Generative models often fail to preserve joint structure despite matching marginals.
problem Generative models fail to capture complex dependencies beyond univariate marginals.
method Introduced D_Sigma(P,Q) = ||Sigma_P - Sigma_Q||_F to measure covariance-level dependence fidelity.
result Covariance-level divergence can lead to structural instability in downstream inference.
New method controls error in low-dimensional marginals of spatial models.
problem Inaccurate approximation of low-dimensional marginals in spatial models.
method Stein's method with δ-locality condition for spatial models.
result Uniform error bound for marginals of approximate distributions.
Paper analyzes GMM for separable data with various parameter structures.
problem Classifying separable data with logistic models and their generalizations.
method Introduces and analyzes Generalized Margin Maximizer (GMM) for logistic models with specific parameter structures.
result GMM outperforms max-margin classifiers in various parameter settings and structures.
New method for efficient marginalization of discrete latent variables in neural networks.
problem Computational challenges in training models with discrete latent variables.
method Parameterizing discrete distributions using sparse mappings (sparsemax and structured variants) to reduce support and enable efficient marginalization.
result Achieved good performance in various tasks with efficient and practical training.
Max-margin learning is a powerful approach to building classifiers and structured output predictors. Recent work on max-margin supervised topic models has successfully integrated it with Bayesian topic models to discover discriminative latent semantic structures and make accurate predictions for unseen testing data. Ho…
Max-min margin Markov networks improve consistency in structured prediction.
problem Statistical inconsistency in max-margin methods for structured prediction.
method Defining a max-min margin formulation to overcome statistical inconsistency.
result Proves consistency and provides an explicit algorithm with finite sample generalization bounds.
The paper examines how heavy-tailed risks behave under Gaussian copula models.
problem Understanding tail risk probabilities with heavy-tailed marginal risks and Gaussian dependence.
method Modeling heavy-tailed risks using regular variation and analyzing tail probabilities under Gaussian copula.
result The rate of decay of tail set probabilities varies with the type of tail sets and Gaussian correlation matrix.
New method improves consistency in preference learning for neural networks.
problem Inconsistent surrogate losses in preference learning for neural networks.
method Formulated a margin-shifted ranking framework and introduced Structure-Aware H-consistency. result Proved superior consistency guarantees for capacity-bounded models using heavy-tailed surrogates.
Estimates marginal independence structure of Bayesian networks from data.
problem Learning the marginal independence structure of Bayesian networks from observational data.
method Using Gröbner basis and MCMC method (GrUES) to connect and recover the true structure.
result GrUES recovers the true marginal independence structure at a higher rate than simple independence tests.
This paper proposes a new method to improve domain adaptation by distinguishing between marginal and dependence structure differences.
problem Existing domain adaptation methods fail to differentiate between marginal and dependence structure differences, leading to suboptimal transferability.
method The paper introduces a new approach that measures and optimizes the differences in internal dependence structure separately from marginals.
result The new method significantly improves transferability and robustness compared to existing benchmarks on real-world datasets.
New method estimates causal effects with multi-valued, time-varying treatments.
problem Estimating causal effects with complex time-varying exposures.
method Combines machine learning and semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Proposes an efficient, asymptotically normal estimator for marginal structural models.
This paper tackles multi-marginal optimal transport problems using DC programming.
problem Multi-marginal optimal transport problems in machine learning.
method Promoting structural information in MMOT leads to a DC programming problem.
result Solutions from DC optimization are as qualitative as current methods.
GAAN uses progressive margin folding for graph feature aggregation.
problem Insufficient aggregation methods between GCNN layers.
method Graph attribute aggregation network with progressive margin folding.
result GAAN outperforms existing GCNN models on molecule datasets.
Learn invariances in models using the marginal likelihood.
problem Generalizing well in supervised learning tasks.
method Learn invariances in model structure using the marginal likelihood.
result Demonstrated for Gaussian process models, reducing complexity of invariant models.
Paper corrects Max-Margin loss for multi-label tasks.
problem Max-Margin loss inconsistency in multi-label classification.
method Introduced Restricted-Max-Margin loss.
result Consistent loss for multi-label tasks under milder conditions.
Efficiently computes robust option prices using multi-marginal martingale transport.
problem Computing robust option prices under martingale constraints.
method Extending state space, sequential martingale structure, entropic regularisation.
result Fast computation of optimal solutions for large problems.
