A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The article is devoted to investigating the application of aggregating algorithms to the problem of the long-term forecasting. We examine the classic aggregating algorithms based on the exponential reweighing. For the general Vovk's aggregating algorithm we provide its generalization for the long-term forecasting. For …
We consider online optimization in the 1-lookahead setting, where the objective does not decompose additively over the rounds of the online game. The resulting formulation enables us to deal with non-stationary and/or long-term constraints , which arise, for example, in online display advertising problems. We propose a…
This paper balances short-term and long-term rewards in policy learning.
problem Balancing short-term and long-term rewards in policy learning.
method Formalizes a new framework to balance rewards, identifies rewards under mild assumptions, deduces efficiency bounds, and develops a policy learning approach.
result The proposed method improves the estimator of long-term reward and reduces regret.
This paper considers online convex optimization over a complicated constraint set, which typically consists of multiple functional constraints and a set constraint. The conventional online projection algorithm (Zinkevich, 2003) can be difficult to implement due to the potentially high computation complexity of the proj…
We propose the first reduction-based approach to obtaining long-term memory guarantees for online learning in the sense of Bousquet and Warmuth, 2002, by reducing the problem to achieving typical switching regret. Specifically, for the classical expert problem with K actions and T rounds, using our framework we dev…
In this paper, we study a class of online optimization problems with long-term budget constraints where the objective functions are not necessarily concave (nor convex) but they instead satisfy the Diminishing Returns (DR) property. Specifically, a sequence of monotone DR-submodular objective functions $\{f_t(x)\}_{t=1…
We present an adaptive online gradient descent algorithm to solve online convex optimization problems with long-term constraints , which are constraints that need to be satisfied when accumulated over a finite number of rounds T , but can be violated in intermediate rounds. For some user-defined trade-off parameter β…
We study the problem of repeated play in a zero-sum game in which the payoff matrix may change, in a possibly adversarial fashion, on each round; we call these Online Matrix Games. Finding the Nash Equilibrium (NE) of a two player zero-sum game is core to many problems in statistics, optimization, and economics, and fo…
For the prediction with experts' advice setting, we construct forecasting algorithms that suffer loss not much more than any expert in the pool. In contrast to the standard approach, we investigate the case of long-term forecasting of time series and consider two scenarios. In the first one, at each step t the learne…
Finding optimal policies which maximize long term rewards of Markov Decision Processes requires the use of dynamic programming and backward induction to solve the Bellman optimality equation. However, many real-world problems require optimization of an objective that is non-linear in cumulative rewards for which dynami…
This paper considers online convex optimization (OCO) with stochastic constraints, which generalizes Zinkevich's OCO over a known simple fixed set by introducing multiple stochastic functional constraints that are i.i.d. generated at each round and are disclosed to the decision maker only after the decision is made. Th…
The problem of multi-armed bandits (MAB) asks to make sequential decisions while balancing between exploitation and exploration, and have been successfully applied to a wide range of practical scenarios. Various algorithms have been designed to achieve a high reward in a long term. However, its short-term performance m…
The paper tackles fair sharing of exploration costs across groups in online learning.
problem Sharing the cost of exploration fairly across multiple groups in online learning.
method The paper introduces the 'grouped' bandit model and uses axiomatic bargaining theory, specifically the Nash bargaining solution, to formalize fairness.
result The paper derives policies that are optimally fair and regret-optimal, showing that regret-optimal policies can be unfair.
Existing approaches to online convex optimization (OCO) make sequential one-slot-ahead decisions, which lead to (possibly adversarial) losses that drive subsequent decision iterates. Their performance is evaluated by the so-called regret that measures the difference of losses between the online solution and the best ye…