Flow-GAN combines GAN and maximum likelihood for better sample quality and likelihood evaluation.
problem Challenges in evaluating generative models trained by maximum likelihood.
method Proposes Flow-GAN, a generative adversarial network that allows exact likelihood evaluation.
result Hybrid training of Flow-GAN can achieve high held-out likelihoods while maintaining visual fidelity.
Parallel Gaussian process surrogate for noisy likelihood evaluations in Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference with limited noisy log-likelihood evaluations from complex models.
method Hierarchical Gaussian process surrogate model for log-likelihood, batch-sequential design strategies.
result Robust, highly parallelizable, and sample-efficient method.
We present and implement two algorithms for analytic asymptotic evaluation of the marginal likelihood of data given a Bayesian network with hidden nodes. As shown by previous work, this evaluation is particularly hard for latent Bayesian network models, namely networks that include hidden variables, where asymptotic ap…
This study benchmarks likelihood-free inference methods for models with heavy-tailed or discrete data.
problem Comparing likelihood-free inference methods for models with structural features like heavy-tails or discreteness.
method Four approaches: MLE, NBE, EOT, and AW-NBE are evaluated using simulations.
result The choice of evaluation tools is crucial for models with extremes and discrete data.
HollowFlow speeds up likelihood evaluation for large-scale models.
problem Prohibitive scaling of sample likelihood computations in flow-based models.
method Introduces HollowFlow, a flow-based generative model using a NoBGNN with a block-diagonal Jacobian structure.
result Achieves up to O(n^2) speed-up in likelihood evaluation for large systems.
This work evaluates deep generative models using RD curves, providing a more comprehensive quality assessment.
problem Quantitative evaluation of deep generative models is challenging, especially for implicit models.
method Proposes using rate distortion (RD) curves to evaluate and compare deep generative models, approximating the entire curve with similar computations to log-likelihood estimation.
result Approximating the entire RD curve provides a more comprehensive quality assessment than scalar-valued metrics.
A common problem in disciplines of applied Statistics research such as Astrostatistics is of estimating the posterior distribution of relevant parameters. Typically, the likelihoods for such models are computed via expensive experiments such as cosmological simulations of the universe. An urgent challenge in these rese…
EvalGAN evaluates GANs by measuring reconstruction quality and likelihood.
problem Evaluating the quality of generated images from GANs.
method EvalGAN uses a test set to measure reconstruction quality and likelihood in the original sample space.
result EvalGAN provides a direct and agnostic method for evaluating GANs.
Develops a fast and precise method to evaluate likelihood of jump-diffusion models.
problem Evaluating likelihood functions of models with stochastic volatility and jumps.
method Deterministic nonlinear filtering algorithm based on Kitagawa's method.
result Deterministic filtering is faster and more precise than particle filter.
Optimistic likelihoods improve classification accuracy by considering nearby distributions.
problem Evaluating likelihoods of nominal distributions estimated from data, which can be inaccurate.
method Use ambiguity sets and geodesic/standard convex optimization to compute optimistic likelihoods.
result Optimistic likelihoods lead to better classification performance.
Normalizing flow regression approximates posterior distributions without additional sampling.
problem Bayesian inference with computationally expensive likelihood evaluations.
method Normalizing flow regression (NFR) for offline inference.
result NFR yields a tractable posterior approximation through regression on existing log-density evaluations.
The Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) can be used either as classifiers or as generative models. The quality of the generative RBM is measured through the average log-likelihood on test data. Due to the high computational complexity of evaluating the partition function, exact calculation of test log-likelihood is ver…
Corrects bias in learned generative models using likelihood-free importance weighting.
problem Bias in learned generative models relative to true data distribution.
method Estimate likelihood ratio using a classifier, apply importance weighting.
result Consistently improves goodness-of-fit metrics for deep generative models.
Improved MCMC sampling for expensive, irregular likelihoods.
problem Bayesian inference challenges with irregular, expensive likelihoods.
method Adapt subset samplers, introduce data-driven proxies, adaptive controller.
result Improved HINTS algorithm achieves best sampling error in fixed budget.
Framework for Bayesian inference using GP emulated MH sampler for noisy likelihoods.
problem Approximate Bayesian inference with limited noisy log-likelihood evaluations.
method Gaussian process emulates MH sampler for log-likelihood evaluations; sequential experimental design selects evaluation points.
result Approximate sampler is sample-efficient and robust to GP assumptions.
