The paper analyzes trade execution strategies for large traders in a stochastic market environment.
problem Analyzing trade execution strategies in a stochastic market with price impact.
method Formulated a Markov game model and used backward induction method of dynamic programming.
result Explicit closed-form execution strategy at Markov perfect equilibrium.
Paper develops models for better HFT and algorithmic trading.
problem Inaccurate LOB dynamics in financial markets.
method Semi-Markov and Hawkes jump-diffusion models for LOB dynamics.
result Improved trading strategies through precise model application.
Optimal trading strategy with unobservable pricing errors for co-integrated assets.
problem Dynamic portfolio optimization of convergence trading with unobservable pricing errors.
method Modeling of convergence trading strategy with unobservable Markov-modulated pricing errors, extending Liu and Timmermann (2013) model.
result Characterization of optimal portfolio strategies in full and partial information settings.
Trading strategies are limited by position limits, leading to a finite number of unique strategies.
problem Limiting the number of long and short positions in trading strategies.
method Formulas and distributions derived for the number of unique trading strategies, transactions, and do-nothing actions.
result A discrete distribution of actions and their properties are presented.
A deep Q-learning strategy optimizes portfolio trading efficiency.
problem Optimizing dynamic portfolio allocation schemes.
method Formulated a Markov decision process model with deep Q-learning for discrete combinatorial actions.
result Outperforms benchmark strategies in real-world trading simulations.
We devise a USDCHF trading strategy using the dynamics of gold as a filter. Our strategy involves modelling both USDCHF and gold using a coupled hidden Markov model (CHMM). The observations will be indicators, RSI and CCI, which will be used as triggers for our trading signals. Upon decoding the model in each iteration…
Paper optimizes energy trading on DA markets using RL.
problem Volatility and randomness in renewable energy sources.
method Markov Decision Process, reinforcement learning, evolutionary algorithm.
result RL-based strategy generates highest market profits.
The study uses State Switching Markov Autoregressive models to identify and predict market regimes.
problem Adapting to abrupt changes in financial markets and identifying stable investment strategies.
method State Switching Markov Autoregressive models and Wyckoff Price Regimes.
result A dynamically adaptive trading system that outperforms traditional alphas.
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
problem Optimizing VIX futures trading based on term structure.
method Assumes VIX futures term structure follows a Markov model. Uses a deep neural network to model the functional dependence between VIX futures curve, positions, and expected utility.
result Backtests show reasonable portfolio performance and optimal long/short positions.
New framework for pricing derivatives in Hermite markets with reduced arbitrage opportunities.
problem Reducing arbitrage opportunities in Hermite markets.
method Introducing a strategy-specific arbitrage tax on hedging portfolio volume acceleration.
result Transformed Hermite markets with arbitrage opportunities into markets without arbitrage opportunities.
Reinforcement learning improves trading performance on stock exchanges.
problem Optimizing trading strategies on stock exchanges using machine learning.
method Markov model, asynchronous advantage actor-critic method, neural networks, recurrent layers.
result Best trading strategy for RTS Index futures achieved a 66% annual profit.
Strict local martingales may admit arbitrage opportunities with respect to the class of simple trading strategies. (Since there is no possibility of using doubling strategies in this framework, the losses are not assumed to be bounded from below.) We show that for a class of non-negative strict local martingales, the s…
We study optimal trade execution strategies in financial markets with discrete order flow. The agent has a finite liquidation horizon and must minimize price impact given a random number of incoming trade counterparties. Assuming that the order flow N is given by a Poisson process, we give a full analysis of the prop…
Develops optimal liquidation strategies with stochastic price impact.
problem Optimal liquidation under price impact with stochastic parameters.
method Coefficient expansion on Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, solving PDEs for value function and optimal strategy.
result Closed-form approximations to value function and optimal liquidation strategy.
Study analyzes stock order transitions during US-China trade war using Markov chains.
problem Understanding order dynamics during extreme macroeconomic events.
method First-order time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain model.
result Active participation by different traders during high volatility days, influencing market outcomes.
Optimal futures trading strategy in a changing market model.
problem Dynamic trading in a regime-switching market.
method Utility maximization approach with HJB equations reduced to linear ODEs.
result Optimal futures positions and portfolio value across market regimes.
