We investigate probabilistic graphical models that allow for both cycles and latent variables. For this we introduce directed graphs with hyperedges (HEDGes), generalizing and combining both marginalized directed acyclic graphs (mDAGs) that can model latent (dependent) variables, and directed mixed graphs (DMGs) that c…
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48 results for “Markov Properties”
The article proposes a deep learning method to test and infer the Markov property in time series data.
problem Testing and inferring the Markov property in high-dimensional time series data.
method Deep conditional generative learning to estimate conditional density functions and derive a doubly robust test statistic.
result The test controls the type-I error asymptotically and has power approaching one.
In this paper, we unify the Markov theory of a variety of different types of graphs used in graphical Markov models by introducing the class of loopless mixed graphs, and show that all independence models induced by -separation on such graphs are compositional graphoids. We focus in particular on the subclass of rib…
Detecting topological properties of Markov compacta with combinatorial properties of their diagramsmath.GT
We develop a formalism that allows us to describe Markov compacta with finite sets of diagrams that are building blocks of the entire sequence. This encodes complex, continuous spaces with discrete collections of combinatorial objects. We show that topological properties of the limit (such as -connectedness, local $…
Researchers created a continuous Markov martingale that mimics Brownian motion but lacks the strong Markov property.
problem Constructing a continuous Markov martingale with Brownian marginals that misses the strong Markov property.
method Developed a new approach to create a continuous Markov martingale that differs from Brownian motion in terms of the strong Markov property.
result A continuous Markov martingale with Brownian marginals that lacks the strong Markov property was successfully constructed.
Study nonparametric estimator for Markov chain transition matrices in offline setting.
problem Estimating transition matrices of finite controlled Markov chains from logged data.
method Developed sample complexity bounds and conditions for minimaxity.
result Achieving certain statistical risk requires balancing mixing properties and sample size.
Study improves generalization bounds for equivariant networks on Markov data.
problem Challenges in integrating equivariance with Markov dependencies in neural networks.
method Applied McDiarmid's inequality and computed covering number using group theory.
result Derived upper bound on Rademacher complexity for equivariant neural networks on Markov datasets.
We introduce Markov substitute processes, a new model at the crossroad of statistics and formal grammars, and prove its main property : Markov substitute processes with a given support form an exponential family.
We show that, for generative classifiers, conditional independence corresponds to linear constraints for the induced discrimination functions. Discrimination functions of undirected Markov network classifiers can thus be characterized by sets of linear constraints. These constraints are represented by a second order fi…
We study discretizations of polynomial processes using finite state Markov processes satisfying suitable moment matching conditions. The states of these Markov processes together with their transition probabilities can be interpreted as Markov cubature rules. The polynomial property allows us to study such rules using …
New method speeds up sampling of Markov random fields.
problem Efficient sampling of Markov random fields is computationally expensive.
method Introduced a new class of Markov random fields linked to Gaussian Markov Random fields for faster sampling.
result At least 35x faster and 37x less energy consumption compared to Gibbs sampling.
Regime-switching models, in particular Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) where the switching is driven by an unobservable Markov chain, are widely-used in financial applications, due to their tractability and good econometric properties. In this work we consider HMMs in continuous time with both constant and switching volati…
New entropy flow method extends generalization bounds for all Markov algorithms.
problem Understanding generalization error for Markov algorithms.
method Unified framework using continuous-time approximation and modified logarithmic Sobolev inequalities.
result Established new connections between generalization error and ergodic properties of Markov processes.
We systematically investigate the problem of representing Markov chains by families of random maps, and which regularity of these maps can be achieved depending on the properties of the probability measures. Our key idea is to use techniques from optimal transport to select optimal such maps. Optimal transport theory a…
Study of Markov-modulated affine processes for richer models in finance.
problem Richer models in various applications.
method Martingale problem approach, characteristic function derivation, mathematical properties study.
result Existence and characteristic function of Markov-modulated affine processes.
New algorithm learns causal structures by intersecting Markov blankets.
problem Learning causal relationships from data.
method Endogenous and Exogenous Markov Blankets Intersection (EEMBI) algorithm.
result EEMBI-PC integrates PC algorithm steps for improved accuracy.