Neural methods improve likelihood-free inference with fewer simulations.
problem Inference when likelihood functions are unavailable.
method Comparing neural approaches for likelihood-free inference.
result Neural methods can achieve state-of-the-art results with fewer simulations.
This paper introduces a method to estimate log-likelihood in VAE models.
problem Difficulty in comparing models trained via ELBO due to lack of log-likelihood.
method Introduces a general upper bound to approximate model evidence.
result Efficiently approximates model evidence and compares to other bounds.
New method uses approximate KLD for intractable likelihood models.
problem Designing experiments for models with intractable likelihoods.
method Derive a lower bound of KLD utility, express it in terms of entropies, and evaluate efficiently.
result Demonstrated the performance of the proposed method through numerical examples.
IBS efficiently estimates log-likelihood without bias.
problem Estimating log-likelihood for complex models.
method Inverse Binomial Sampling (IBS) for efficient, unbiased estimation.
result IBS produces lower error in estimated parameters and maximum log-likelihood values.
Bayesian method infers contextual bandit policies robustly.
problem Inference of contextual bandit policies in small sample sizes.
method Empirical likelihood for Bayesian inference.
result Accurate uncertainty measurements and policy comparison.
SCALLOP improves likelihood flow maps for efficient Boltzmann generation.
problem Efficient estimation of model likelihood in flow-based generative models.
method SCALLOP introduces a Hutchinson-free likelihood distillation objective for scalable flow-based models.
result SCALLOP achieves up to 10x inference speedup while improving performance.
Improves likelihood-free inference by using a new sampling approach to avoid biased data collection.
problem Efficient Bayesian inference without likelihood evaluation for real-world datasets.
method Introduces Neural Proposal (NP) to sample simulation inputs i.i.d. for unbiased posterior inference.
result Demonstrates improved performance, especially for multi-modal posteriors, through experiments.
Paper assesses uncertainty in safety evaluation of self-driving tech.
problem Estimating uncertainty in safety-critical event probabilities.
method Combines bootstrap method and likelihood ratio scheme for input uncertainty assessment.
result Demonstrates the impact of data variability on safety evaluation estimates.
Paper proposes an optimistic likelihood approximation for nonparametric likelihoods.
problem Computational intractability of evaluating likelihood functions in Bayesian statistics.
method Non-parametric approximation using distributionally robust optimization.
result Optimistic likelihood can be solved as a convex optimization problem with analytical expressions.
VBMC combines variational inference and Bayesian quadrature for efficient posterior and model evidence estimation.
problem Efficient inference for models with expensive, black-box likelihoods.
method Combines variational inference with Gaussian-process based active-sampling Bayesian quadrature.
result Produces both a nonparametric approximation of the posterior and an approximate lower bound of the model evidence efficiently.
KELFI improves inference accuracy in likelihood-free settings with limited simulations.
problem Intractable likelihood evaluations in likelihood-free inference.
method Kernel embedding likelihood-free inference (KELFI) learns model hyperparameters to balance accuracy and efficiency.
result Improved accuracy and efficiency on challenging inference problems in ecology.
A new method for training diffusion models using likelihood matching.
problem Training efficient and accurate diffusion models.
method Likelihood Matching approach, quasi-likelihood approximation, score and Hessian estimation.
result Consistent matching of first two transitional moments between diffusion steps.
Unified contrastive learning for likelihood-free inference.
problem Parameter inference in models with intractable likelihood.
method Unified contrastive learning scheme for both density ratio and direct posterior estimation.
result Unified approach clarifies method selection and comparison.
Deep learning improves Bayes factor computation for likelihood-free models.
problem Computing Bayes factors for likelihood-free models is challenging.
method Proposes a deep learning estimator of Bayes factors using simulated data.
result Establishes consistency of the Deep Bayes Factor estimator.
We approximate differential entropy for efficient Bayesian experimental design.
problem Efficiently estimating expected information gain in large-scale inference problems.
method Approximate differential entropy using Monte Carlo or quasi-Monte Carlo surrogates.
result Our approach achieves comparable or better convergence rates than state-of-the-art methods.
Unsupervised learning of probabilistic models is a central yet challenging problem in machine learning. Specifically, designing models with tractable learning, sampling, inference and evaluation is crucial in solving this task. We extend the space of such models using real-valued non-volume preserving (real NVP) transf…
PresGANs improve GANs by mitigating mode collapse and enhancing log-likelihood.
problem GANs struggle with mode collapse and lack a reliable way to evaluate generalization.
method PresGANs add noise to density networks and use entropy regularization to stabilize training and capture all modes.
result PresGANs reduce the gap in predictive log-likelihood between GANs and VAEs.
