A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper analyzes strategic irreversible investments with novel dynamic strategies.
The paper addresses dynamic capital structure models with defaultable debt, proving existence and uniqueness.
A \emph{new} notion of equilibrium, which we call \emph{strong equilibrium}, is introduced for time-inconsistent stopping problems in continuous time. Compared to the existing notions introduced in ArXiv: 1502.03998 and ArXiv: 1709.05181, which in this paper are called \emph{mild equilibrium} and \emph{weak equilibrium…
Algorithm learns NE in imperfect information games with imperfect feedback.
Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) has found success in settings like poker which have both terminal states and perfect recall. We seek to understand how to relax these requirements. As a first step, we introduce a simple algorithm, local no-regret learning (LONR), which uses a Q-learning-like update rule to allo…
We study an infinite-horizon discrete-time optimal stopping problem under non-exponential discounting. A new method, which we call the iterative approach, is developed to find subgame perfect Nash equilibria. When the discount function induces decreasing impatience, we establish the existence of an equilibrium through …
Perfect adaptation in systems is identified and tested using graphical tools.
DREAM learns optimal strategies in imperfect games without needing a simulator.
The paper analyzes trade execution strategies for large traders in a stochastic market environment.
A moment constraint that limits the number of dividends in the optimal dividend problem is suggested. This leads to a new type of time-inconsistent stochastic impulse control problem. First, the optimal solution in the precommitment sense is derived. Second, the problem is formulated as an intrapersonal sequential dyna…
Study efficient offline RL in Markov games with general models.
Investor selects portfolios based on news attention in a hidden Markov model.
The existence of stationary Markov perfect equilibria in stochastic games is shown under a general condition called "(decomposable) coarser transition kernels". This result covers various earlier existence results on correlated equilibria, noisy stochastic games, stochastic games with finite actions and state-independe…
Study Nash equilibrium between broker and trader in a lit exchange with price impact.
This manuscript contributes a general and practical framework for casting a Markov process model of a system at equilibrium as a structural causal model, and carrying out counterfactual inference. Markov processes mathematically describe the mechanisms in the system, and predict the system's equilibrium behavior upon i…
Unbiased wealth exchanges always lead to inequality.
Graphical models are popular statistical tools which are used to represent dependent or causal complex systems. Statistically equivalent causal or directed graphical models are said to belong to a Markov equivalent class. It is of great interest to describe and understand the space of such classes. However, with curren…
Inspired by Strotz's consistent planning strategy, we formulate the infinite horizon mean-variance stopping problem as a subgame perfect Nash equilibrium in order to determine time consistent strategies with no regret. Equilibria among stopping times or randomized stopping times may not exist. This motivates us to cons…
Optimal algorithm for two-player zero-sum games with linear parameterization.
The paper explores triangulations of spheres and projective spaces, focusing on Hopf triangulations and equilibrium structures.
Proposes a robust equilibrium strategy for mean-variance portfolio selection.
We solve a continuous-time game-theoretic problem for Kihlstrom-Mirman preferences.
This paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market within a continuous time stochastic economy. The investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switch according to a finite…
This paper improves sample efficiency for learning equilibria in multi-player games.
Efficient reinforcement learning for simultaneous-move zero-sum games using optimistic value iteration.
New assumptions and algorithm solve offline two-player zero-sum Markov games.
Mathematical methods of population genetics and framework of exchangeability provide a Markov chain model for analysis and interpretation of stochastic behaviour of equity markets, explaining, in particular, market shape formation, statistical equilibrium and temporal stability of market weights.
Given a hyperbolic domain, the nearest point retraction is a conformally natural homotopy equivalence from the domain to the boundary of the convex core of its complement. Marden and Markovic showed that if the domain is uniformly perfect, then there exists a conformally natural quasiconformal map which admits a bounde…
Algorithm finds Nash equilibria in complex games with function approximation.
Algorithm finds ε-equilibrium policies for multi-agent Markov games with hidden low-rank structure.
Modeling reinsurance market, we find subgame perfect Nash equilibria.
This paper formulates a model of utility for a continuous time framework that captures the decision-maker's concern with ambiguity about both volatility and drift. Corresponding extensions of some basic results in asset pricing theory are presented. First, we derive arbitrage-free pricing rules based on hedging argumen…
In a continuous time stochastic economy, this paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market in which the representative investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switches…
New RL algorithms find SNE in Markov games with myopic followers.
A family of Markov blankets in a faithful Bayesian network satisfies the symmetry and consistency properties. In this paper, we draw a bijection between families of consistent Markov blankets and moral graphs. We define the new concepts of weak recursive simpliciality and perfect elimination kits. We prove that they ar…
Our study shows that many firms would accumulate at zero output level (namely, Bankruptcy status) if a perfectly competitive market reaches full employment (namely, those people who should obtain employment have obtained employment). As a result, appearance of economic crisis is determined by two points; that is, (a). …
Model equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets with uncertainty.
We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is generally unknown and hard to compute, which prevents the application of established eq…
Improved sampling for gauge theory with SNFs.
Algorithm learns robust equilibrium in online Markov games with interactive data.
New algorithm improves sample efficiency for zero-sum Markov games.
We show that the nearest point retraction is a uniform quasi-isometry from the Thurston metric on a hyperbolic domain in the Riemann sphere to the boundary of the convex hull of its complement. As a corollary, one obtains explicit bounds on the quasi-isometry constant of the nearest point retraction with respect to the…
An unconventional approach for optimal stopping under model ambiguity is introduced. Besides ambiguity itself, we take into account how ambiguity-averse an agent is. This inclusion of ambiguity attitude, via an -maxmin nonlinear expectation, renders the stopping problem time-inconsistent. We look for subgame perfect…
Tax systems ensure sustainable economic development by adjusting production technologies and gross output volumes.
Proves simplicity of Lyapunov exponents for specific Anosov flows.
New findings show pure strategy equilibria are more robust in a war of attrition game.
Economic integration, globalization and financial crises represent examples of processes whose understanding requires the analysis of the underlying network structure. Of particular interest is establishing whether a real economic network is in a state of (quasi)stationary equilibrium, i.e. characterized by smooth stru…
Paper connects RL and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics for entropy-regularized RL.