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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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58116174232 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for Markov chain kernel

New concentration inequality for U-statistics of Markov chains.

problem Proving a concentration inequality for U-statistics of order two in uniformly ergodic Markov chains.
method Inductive analysis using martingale techniques, uniform ergodicity, Nummelin splitting, and Bernstein's inequality.
result Recovery of convergence rate for U-statistics of independent random variables and canonical kernels, with improved results for dependent kernels.

The paper analyzes covariate shift in nonparametric regression with Markovian data.

problem Covariate shift in regression problems with Markovian data.
method Extension of nonparametric convergence rates to Markovian dependence structures, using Hölder smoothness assumptions and similarity measures.
result Precise convergence rates for Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimators under specific Markovian conditions.

The paper develops new inequalities for Markov chain sums, linking them to mixing time.

problem Establishing concentration inequalities for Markov chain sums.
method Developed novel concentration inequalities for geometrically ergodic Markov chains, linking bounds to mixing time constants.
result Explicit bounds for additive functionals of Markov chains, linked to Rosenthal inequality constants and mixing properties.

We introduce a new geometric approach that constructs a transition kernel of Markov chain. Our method always minimizes the average rejection rate and even reduce it to zero in many relevant cases, which cannot be achieved by conventional methods, such as the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm or the heat bath algorithm (Gib…

2011-06-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper improves generalization bounds for multi-kernel learning with mixed datasets.

problem Improving generalization for multi-kernel learning with mixed Markov chain datasets.
method Developed novel generalization bounds with O(logm)O(\sqrt{\log m}) and O(1/n)O(1/\sqrt{n}) dependencies.
result Added terms compensate for dependency among samples in mixed datasets.

Extended elliptical slice sampling for infinite-dimensional spaces, proving reversibility.

problem Proving reversibility of elliptical slice sampling in infinite-dimensional spaces.
method Extended elliptical slice sampling to infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert spaces, providing an alternative proof of reversibility.
result The approach yields a positive semi-definite Markov operator, proving reversibility.

Existing Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are either based on general-purpose and domain-agnostic schemes which can lead to slow convergence, or hand-crafting of problem-specific proposals by an expert. We propose A-NICE-MC, a novel method to train flexible parametric Markov chain kernels to produce samples with…

2017-06-23abs ↗pdf ↗

A new method calculates intrinsic effective sample size for manifold-valued data.

problem Challenges in choosing effective sample size for manifold-valued data.
method Proposes an intrinsic effective sample size based on kernel discrepancy.
result Establishes an exact finite-sample risk interpretation and consistency of the estimator.

New bounds for SMC show its advantage over MCMC in multimodal distributions.

problem Estimating expectations under multimodal distributions with slow global mixing.
method Proves finite sample complexities for SMC with local mixing times, addressing bias through sequential resampling.
result SMC provides fully polynomial time approximation for multimodal problems.

Transformers with multiple layers learn to estimate bigram distributions, while single-layer models often get stuck in unigram local minima.

problem Understanding the sequential modeling capabilities of transformers using Markov chains.
method Introducing a new framework to analyze transformers via Markov chains, characterizing their loss landscapes.
result Single-layer transformers often get stuck in local minima representing the unigram distribution, while deeper models reliably converge to the ground-truth bigram.

This paper develops tools for nonreversible MCMC with convergence guarantees.

problem Designing nonreversible MCMC kernels with convergence guarantees.
method Develops tools for nonreversible Markov kernels using conditional invertible transforms.
result Ensures nonreversible kernels have the desired invariance property and lead to convergent algorithms.

BARK optimizes black-box functions using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.

problem Bayesian optimization of complex, black-box functions with uncertainty quantification.
method BART Kernel using tree agreement for posterior over piecewise-constant functions, explored using MCMC.
result BARK obtains samples of Gaussian processes for function distributions, enabling acquisition functions for optimization.

Let K be an irreducible and reversible Markov kernel on a finite set X. We construct a metric W on the set of probability measures on X and show that with respect to this metric, the law of the continuous time Markov chain evolves as the gradient flow of the entropy. This result is a discrete counterpart of the Wassers…

2011-02-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Model detects market anomalies using a Hawkes process with hidden Markov chain.

problem Detecting high-frequency market manipulation in cryptocurrency trades.
method Developed a Markov-modulated Hawkes process with piecewise constant excitation kernels.
result Demonstrated the model's effectiveness in detecting suspicious trading activities.