A new estimator improves off-policy evaluation in RL, outperforming existing methods.
problem Estimating performance of a new policy using historical data from a different policy.
method Doubly-robust estimator based on Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation, with variance reduction techniques.
result Our estimator uniformly outperforms existing methods across various RL environments and levels of model misspecification.
Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte…
A new concordance loss improves model performance and reliability in survival prediction.
problem Inconsistent evaluation of deep survival models using likelihood losses.
method Proposed a value-monotone concordance loss (SCL) to improve reliability and optimization.
result SCL achieves comparable discrimination and is the best or within one standard deviation of the best C-index across multiple datasets.
Optimizing full likelihoods adapts loss scales and shapes for robust modeling.
problem Rigid loss functions limit model adaptability and robustness.
method Optimize full likelihoods with adjustable parameters.
result Adaptive tuning of loss scales and shapes improves model robustness.
Neural networks estimate spatial process likelihoods efficiently.
problem Challenges in estimating spatial processes with slow or intractable likelihoods.
method Convolutional neural networks trained on a classification task to learn likelihood function.
result Neural likelihood surfaces provide fast and accurate parameter estimation.
VBMC+VIQR outperforms noisy models in Bayesian inference.
problem Bayesian inference with noisy likelihoods in complex models.
method Gaussian process surrogates, expected information gain, variational interquantile range.
result VBMC+VIQR achieves state-of-the-art performance in noisy inference benchmarks.
New criterion improves predictive evaluation in weighted inference scenarios.
problem Improving predictive evaluation in scenarios with different likelihoods for estimation and evaluation.
method Developed the posterior covariance information criterion (PCIC) to handle weighted likelihood inference.
result PCIC is asymptotically unbiased for quasi-Bayesian generalization error in weighted inference.
Neural networks approximate CDFs for efficient likelihood estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating likelihoods for complex distributions.
method Parameterizing conditional CDFs with neural networks and using automatic differentiation.
result A range of neural network architectures for CDF estimation, from simple to flexible.
Unified approach to continual learning using Bayesian methods.
problem Challenges in evaluating posterior approximations for continual learning.
method Introduces a new approximate Bayesian derivation of the continual learning loss, adapting the model itself by changing the likelihood term.
result Combines prior- and likelihood-focused methods into one objective, achieving better performance.
In many fields of science, generalized likelihood ratio tests are established tools for statistical inference. At the same time, it has become increasingly common that a simulator (or generative model) is used to describe complex processes that tie parameters θ of an underlying theory and measurement apparatus to hig…
Python package for estimating Hurst exponent in fBm.
problem Estimating Hurst exponent in fractional Brownian motion.
method Whittle's likelihood method applied to fractional Gaussian noise.
result Implementation achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and speed.
Bayesian inference uses Stein discrepancy for robustness in intractable likelihoods.
problem Intractable likelihoods in Bayesian inference.
method Generalised Bayesian inference with Stein discrepancy as the loss function.
result Robust generalised posteriors with closed form or accessible using MCMC.
Test evaluates NMF-based topic models for document corpora.
problem Violation of likelihood assumptions in NMF topic models.
method Double parametric bootstrap test based on KL divergence and Poisson ML.
result Correctly identifies reliable NMF-based topic models.
Generates multimodal safety-critical scenarios for robustness evaluation of decision-making algorithms.
problem Lack of comprehensive evaluation of neural network robustness under real-world scenarios.
method Proposes a flow-based multimodal scenario generator using weighted likelihood maximization and gradient-based sampling.
result Demonstrates improved testing efficiency and multimodal modeling capability compared to traditional methods.
Deep Gaussian Processes improve likelihood-free inference for complex distributions.
problem Limited flexibility of Bayesian Optimization with GPs for multimodal distributions.
method Proposes Deep Gaussian Processes (DGPs) as a surrogate model for likelihood-free inference.
result DGPs outperform GPs on multimodal distributions while maintaining comparable performance on unimodal cases.
Set Flow models sets of data, learns dependencies, and achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods.
problem Modeling and sampling from finite, potentially high-dimensional, non-i.i.d. sets of data.
method Extends RealNVPs to handle finite sets, maintaining invertibility and exact log-likelihood evaluation.
result Achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on 3D point clouds.