of nearest neighbors.
result NN, FNN, and FRNN perform best with Boscovich distance, and NN and FRNN perform best with specific combinations of weights and scaling measures.