A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
MOVDA improves skill ratings by considering margin of victory deviations.
AlphaZero's reward function is replaced with a total ordering, enabling self-play without balancing.
This paper discusses the gambling contest introduced in Seel & Strack (Gambling in contests, Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 375, Mar 2012.) and considers the impact of adding a penalty associated with failure to follow a winning strategy. The Seel & Strack model c…
The availability of massive data about sports activities offers nowadays the opportunity to quantify the relation between performance and success. In this study, we analyze more than 6,000 games and 10 million events in six European leagues and investigate this relation in soccer competitions. We discover that a team's…
A four-pronged approach to dealing with Social Science Phenomenon is outlined. This methodology is applied to Financial Services, Economic Growth and Well-Being. The four prongs are like the four directions for an army general looking for victory. Just like the four directions, we need to be aware that there is a degre…
Fan tokens surged before World Cup matches, but declined during them, revealing cognitive biases.
The study analyzes games and social hierarchies, incorporating luck and depth of competition.
There certainly is little or no doubt that politicians, sometimes consciously and sometimes not, exert a significant impact on stock markets. The evolving volatility over the Republican Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election is a perfect example when politicians, through announced policies, sen…
Recent research has used margin theory to analyze the generalization performance for deep neural networks (DNNs). The existed results are almost based on the spectrally-normalized minimum margin. However, optimizing the minimum margin ignores a mass of information about the entire margin distribution, which is crucial …
In this paper, we perform a minimalistic quantization of the classical game of tic-tac-toe, by allowing superpositions of classical moves. In order for the quantum game to reduce properly to the classical game, we require legal quantum moves to be orthogonal to all previous moves. We also admit interference effects, by…
The paper defines marginal tubes and proves their null nature.
Margin system for margin loans using cash and stock as collateral is considered in this paper, which is the line of defence for brokers against risk associated with margin trading. The conditional probability of negative return is used as risk measure, and a recursive algorithm is proposed to realize this measure under…
An active margin system for margin loans is proposed for Chinese margin lending market, which uses cash and randomly selected stock as collateral. The conditional probability of negative return(CPNR) after a forced sale of securities from under-margined account in a falling market is used to measure the risk faced by t…
In order to protect brokers from customer defaults in a volatile market, an active margin system is proposed for the transactions of margin lending in China. The probability of negative return under the condition that collaterals are liquidated in a falling market is used to measure the risk associated with margin loan…
Paper introduces negative margin loss for better few-shot classification accuracy.
Random projections have been applied in many machine learning algorithms. However, whether margin is preserved after random projection is non-trivial and not well studied. In this paper we analyse margin distortion after random projection, and give the conditions of margin preservation for binary classification problem…
Margin enlargement over training data has been an important strategy since perceptrons in machine learning for the purpose of boosting the robustness of classifiers toward a good generalization ability. Yet Breiman (1999) showed a dilemma that a uniform improvement on margin distribution does NOT necessarily reduces ge…
Boosting and other ensemble methods combine a large number of weak classifiers through weighted voting to produce stronger predictive models. To explain the successful performance of boosting algorithms, Schapire et al. (1998) showed that AdaBoost is especially effective at increasing the margins of the training data. …
Proposes a new distance metric for multi-marginal optimal transport.
The marginal maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimation problem, which calculates the mode of the marginal posterior distribution of a subset of variables with the remaining variables marginalized, is an important inference problem in many models, such as those with hidden variables or uncertain parameters. Unfo…
We investigate the geometric properties of marginally trapped surfaces (surfaces which have null mean curvature vector) in the spaces of oriented geodesics of Euclidean 3-space and hyperbolic 3-space, endowed with their canonical neutral Kaehler structures. We prove that every rank one surface in these four manifolds i…
We study adversarial robustness of neural networks from a margin maximization perspective, where margins are defined as the distances from inputs to a classifier's decision boundary. Our study shows that maximizing margins can be achieved by minimizing the adversarial loss on the decision boundary at the "shortest succ…
Proposes MFSWB for marginal fairness in SWB, improving efficiency and performance.
Near-Exponential Convergence Rates for kNN Classification
The paper improves SVM margin-based generalization bounds.
For linear classifiers, the relationship between (normalized) output margin and generalization is captured in a clear and simple bound -- a large output margin implies good generalization. Unfortunately, for deep models, this relationship is less clear: existing analyses of the output margin give complicated bounds whi…
We introduce a useful tool for analyzing boosting algorithms called the ``smooth margin function,'' a differentiable approximation of the usual margin for boosting algorithms. We present two boosting algorithms based on this smooth margin, ``coordinate ascent boosting'' and ``approximate coordinate ascent boosting,'' w…
Estimates log marginal likelihood using multilevel Monte Carlo.
New DP algorithms with margin guarantees for various hypothesis sets.
Unified binary and multiclass margin-based classification methods.
We provide a new local class-purity theorem for Lipschitz continuous DNN classifiers. In addition, we discuss how to achieve classification margin for training samples. Finally, we describe how to compute margin p-values for test samples.
New method for interpreting non-linear models using forward marginal effects.
Paper improves ISDA margin calculation using LSMC.
New findings show margins are not sufficient for explaining gradient boosting performance.
Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically either uses MCMC schemes which target the joint posterior of the parameters and some…
In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bia…
In the absence of prior knowledge, ordinal embedding methods obtain new representation for items in a low-dimensional Euclidean space via a set of quadruple-wise comparisons. These ordinal comparisons often come from human annotators, and sufficient comparisons induce the success of classical approaches. However, colle…
Paper reinterprets marginal productivity theory using vectorial products, challenging traditional ethical interpretations.
We analyze bias-variance of margin losses.
MACQ method explains deep learning models by analyzing feature contributions across prediction levels.
Bayesian evidence helps compare models but can overfit.
A mesh-free method solves continuum-marginal optimal transport problems.
Study of marginally trapped surfaces in a perturbed Schwarzschild spacetime.
The paper introduces canonical parameters for marginally trapped surfaces in Minkowski space.
Study examines liquidation, leverage, and optimal margin requirements in Bitcoin futures markets.
Paper corrects Max-Margin loss for multi-label tasks.
New margin-based learning guarantees improve generalization bounds.
The paper proposes effective margin regularization to improve adversarial robustness in deep neural networks.