Study optimal liquidation strategies under partial information in high-frequency trading.
problem Optimal liquidation strategies in high-frequency trading with incomplete information.
method Modeling price formation through Hawkes processes, incorporating liquidity as a hidden Markov process, and formulating as an impulse control problem.
result Development of an algorithm to approximate optimal liquidation strategies.
The paper proposes a new order slicing strategy to reduce market impact in large-volume trading.
problem Significant market impact and slippage in large-volume trading.
method Volatility-volume-based order slicing strategy using Exponential Weighted Moving Average and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations.
result Improves trade execution efficiency and reduces market impact.
In this research, we develop a trading strategy for the discrete-time optimal liquidation problem of large order trading with different market microstructures in an illiquid market. In this framework, the flow of orders can be viewed as a point process with stochastic intensity. We model the price impact as a linear fu…
Optimizes trading strategy considering alpha decay and transaction costs.
problem Maximizing reward in a multi-period portfolio with transaction costs and alpha decay.
method Formulated as an infinite horizon Markov Decision Process, solved using a modified value iteration algorithm with convergence proof and asymptotic analysis.
result Characterized optimal trading policy that maximizes average expected reward.
Modeling trading volume curves using hierarchical Poisson processes.
problem Predicting trading volume curves for financial instruments.
method Hierarchical Poisson process model based on hierarchical Dirichlet process with MCMC algorithm.
result Demonstrated scalability on NASDAQ stocks, including Apple.
This paper studies the optimal VIX futures trading problems under a regime-switching model. We consider the VIX as mean reversion dynamics with dependence on the regime that switches among a finite number of states. For the trading strategies, we analyze the timings and sequences of the investor's market participation,…
In this work, we study a dynamic portfolio optimization problem related to pairs trading, which is an investment strategy that matches a long position in one security with a short position in another security with similar characteristics. The relationship between pairs, called a spread, is modeled by a Gaussian mean-re…
Hidden Markov model predicts profitable statistical arbitrage in Shanghai crude oil futures.
problem Statistical arbitrage opportunities in international crude oil futures markets.
method Hidden Markov model for cointegration spread, mean-reverting regime-switching process.
result Statistical arbitrage strategies involving Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable.
Paper finds optimal selling rule for pairs trading with stock constraints.
problem Identifying the best time to sell in pairs trading of stocks.
method Optimal pairs-trading selling rule with constraints on trading.
result Closed-form solution for optimal policy determined by a threshold curve.
Optimizes high-frequency trading strategies in limit order books.
problem Impact of recent orders on future order submission rates.
method Discrete Markov chain model for LOB dynamics, Markov decision process for optimal order placement.
result Optimal policy using limit, cancellations, and market orders to maximize execution price.
Market manipulation is a strategy used by traders to alter the price of financial securities. One type of manipulation is based on the process of buying or selling assets by using several trading strategies, among them spoofing is a popular strategy and is considered illegal by market regulators. Some promising tools h…
The paper analyzes trading strategies using exponential moving averages.
problem Investigating trading strategies based on exponential moving averages.
method Logarithmic utility maximization and long-term growth rate maximization problems with closed-form solutions for specific drift models.
result Closed-form solutions for optimal ExpMA strategies under specific drift models.
QTNet uses deep reinforcement learning to automate trading strategies.
problem Handling noisy and high-frequency financial data, balancing exploration and exploitation.
method QTNet employs deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning to autonomously formulate trading strategies.
result QTNet demonstrates proficiency in extracting robust market features and adaptability to diverse conditions.
We analyze a tractable model of a limit order book on short time scales, where the dynamics are driven by stochastic fluctuations between supply and demand. We establish the existence of a limiting distribution for the highest bid, and for the lowest ask, where the limiting distributions are confined between two thresh…
This paper proposes a new randomized strategy for adaptive MCMC using Bayesian optimization. This approach applies to non-differentiable objective functions and trades off exploration and exploitation to reduce the number of potentially costly objective function evaluations. We demonstrate the strategy in the complex s…
In this work, we consider the optimal portfolio selection problem under hard constraints on trading volume amounts when the dynamics of the risky asset returns are governed by a discrete-time approximation of the Markov-modulated geometric Brownian motion. The states of Markov chain are interpreted as the states of an …
Large trades in a financial market are usually split into smaller parts and traded incrementally over extended periods of time. We address these large trades as hidden orders. In order to identify and characterize hidden orders we fit hidden Markov models to the time series of the sign of the tick by tick inventory var…
The paper uses PCA and HMM to forecast stock returns outperforming buy-and-hold.
problem Predicting stock returns accurately.
method Applied PCA to covariance matrix of S&P 500 stocks, used HMM on principal components, and forecasted stock returns.
result The model outperforms buy-and-hold strategy in terms of annualized Sharpe ratio.