The paper provides concentration inequalities for Markov chain variance estimators.
problem Estimating the variance of Markov chains with concentration properties.
method Martingale decomposition method for uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chains.
result Explicit control of the p-th moment of the OBM estimator difference and dependence on p and mixing time.
This paper develops tools for nonreversible MCMC with convergence guarantees.
problem Designing nonreversible MCMC kernels with convergence guarantees.
method Develops tools for nonreversible Markov kernels using conditional invertible transforms.
result Ensures nonreversible kernels have the desired invariance property and lead to convergent algorithms.
This paper analyzes RMR under Markov-dependent samples, improving understanding of its generalization error.
problem Understanding the generalization error of RMR in Markov-dependent settings.
method Established the upper bound for RMR estimator under Markov-dependent samples, providing a learning rate.
result Markov dependence affects the generalization error, reducing it by a multiplicative factor of the spectral gap.
Continuous-time reinforcement learning: ellipticity enables model-free value function approximationcs.LG
New algorithm learns value and advantage functions for continuous-time Markov processes without structural assumptions.
problem Learning value and advantage functions for continuous-time Markov processes without structural assumptions.
method Proposes Sobolev-prox fitted -learning algorithm based on Hilbert-space positive definiteness and boundedness properties of Bellman operators.
result Identifies ellipticity as a key structural property enabling reinforcement learning for Markov diffusions.
Proposes an EM algorithm for high-dimensional Markov-switching VAR models.
problem Estimating regime shifts in high-dimensional time series data.
method Approximate EM algorithm for Markov-switching VAR models.
result Established consistency of the proposed EM algorithm in high dimensions.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo is repeatedly used to analyze the properties of intractable distributions in a convenient way. In this paper we derive conditions for geometric ergodicity of a general class of nonparametric stochastic volatility models with skewness driven by hidden Markov Chain with switching.
We formulate a probabilistic Markov property in discrete time under a dynamic risk framework with minimal assumptions. This is useful for recursive solutions to risk-sensitive versions of dynamic optimisation problems such as optimal prediction, where at each stage the recursion depends on the whole future. The propert…
Study on financial systems using perturbed unimodal maps with heteroscedastic noise.
problem Analyzing systemic risk in financial systems using mathematical models.
method Investigation of one-dimensional unimodal maps perturbed by heteroscedastic noise, proving stability, convergence, and Lyapunov exponent continuity.
result Continuous dependence of average Lyapunov exponent on Markov chain parameters, and Gumbel's law for extreme values.
New method estimates convergence bounds for nonlinear Markov chains.
problem Difficulty in describing properties of nonlinear Markov chains.
method Coupling Markov chains to reconstitute distribution relationships and estimate convergence bounds.
result Estimation of convergence bounds is more precise than existing results.
Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain from empirical trajectories. Through the lens of spectral decomposition, we study…
Two new models for volatility in Markov-switching environments capture financial time-series properties.
problem Modeling volatility in environments with regime switches and exogenous jumps.
method Generalizations of COGARCH and Barndorff-Nielsen-Shephard models using Markov-modulated generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes.
result Models inherit properties of original models and capture stylized facts of financial time-series.
Extended elliptical slice sampling for infinite-dimensional spaces, proving reversibility.
problem Proving reversibility of elliptical slice sampling in infinite-dimensional spaces.
method Extended elliptical slice sampling to infinite-dimensional separable Hilbert spaces, providing an alternative proof of reversibility.
result The approach yields a positive semi-definite Markov operator, proving reversibility.
The Markov assumption (MA) is fundamental to the empirical validity of reinforcement learning. In this paper, we propose a novel Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA in sequential decision making. The proposed test does not assume any parametric form on the joint distribution of the observed data and plays an…
Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are probabilistic models for repulsion. When used to represent the occurrence of random subsets of a finite base set, DPPs allow to model global negative associations in a mathematically elegant and direct way. Discrete DPPs have become popular and computationally tractable models f…
The method of block coordinate gradient descent (BCD) has been a powerful method for large-scale optimization. This paper considers the BCD method that successively updates a series of blocks selected according to a Markov chain. This kind of block selection is neither i.i.d. random nor cyclic. On the other hand, it is…
SGD converges to an invariant distribution with sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential properties.
problem Optimizing smooth and strongly convex objectives using SGD.
method Analysis through Markov chains, focusing on convergence and concentration properties.
result SGD iterates and their invariant limit distribution inherit sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential concentration properties.