Proposes RLAR for efficient labeled data classification with robust margin and manifold structure.
problem Clear margin representation and data manifold structure difficulty in linear discriminant methods.
method Introduces retargeted regression for adaptive margin learning and locality-aware strategy for compact data manifold.
result RLAR outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in UCI and benchmark data sets.
We investigate the geometric properties of marginally trapped surfaces (surfaces which have null mean curvature vector) in the spaces of oriented geodesics of Euclidean 3-space and hyperbolic 3-space, endowed with their canonical neutral Kaehler structures. We prove that every rank one surface in these four manifolds i…
New method calibrates local volatility models to marginal distributions.
problem Calibrating local volatility models to specific marginal distributions.
method Inspired by volatility interpolation, constructs time-homogeneous or continuous local volatility functions.
result Efficient numerical algorithms for constructing local volatility functions.
Bayesian deep learning improves accuracy and calibration without sacrificing scalability.
problem Bayesian inference's potential for deep neural networks.
method Marginalization over optimization, using neural networks' inherent structure and inductive biases.
result Improvements in accuracy and calibration compared to standard training methods.
Tensorial Mixture Models combine tractable structure with rich distribution representation.
problem Lack of tractable marginalization in generative models.
method Derived from tensor analysis, TMMs use simple convolutional networks and leverage theoretical analyses.
result Tensorial Mixture Models deliver state-of-the-art accuracies in classification tasks with missing data.
Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
problem High-dimensional probability density estimation for inference is difficult.
method Direct estimation of lower-dimensional marginal distributions, using Moment Networks for fast computation of moments.
result Demonstrates estimation of gravitational wave time series and applications in cosmology.
New insights into using IPF for inferring dynamic networks from marginals.
problem Inferring dynamic networks from time-aggregated adjacency matrices and time-varying marginals.
method Identifying a generative network model and establishing its maximum likelihood estimates via IPF, with convergence guarantees for sparse data.
result IPF provides principled estimation of dynamic networks from marginals under certain conditions, with structure-dependent error bounds and guaranteed convergence for sparse data.
Ancestral graph models, introduced by Richardson and Spirtes (2002), generalize both Markov random fields and Bayesian networks to a class of graphs with a global Markov property that is closed under conditioning and marginalization. By design, ancestral graphs encode precisely the conditional independence structures t…
Simulated DAGs can mislead structure learning algorithms due to variance patterns.
problem Structure learning algorithms can be misled by variance patterns in simulated DAG models.
method Introduced varsortability as a measure of agreement between marginal variance order and causal order.
result Performance of structure learning algorithms can be explained by high varsortability, but this does not generalize to real-world data.
New method bounds causal effects using local consistency of marginals.
problem Bounding causal effects due to unmeasured confounding.
method Enforces compatibility between marginals of causal models and data.
result Explicit algorithm and implementation of causal marginal polytope.
Flexible copula model using implicit generative neural networks.
problem Limited flexibility of parametric copulas and curse of dimensionality in non-parametric methods.
method Implicit generative neural networks to model high-dimensional copula distributions with unspecified marginals.
result Demonstrated flexibility and performance on various datasets.
The paper develops a new model-free formula for option initial margins.
problem Calculating initial margins for option portfolios is complex and risky.
method The authors derive a new approximation formula for VaR without assuming a model.
result The new formula performs better than existing methods in simulations.
New approach solves multi-marginal Skorokhod Embedding Problem.
problem Solving multi-marginal Skorokhod Embedding Problem.
method Extending theory from one-marginal to multi-marginal setup.
result All classical optimal embeddings have natural multi-marginal counterparts.
New algorithm for efficient inference over tree-structured graphs.
problem Inference over probabilistic graphical models with aggregate data.
method Optimal transport theory, Sinkhorn/iterative scaling algorithm, belief propagation.
result Global convergence and polynomial computational complexity.
This paper generalizes an important result from the PAC-Bayesian literature for binary classification to the case of ensemble methods for structured outputs. We prove a generic version of the \Cbound, an upper bound over the risk of models expressed as a weighted majority vote that is based on the first and second stat…
Improved forecasting of financial risk using Diffusion-Copula framework.
problem Capturing complex, asymmetric dependence structures in financial markets.
method Explicitly decouples marginal distribution learning from dependence structure using Mixture Density Networks and Classification-Diffusion Copula.
result Superior performance in forecasting systemic extremes of marginal and joint events.
The paper analyzes structured prediction with new margin guarantees and learning algorithms.
problem Structured prediction with arbitrary factor graphs and complex loss functions.
method Data-dependent margin guarantees and Voted Risk Minimization principle.
result New learning bounds and algorithms (VCRF, StructBoost) for complex factor graphs.