A new system improves smart beta portfolio performance by reducing drawdowns and enhancing risk-adjusted returns.
problem Cyclicality and short-term drawdowns in smart beta strategies.
method Dynamic asset allocation using Feature Saliency Hidden Markov Models (FSHMM).
result FSHMM improves risk-adjusted returns by up to 60% annually compared to full feature HMMs.
The paper solves option pricing and hedging for financial time series with hidden Markov models.
problem Option pricing and hedging for financial time series with hidden Markov models.
method Solves the discrete time mean-variance hedging problem for autoregressive hidden Markov models.
result The proposed model outperforms simpler models in out-of-sample hedging and option pricing.
Investigates JM for reducing downside risk in market regimes.
problem Mitigating downside risk during market downturns.
method Statistical jump model for identifying market regimes, optimizing penalty for state transitions.
result JM-guided strategies outperform traditional models in reducing risk and enhancing returns.
Robo-advisors use MPC to create dynamic investment strategies.
problem Static allocation methods limit robo-advisors' effectiveness.
method Combines MPC with Hidden Markov Model and Black-Litterman for dynamic asset allocation.
result MPC-based strategies outperform static approaches in dynamic and risk-budgeting criteria.
This work models market regimes using CTMSTOU and simulates trading policies.
problem Defining and understanding market regimes in finance.
method Discrete event time multi-agent market simulation with CTMSTOU model.
result Illustrates the importance of regime-awareness in trading policies.
Technical trading rules and linear regressive models are often used by practitioners to find trends in financial data. However, these models are unsuited to find non-linearly separable patterns. We propose a decision tree forecasting model that has the flexibility to capture arbitrary patterns. To illustrate, we constr…
Develops RL for optimal market-making in non-Markov processes.
problem Optimal market-making in non-Markov price processes.
method Deep reinforcement learning with Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) algorithm.
result Optimal strategy for market-making in semi-Markov and Hawkes Jump-Diffusion dynamics.
Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) is an investment strategy designed to give participation in the performance of a risky asset while protecting the invested capital. This protection is however not perfect and the gap risk must be quantified. CPPI strategies are path-dependent and may have American exercise…
Hierarchical hidden Markov models predict market trends in financial time series.
problem Misinterpretation of short-term price fluctuations as long-term trend changes.
method Hierarchical hidden Markov models to capture both short- and long-term trends.
result Hierarchical models provide a comprehensive picture of financial markets.
AlphaCFG discovers alpha factors using grammar-guided search.
problem Discovering formulaic alpha factors in finance.
method AlphaCFG uses a grammar-based framework to define and discover alpha factors with syntactic and semantic constraints.
result AlphaCFG outperforms state-of-the-art methods in trading profitability and efficiency.
We propose a microstructural modeling framework for studying optimal market making policies in a FIFO (first in first out) limit order book (LOB). In this context, the limit orders, market orders, and cancel orders arrivals in the LOB are modeled as Cox point processes with intensities that only depend on the state of …
Improved DRQN-ARBR model for better stock trading performance.
problem Irrational investor behavior impacts stock market efficiency.
method DRQN-ARBR model with LSTM layer and ARBR sentiment indicators.
result Significantly improved stock trading performance.
We study a an optimal high frequency trading problem within a market microstructure model designed to be a good compromise between accuracy and tractability. The stock price is driven by a Markov Renewal Process (MRP), while market orders arrive in the limit order book via a point process correlated with the stock pric…
New trading strategy beats traditional grid in crypto markets.
problem Low expected return of traditional grid trading strategy.
method Dynamic Grid Trading (DGT) strategy that adapts to market conditions.
result DGT strategy outperforms traditional grid and buy-and-hold strategies.