New GLPs split Lévy bridges into non-overlapping subprocesses.
problem Creating multivariate stochastic processes with specific properties.
method Defining GLPs by splitting Lévy bridges and using time changes.
result GLPs have terminal values and increments with generalised multivariate Liouville distributions.
A new method scores contextual Markov networks without assuming chordality.
problem Learning structure in contextual Markov networks is hard due to many possible structures.
method Marginal pseudo-likelihood as a consistent structure estimator.
result Marginal pseudo-likelihood yields a consistent structure estimator.
The paper develops new inequalities for Markov chain sums, linking them to mixing time.
problem Establishing concentration inequalities for Markov chain sums.
method Developed novel concentration inequalities for geometrically ergodic Markov chains, linking bounds to mixing time constants.
result Explicit bounds for additive functionals of Markov chains, linked to Rosenthal inequality constants and mixing properties.
Improves MCMC performance with adaptive affine transformations.
problem Improving the performance of Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers.
method Adaptive learning of bijective affine transformations during sampling.
result Adaptive affine transformations improve the quality of samples at low computational cost.
Model credit ratings using economic states with Markov chains.
problem Credit rating migration influenced by economic state changes.
method Developed a Markov chain model for credit ratings conditional on economic states.
result Derived asymptotic behavior of the rating process using Markov theory.
We introduce LAMP: the Linear Additive Markov Process. Transitions in LAMP may be influenced by states visited in the distant history of the process, but unlike higher-order Markov processes, LAMP retains an efficient parametrization. LAMP also allows the specific dependence on history to be learned efficiently from da…
We extend Andersson-Madigan-Perlman chain graphs by (i) relaxing the semidirected acyclity constraint so that only directed cycles are forbidden, and (ii) allowing up to two edges between any pair of nodes. We introduce global, and ordered local and pairwise Markov properties for the new models. We show the equivalence…
Markov models lie at the interface between statistical independence in a probability distribution and graph separation properties. We review model selection and estimation in directed and undirected Markov models with Gaussian parametrization, emphasizing the main similarities and differences. These two model classes a…
Non-negative curvature affects Markov chains' mixing and expansion properties.
problem Understanding the behavior of Markov chains with non-negative curvature.
method Analyzing conductance, displacement, and cutoff phenomenon in sparse Markov chains.
result Non-negatively curved Markov chains exhibit specific, non-standard behavior in terms of mixing and expansion.
A family of Markov blankets in a faithful Bayesian network satisfies the symmetry and consistency properties. In this paper, we draw a bijection between families of consistent Markov blankets and moral graphs. We define the new concepts of weak recursive simpliciality and perfect elimination kits. We prove that they ar…
We establish causal semantics for SDEs and develop methods to reason about them.
problem Understanding causal relationships in systems modeled by stochastic differential equations.
method We introduce a causal graph framework, Markov properties, and do-calculus for SDEs.
result We prove the -separation Markov property and do-calculus for causal SDEs.
Graphical models are popular statistical tools which are used to represent dependent or causal complex systems. Statistically equivalent causal or directed graphical models are said to belong to a Markov equivalent class. It is of great interest to describe and understand the space of such classes. However, with curren…
We define the singular Hecke algebra as the quotient of the singular braid monoid algebra by the Hecke relations , , and define the Markov traces on the sequence in the same way as for the Marko…
New tree-structured Markov fields with Poisson marginals for counting variables.
problem Counting variables with complex dependencies.
method Tree-structured Markov random fields with Poisson marginals.
result Straightforward sampling and joint probability calculations.
In this paper, we propose a simple, versatile model for learning the structure and parameters of multivariate distributions from a data set. Learning a Markov network from a given data set is not a simple problem, because Markov networks rigorously represent Markov properties, and this rigor imposes complex constraints…
Generalized Precision Matrix for scalable estimation of nonparametric Markov networks.
problem Estimating conditional independence structure in general distributions for all data types.
method Generalized Precision Matrix (GPM) for mixed-type variables, regularized score matching framework for scalability.
result Validated theoretical results and demonstrated scalability in various settings.