Stein importance sampling is a widely applicable technique based on kernelized Stein discrepancy, which corrects the output of approximate sampling algorithms by reweighting the empirical distribution of the samples. A general analysis of this technique is conducted for the previously unconsidered setting where samples…

2020-01-25abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose kernel sequential Monte Carlo (KSMC), a framework for sampling from static target densities. KSMC is a family of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that are based on building emulator models of the current particle system in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. We here focus on modelling nonlinear covariance s…

2015-10-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Bootstrap method for Markov chains in reinforcement learning.

problem Distributional consistency in finite controlled Markov chains with unknown control policies.
method Model-based bootstrap with novel LLN and CLT for visitation counts and transition increments.
result Asymptotically valid confidence intervals for value and QQ-functions in offline RL.

HDT improves MCMC on graphs with history-dependent sampling.

problem Efficient sampling from target distributions on general graphs with low computational overhead.
method History-driven target (HDT) framework that replaces the original target distribution with a history-dependent one.
result Near-zero variance performance and scalability to large graphs with memory-efficient implementation.

We introduce a conceptually novel structured prediction model, GPstruct, which is kernelized, non-parametric and Bayesian, by design. We motivate the model with respect to existing approaches, among others, conditional random fields (CRFs), maximum margin Markov networks (M3N), and structured support vector machines (S…

2013-07-15abs ↗pdf ↗

New method decomposes Markov chain rewards into persistent and transient components.

problem Ambiguity in classical evaluation methods for Markov chains with reducible and periodic states.
method Minimal exact quotient by the real peripheral invariant subspace, decomposing rewards into persistent and transient components.
result Exact comparison with classical methods shows that the new decomposition reallocates the same information, making persistent modes explicit.

Compress++ speeds up distribution compression to near-linear time.

problem Accurately summarize a probability distribution using a small number of points efficiently.
method Introduces Compress++, a meta-procedure to speed up any thinning algorithm.
result Achieves n\sqrt{n} points with O(logn/n)\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{\log n/n}) integration error in O(nlog3n)\mathcal{O}(n \log^3 n) time and O(nlog2n)\mathcal{O}( \sqrt{n} \log^2 n ) space.

The paper provides concentration inequalities for Markov chain variance estimators.

problem Estimating the variance of Markov chains with concentration properties.
method Martingale decomposition method for uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chains.
result Explicit control of the p-th moment of the OBM estimator difference and dependence on p and mixing time.

Study online learning in RKHS with dependent processes, focusing on \(β\)- and \(φ\)-mixing.

problem Online learning in RKHS with dependent data.
method Online regularized learning algorithm in RKHS, analyzing \(β\)- and \(φ\)-mixing sequences.
result Probabilistic upper bounds and convergence rates for mixing coefficients.

Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a systematic way of combining the two main tools used for Monte Carlo statistical inference: sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We present a novel PMCMC algorithm that we refer to as particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling (PGAS). PGAS provides t…

2014-01-03abs ↗pdf ↗

Reduces identity testing of reversible Markov chains to simpler symmetric chain tests.

problem Testing identity of reversible Markov chains from a single trajectory.
method Using lumping-congruent Markov embeddings, the problem is simplified to testing symmetric chains over a larger state space.
result Achieves state-of-the-art sample complexity for identity testing.

Kernel methods summarize and integrate posterior similarity matrices from Bayesian clustering.

problem Summarizing and integrating posterior similarity matrices from Bayesian clustering.
method Positive semi-definite PSMs, kernel matrices, kernel methods, combining kernels.
result Kernel methods effectively summarize and integrate posterior similarity matrices.

Stochastic gradient methods are the workhorse (algorithms) of large-scale optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing, and other computational sciences and engineering. This paper studies Markov chain gradient descent, a variant of stochastic gradient descent where the random samples are taken on the t…

2018-09-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Study nonparametric estimator for Markov chain transition matrices in offline setting.

problem Estimating transition matrices of finite controlled Markov chains from logged data.
method Developed sample complexity bounds and conditions for minimaxity.
result Achieving certain statistical risk requires balancing mixing properties and sample size.

The paper advances U-statistics in dependent settings, improving spectral estimation and goodness-of-fit tests.

problem Non-asymptotic analysis of U-statistics in dependent Markov chain settings.
method Proved new concentration and exponential inequalities for U-statistics, applied to spectral estimation, online algorithms, and goodness-of-fit tests.
result Established new results for spectral estimation, online algorithms, and goodness-of-fit tests in Markov chain settings.

Proposes a new model for joint probability distributions in computer vision.

problem Limitation of existing models in meeting diverse downstream tasks.
method Uses parametric conditional probability distributions for each group of variables conditioned on the rest.
result Models can be used for any downstream task without task-specific design.