New method estimates Gaussian copulas with missing data using EM algorithm.
problem Estimating Gaussian copulas with missing data and prior assumptions.
method Rigorous application of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for marginal distributions and dependence structure.
result Joint distribution learned is closer to the underlying distribution.
Researchers expand on best subset selection theory, identifying key complexities.
problem Understanding model selection performance in high-dimensional sparse linear regression.
method Analyzing residualized signals, orthogonality, and spurious projections to establish margin conditions.
result Established necessary and sufficient margin conditions for BSS model consistency.
COMET Flows model multivariate extremes with heavy tails and asymmetric dependence.
problem Normalizing flows struggle with multivariate extremes and asymmetric tail dependence.
method COMET Flows decomposes modeling into marginal and copula parts; uses tail belief and kernel density for marginals, and low-dimensional manifold for tail dependence.
result COMET Flows outperform other models in capturing heavy-tailed marginals and asymmetric tail dependence.
A new method scores contextual Markov networks without assuming chordality.
problem Learning structure in contextual Markov networks is hard due to many possible structures.
method Marginal pseudo-likelihood as a consistent structure estimator.
result Marginal pseudo-likelihood yields a consistent structure estimator.
Identifies interpretable generative model for multivariate data.
problem Black-box architectures of deep generative models are often unidentified and difficult to interpret.
method Introduces Deep Discrete Encoder (DDE) Copula, a hierarchical binary latent variable model inside a copula framework.
result Establishes conditions for identification of DDE copula parameters and proves posterior consistency.
We introduce an innovative theoretical framework to model derivative transactions between defaultable entities based on the principle of arbitrage freedom. Our framework extends the traditional formulations based on Credit and Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA and DVA). Depending on how the default contingency is accoun…
This work reduces DIM computation costs by training neural networks on single MC paths.
problem Training neural networks for Dynamic Initial Margin (DIM) computation in counterparty credit risk.
method Constructing a training dataset with noisy but unbiased DIM samples from single MC paths, employing a multi-output neural network structure.
result The approach reduces dataset generation cost to a single MC execution and validates its general applicability and efficiency.
AGM uses adversarial approach for robust prediction in structured prediction problems.
problem Structured prediction problems with complex relationships between variables.
method Adversarial Graphical Models (AGM) for distributionally robust prediction.
result AGM achieves Fisher consistency and flexibility in loss metrics.
Proposes logistic-beta process for modeling dependent probabilities with beta marginals.
problem Limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for dependent random probabilities.
method Introduces logistic-beta process with logistic transformation and beta marginals, capable of modeling dependence in discrete and continuous domains.
result Logistic-beta processes enable effective posterior inference and design of computationally tractable dependent Bayesian nonparametric models.
Identifying components and estimating mixing weights in unlabeled finite mixtures under marginal independence.
problem Identifying components and estimating mixing weights in unlabeled finite mixtures.
method Proving structural results and extending them to observable mixtures.
result Identifying components and estimating mixing weights under marginal independence.
In this work, we propose the marginal structured SVM (MSSVM) for structured prediction with hidden variables. MSSVM properly accounts for the uncertainty of hidden variables, and can significantly outperform the previously proposed latent structured SVM (LSSVM; Yu & Joachims (2009)) and other state-of-art methods, espe…
Investigates how multivariate Lévy models affect calibration and pricing.
problem How multivariate Lévy models affect calibration and pricing.
method Calibration methods of Luciano and Semeraro (2010) and Ballotta and Bonfiglioli (2016) are studied.
result Models can fit market data and price exotic derivatives with rich dependence structures.
A new sampler for FLMs improves token-level decoding controls.
problem Sampling from FLMs using standard methods collapses marginals and produces invalid sequences.
method Samples clean one-hot endpoints from FLM token marginals and uses Ornstein-Uhlenbeck bridges conditioned on these endpoints.
result The method preserves token-wise posterior-predictive marginals and improves quality-diversity tradeoff.
Any regular Gaussian probability distribution that can be represented by an AMP chain graph (CG) can be expressed as a system of linear equations with correlated errors whose structure depends on the CG. However, the CG represents the errors implicitly, as no nodes in the CG correspond to the errors. We propose in this…
Develops a new worst-case bound on expected shortfall with bivariate expert information.
problem Bounding expected shortfall with limited distributional information.
method Modeling trade-off between conservatism and expert information using Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result Bound reduces to comonotonic upper bound as expert information becomes more certain.