A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper proposes decentralized annuities for better retirement security.
Study uses Open Banking data to estimate customer value, showing potential 21% increase.
PRAGMA models financial event sequences for various banking tasks.
We show that the mutual fund theorems of Merton (1971) extend to the problem of optimal investment to minimize the probability of lifetime ruin. We obtain two such theorems by considering a financial market both with and without a riskless asset for random consumption. The striking result is that we obtain two-fund the…
In this paper we study the distributional properties of a vector of lifetimes in which each lifetime is modeled as the first arrival time between an idiosyncratic shock and a common systemic shock. Despite unlike the classical multidimensional Marshall-Olkin model here only a unique common shock affecting all the lifet…
Bounds derived for contract values in life insurance with financial market interaction.
We determine the optimal amount to invest in a Black-Scholes financial market for an individual who consumes at a rate equal to a constant proportion of her wealth and who wishes to minimize the expected time that her wealth spends in drawdown during her lifetime. Drawdown occurs when wealth is less than some fixed pro…
We apply stochastic Perron's method to a singular control problem where an individual targets at a given consumption rate, invests in a risky financial market in which trading is subject to proportional transaction costs, and seeks to minimize her probability of lifetime ruin. Without relying on the dynamic programming…
The study examines Cox models for lifetime loan default risk, addressing biased estimates by incorporating recurrent events.
The study improves CLV predictions in retail banking with machine learning.
We assume that an individual invests in a financial market with one riskless and one risky asset, with the latter's price following a diffusion with stochastic volatility. In the current financial market especially, it is important to include stochastic volatility in the risky asset's price process. Given the rate of c…
We assume that an individual invests in a financial market with one riskless and one risky asset, with the latter's price following geometric Brownian motion as in the Black-Scholes model. Under a constant rate of consumption, we find the optimal investment strategy for the individual who wishes to minimize the probabi…
The goal of lifetime clustering is to develop an inductive model that maps subjects into clusters according to their underlying (unobserved) lifetime distribution. We introduce a neural-network based lifetime clustering model that can find cluster assignments by directly maximizing the divergence between the empiri…
Recent academic work has developed a method to determine, in real time, if a given stock is exhibiting a price bubble. Currently there is speculation in the financial press concerning the existence of a price bubble in the aftermath of the recent IPO of LinkedIn. We analyze stock price tick data from the short lifetime…
Optimizes treatment duration to maximize quality-adjusted lifetime.
We provide investment advice for an individual who wishes to minimize her lifetime poverty, with a penalty for bankruptcy or ruin. We measure poverty via a non-negative, non-increasing function of (running) wealth. Thus, the lower wealth falls and the longer wealth stays low, the greater the penalty. This paper general…
Paper uses RNN to predict SaaS user lifetime value.
New features from early battery cycles predict lifetime with high accuracy.
Insurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a group of people are independent. However, extensive research over the past decades …
Machine learning speeds up FLIM analysis in biomedical research.
In this note, we explicitly solve the problem of maximizing utility of consumption (until the minimum of bankruptcy and the time of death) with a constraint on the probability of lifetime ruin, which can be interpreted as a risk measure on the whole path of the wealth process.
An agent-based computational economical toy model for the emergence of money from the initial barter trading, inspired by Menger's postulate that money can spontaneously emerge in a commodity exchange economy, is extensively studied. The model considered, while manageable, is significantly complex, however. It is alrea…
We study a risk sensitive control version of the lifetime ruin probability problem. We consider a sequence of investments problems in Black-Scholes market that includes a risky asset and a riskless asset. We present a differential game that governs the limit behavior. We solve it explicitly and use it in order to find …
We establish when the two problems of minimizing a function of lifetime minimum wealth and of maximizing utility of lifetime consumption result in the same optimal investment strategy on a given open interval in wealth space. To answer this question, we equate the two investment strategies and show that if the indi…
We show that different rates should be used for borrowing and discount rates, and that the risk-free rate should be used for discounting when assessing and comparing the cost of energy accross diffferent producers and technologies, on the example of photovoltaics. Recent quantitative models using the same rate for borr…
In general it is not clear which kind of information is supposed to be used for calculating the fair value of a contingent claim. Even if the information is specified, it is not guaranteed that the fair value is uniquely determined by the given information. A further problem is that asset prices are typically expressed…
This report is concerned with the Mondrian process and its applications in machine learning. The Mondrian process is a guillotine-partition-valued stochastic process that possesses an elegant self-consistency property. The first part of the report uses simple concepts from applied probability to define the Mondrian pro…
We study a coin-tossing model used by a ratings agency to justify the sale of constant proportion debt obligations (CPDOs), and prove that it was impossible for CPDOs to achieve in a finite lifetime the Cash-In event of doubling its capital. In the best-case scenario of a two-headed coin, we show that the goal of attai…
Wireless sensor networks are composed of distributed sensors that can be used for signal detection or classification. The likelihood functions of the hypotheses are often not known in advance, and decision rules have to be learned via supervised learning. A specific such algorithm is Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA),…
The paper stabilizes PD term structures under forecast uncertainty using a Kalman filter with an anchored observation model.
Bayesian MS-VAR model for pricing equity-linked life insurance products.
Study improves loan default risk estimation using advanced regression models.
We study a continuous-time financial market with continuous price processes under model uncertainty, modeled via a family of possible physical measures. A robust notion of no-arbitrage of the first kind is introduced; it postulates that a nonnegative, nonvanishing claim cannot …
DeepSupp detects financial support levels using attention mechanisms.
Sparse grids reduce xVA exposure evaluations by up to 6000 times.
The paper discovers and evaluates support and resistance levels in financial time series.
In this paper we see the evolution of a capitalized financial event e, with respect to a capitalization factor f, as the exponential map of a suitably defined Lie group G(f,e), supported by the half-space of capitalized financial events having the same capital sign of e. The Lie group G(f,e) depends upon the capitaliza…
We find the minimum probability of lifetime ruin of an investor who can invest in a market with a risky and a riskless asset and can purchase a deferred annuity. Although we let the admissible set of strategies of annuity purchasing process to be increasing adapted processes, we find that the individual will not buy a …
Quantum SVM improves financial data classification.
Summarizes financial news for better investment decisions.
We introduce an extension to Merton's famous continuous time model of optimal consumption and investment, in the spirit of previous works by Pliska and Ye, to allow for a wage earner to have a random lifetime and to use a portion of the income to purchase life insurance in order to provide for his estate, while investi…
New approach models individual vitality for better mortality predictions.
The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.
Nowadays, video game developers record every virtual action performed by their players. As each player can remain in the game for years, this results in an exceptionally rich dataset that can be used to understand and predict player behavior. In particular, this information may serve to identify the most valuable playe…
Empirical evidence supports new financial market definitions.
Develops algorithms to optimize machine replacement schedules using operational data.
Study examines how bank holding structures affect financial stress spread.
In financial markets valuable information is rarely circulated homogeneously, because of time required for information to spread. However, advances in communication technology means that the 'lifetime' of important information is typically short. Hence, viewed as a tradable asset, information shares the characteristics…