A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper constructs Markov partitions for geodesic flow on hyperbolic surfaces.
This thesis classifies pseudo-Anosov homeomorphisms using geometric Markov partitions.
Improved sampling for network community detection.
We propose moment-based variational inference as a flexible framework for approximate smoothing of latent Markov jump processes. The main ingredient of our approach is to partition the set of all transitions of the latent process into classes. This allows to express the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the approxima…
We study approximations of the partition function of dense graphical models. Partition functions of graphical models play a fundamental role is statistical physics, in statistics and in machine learning. Two of the main methods for approximating the partition function are Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Variational Method…
We learn the structure of a Markov Network between two groups of random variables from joint observations. Since modelling and learning the full MN structure may be hard, learning the links between two groups directly may be a preferable option. We introduce a novel concept called the \emph{partitioned ratio} whose fac…
New MCMC method tackles label-switching problem for clustering.
Finding the reduced-dimensional structure is critical to understanding complex networks. Existing approaches such as spectral clustering are applicable only when the full network is explicitly observed. In this paper, we focus on the online factorization and partition of implicit large-scale networks based on observati…
This paper proposes a stochastic model using the concept of Markov chains for the inter-state transitions of the millisecond order quasi-stable phase synchronized patterns or synchrostates, found in multi-channel Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. First and second order transition probability matrices are estimated fo…
Proves simplicity of Lyapunov exponents for specific Anosov flows.
This paper proves properties of uniformly hyperbolic sets and constructs Markov partitions.
The Gibbs sampler is a particularly popular Markov chain used for learning and inference problems in Graphical Models (GMs). These tasks are computationally intractable in general, and the Gibbs sampler often suffers from slow mixing. In this paper, we study the Swendsen-Wang dynamics which is a more sophisticated Mark…
The Mondrian process represents an elegant and powerful approach for space partition modelling. However, as it restricts the partitions to be axis-aligned, its modelling flexibility is limited. In this work, we propose a self-consistent Binary Space Partitioning (BSP)-Tree process to generalize the Mondrian process. Th…
Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain from empirical trajectories. Through the lens of spectral decomposition, we study…
The fundamental aim of clustering algorithms is to partition data points. We consider tasks where the discovered partition is allowed to vary with some covariate such as space or time. One approach would be to use fragmentation-coagulation processes, but these, being Markov processes, are restricted to linear or tree s…
A key task in Bayesian machine learning is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). One prevalent example of this is sampling posteriors in parametric distributions, such as latent-variable generative models. However sampling (even very approxim…
Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to obtain. Unbiased estimates of 1/Z allow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of "d…
Indian Buffet Process based models are an elegant way for discovering underlying features within a data set, but inference in such models can be slow. Inferring underlying features using Markov chain Monte Carlo either relies on an uncollapsed representation, which leads to poor mixing, or on a collapsed representation…
SwISS improves scalability of Bayesian inference for large datasets.
Suppose that one particular block in a stochastic block model is of interest, but block labels are only observed for a few of the vertices in the network. Utilizing a graph realized from the model and the observed block labels, the vertex nomination task is to order the vertices with unobserved block labels into a rank…
We propose a relaxation-based approximate inference algorithm that samples near-MAP configurations of a binary pairwise Markov random field. We experiment on MAP inference tasks in several restricted Boltzmann machines. We also use our underlying sampler to estimate the log-partition function of restricted Boltzmann ma…
Quantum algorithm speeds up Gibbs partition function estimation.
In this note we provide detailed derivations of two versions of small-variance asymptotics for hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) mixture models and the HDP hidden Markov model (HDP-HMM, a.k.a. the infinite HMM). We include derivations for the probabilities of certain CRP and CRF partitions, which are of more general…
New method reduces Gibbs partition function estimation complexity.
Paper introduces XBART for nonlinear regression, outperforming XGBoost.
We propose a restricted collapsed draw (RCD) sampler, a general Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler of simultaneous draws from a hierarchical Chinese restaurant process (HCRP) with restriction. Models that require simultaneous draws from a hierarchical Dirichlet process with restriction, such as infinite Hidden markov mod…
SPAQL improves RL by adaptively partitioning state-action space and learning a time-invariant policy.
New method fits sparse Markov models to categorical time series using convex clustering.
Markov random fields (MRFs) are difficult to evaluate as generative models because computing the test log-probabilities requires the intractable partition function. Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is widely used to estimate MRF partition functions, and often yields quite accurate results. However, AIS is prone to ov…
Products of Hidden Markov Models(PoHMMs) are an interesting class of generative models which have received little attention since their introduction. This maybe in part due to their more computationally expensive gradient-based learning algorithm,and the intractability of computing the log likelihood of sequences under…
Paper improves variational inference on Boolean hypercube using quantum methods.
Due to the escalating growth of big data sets in recent years, new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parallel computing methods have been developed. These methods partition large data sets by observations into subsets. However, for Bayesian nested hierarchical models, typically only a few parameters are common f…
Approximate inference in high-dimensional, discrete probabilistic models is a central problem in computational statistics and machine learning. This paper describes discrete particle variational inference (DPVI), a new approach that combines key strengths of Monte Carlo, variational and search-based techniques. DPVI is…
We propose a black-box algorithm called {\it Adversarial Variational Inference and Learning} (AdVIL) to perform inference and learning on a general Markov random field (MRF). AdVIL employs two variational distributions to approximately infer the latent variables and estimate the partition function of an MRF, respective…
Reweighted ALPS improves sampling from multimodal distributions using warm start points.
Paper analyzes symbolic-dynamics inspired Markov modeling for time-series data.
A key task in Bayesian statistics is sampling from distributions that are only specified up to a partition function (i.e., constant of proportionality). However, without any assumptions, sampling (even approximately) can be #P-hard, and few works have provided "beyond worst-case" guarantees for such settings. For log-c…
This paper presents a technique for reduced-order Markov modeling for compact representation of time-series data. In this work, symbolic dynamics-based tools have been used to infer an approximate generative Markov model. The time-series data are first symbolized by partitioning the continuous measurement space of the …
DNFS trains efficient samplers for discrete distributions using locally equivariant Transformers.
In this paper, we address the inverse problem, or the statistical machine learning problem, in Markov random fields with a non-parametric pair-wise energy function with continuous variables. The inverse problem is formulated by maximum likelihood estimation. The exact treatment of maximum likelihood estimation is intra…
New method improves high-dimensional Bayesian optimization efficiency using MCMC.
Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) schemes giving the correct equilibrium distribution over param…
Sequential decision making in the presence of uncertainty and stochastic dynamics gives rise to distributions over state/action trajectories in reinforcement learning (RL) and optimal control problems. This observation has led to a variety of connections between RL and inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs)…
Evaluating the log determinant of a positive definite matrix is ubiquitous in machine learning. Applications thereof range from Gaussian processes, minimum-volume ellipsoids, metric learning, kernel learning, Bayesian neural networks, Determinental Point Processes, Markov random fields to partition functions of discret…
Due to the intractable partition function, the exact likelihood function for a Markov random field (MRF), in many situations, can only be approximated. Major approximation approaches include pseudolikelihood and Laplace approximation. In this paper, we propose a novel way of approximating the likelihood function throug…
Characterizes Bayesian networks up to unconditional equivalence.
A neural network model minimizes region-based free energy for faster inference in MRFs.
BiDAG R package learns and samples Bayesian network structures efficiently.