arXiv research

In the present paper, given an evolving mixture of probability densities, we define a candidate diffusion process whose marginal law follows the same evolution. We derive as a particular case a stochastic differential equation (SDE) admitting a unique strong solution and whose density evolves as a mixture of Gaussian d…

New approach improves computational efficiency of Bass Local Volatility model.

W-shaped vol curves in liquid options can be modeled with two variance-gamma models.

Continuous-time interpolation of volatility surfaces preserving mixtures and arbitrage-free.

The Multi Variate Mixture Dynamics model is a tractable, dynamical, arbitrage-free multivariate model characterized by transparency on the dependence structure, since closed form formulae for terminal correlations, average correlations and copula function are available. It also allows for complete decorrelation between…

This work presents an empirical study of the evolution of the consumer expenditure distribution in India during 1982-2007. We have used the National Sample Survey Organization data and analysed the expenditure distribution for the urban and rural sectors. It is found that this distribution is a mixture of two distribut…

Modified lognormal distribution with flexible tails for skewed data.

Paper introduces new approximations for lognormal sums, matching comonotonicity and moments.

Lognormal random variables appear naturally in many engineering disciplines, including wireless communications, reliability theory, and finance. So, too, does the sum of (correlated) lognormal random variables. Unfortunately, no closed form probability distribution exists for such a sum, and it requires approximation. …

The paper presents an approximate formula for European mortgage options pricing.

This paper bridges Kahler geometry and quantum mechanics in lognormal statistical models.

Lower bound found for volatility swap in SABR model.

Analyzes premium data of Indian non-life insurers, finding GEV distribution best fits Lognormal and GEV extremes.

Fast, reliable, and error-bounded option pricing with neural networks

We analyze three sets of income data: the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics PSID), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). It is shown that the empirical income distribution is consistent with a two-parameter lognormal function for the low-middle income group (97%-99% of …

We prove lognormal distribution for symmetric perceptron model, solving key conjectures.

Study benchmarks cryptocurrency risk using GBM, revealing Lognormal limitations.

Based on the work of Suzuki (2002), we consider a generalization of Merton's asset valuation approach (Merton, 1974) in which two firms are linked by cross-ownership of equity and liabilities. Suzuki's results then provide no arbitrage prices of firm values, which are derivatives of exogenous asset values. In contrast …

We invert the Black-Scholes formula. We consider the cases low strike, large strike, short maturity and large maturity. We give explicitly the first 5 terms of the expansions. A method to compute all the terms by induction is also given. At the money, we have a closed form formula for implied lognormal volatility in te…

We derive variance-optimal hedging strategies for SABR and rough Bergomi models.

Instantaneous volatility of logarithmic return in the lognormal fractional SABR model is driven by the exponentiation of a correlated fractional Brownian motion. Due to the mixed nature of driving Brownian and fractional Brownian motions, probability density for such a model is less studied in the literature. We show i…

Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time scales. It is shown that while chi-square superstatistics works well on a time scale…

We empirically investigate distributions of individual consumption expenditure f or four commodity categories conditional on fixed income levels. The data stems from the Family Expenditure Survey carried out annually in the United Kingdom. W e use graphical techniques to test for normality and lognormality of these dis…

Paper improves stochastic collocation for local volatility models.

First, we show that implied normal volatility is intimately linked with the incomplete Gamma function. Then, we deduce an expansion on implied normal volatility in terms of the time-value of a European call option. Then, we formulate an equivalence between the implied normal volatility and the lognormal implied volatil…

We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal model and of the Hull and White model. The lognormal model well describes the pd…

This paper uses basket option formulas to price vanilla options with discrete dividends.

Paper presents new expansions for option pricing with cash dividends.

We examine in this article the pricing of target volatility options in the lognormal fractional SABR model. A decomposition formula by Ito's calculus yields a theoretical replicating strategy for the target volatility option, assuming the accessibilities of all variance swaps and swaptions. The same formula also sugges…

Typically, operational risk losses are reported above some threshold. This paper studies the impact of ignoring data truncation on the 0.999 quantile of the annual loss distribution for operational risk for a broad range of distribution parameters and truncation levels. Loss frequency and severity are modelled by the P…

We consider a simple stochastic model of a urban rental housing market, in which the interaction of tenants and landlords induces rent fluctuations. We simulate the model numerically and measure the equilibrium rent distribution, which is found to be close to a lognormal law. We also study the influence of the density …

Vanna-Volga is a popular method for the interpolation/extrapolation of volatility smiles. The technique is widely used in the FX markets context, due to its ability to consistently construct the entire Lognormal smile using only three Lognormal market quotes. However, the derivation of the Vanna-Volga method itself is …

Efficiently simulates SABR model with novel sampling methods.

We consider the terminal wealth utility maximization problem from the point of view of a portfolio manager who is paid by an incentive scheme, which is given as a convex function $g$ of the terminal wealth. The manager's own utility function $U$ is assumed to be smooth and strictly concave, however the resulting utilit…

We introduce and analyze a linear kinetic model that describes the evolution of the probability density of the number of firms in a society, in which the microscopic rate of change obeys to the so-called law of proportional effect proposed by Gibrat. Despite its apparent simplicity, the possible mean field limits of th…

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size needed to establish a comparative $n$ needed for statistical significance, 2) allows…

We report empirical studies on the personal income distribution, and clarify that the distribution pattern of the lognormal with power law tail is the universal structure. We analyze the temporal change of Pareto index and Gibrat index to investigate the change of the inequality of the income distribution. In addition …

This paper uses entropy to derive stock price dynamics and option valuation.

New method uses SBI to infer magnetorotational properties of isolated pulsars.

Study optimal investment decisions for diverse risk-tolerant agents.

In the limit of infinite number of nodes (agents), the Itô-reduced Bouchaud-Mézard network model of economic exchange has a time-independent mean and a steady-state inverse gamma distribution. We show that for a finite number of nodes the mean is actually distributed as a time-dependent lognormal and inverse gamma is q…

We investigate the Japanese personal income distribution in the high income range over the 112 years 1887-1998, and that in the middle income range over the 44 years 1955-98. It is observed that the distribution pattern of the lognormal with power law tail is the universal structure. However the indexes specifying the …

A dynamic model of the social relations between workers and capitalists is introduced. The model is deduced from the assumption that the law of value is an organising principle of modern economies. The model self-organises into a dynamic equilibrium with statistical properties that are in close qualitative and in many …

Optimal fund deployment strategy under uncertain deal arrivals.

In this paper we apply Markovian approximation of the fractional Brownian motion (BM), known as the Dobric-Ojeda (DO) process, to the fractional stochastic volatility model where the instantaneous variance is modelled by a lognormal process with drift and fractional diffusion. Since the DO process is a semi-martingale,…

Proposes new rule for ranking investment prospects over long horizons.

The widening inequality in income distribution in recent years, and the associated excessive pay packages of CEOs in the U.S. and elsewhere, is of growing concern among policy makers as well as the common person. However, there seems to be no satisfactory answer, in conventional economic theories and models, to the fun…

Models which postulate lognormal dynamics for interest rates which are compounded according to market conventions, such as forward LIBOR or forward swap rates, can be constructed initially in a discrete tenor framework. Interpolating interest rates between maturities in the discrete tenor structure is equivalent to ext…