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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for Latent Markov Decision Processes

Risk measures applied to dynamic Markov processes with varying risk aversion.

problem Investigating dynamic risk measures in Markov decision processes with varying risk aversion.
method Distributional viewpoint on law-invariant convex risk measures, applied to Markov decision processes with latent costs and random actions.
result Existence of optimal policies in finite and infinite time horizons under mild assumptions.

The paper establishes a nearly-sharp statistical threshold for efficient learning in Latent MDPs with separated components.

problem Learning Latent Markov Decision Processes (LMDPs) with separated components.
method The paper considers various notions of separation and establishes a nearly-sharp statistical threshold for efficient learning. It also presents a quasi-polynomial algorithm with time complexity scaling in terms of the statistical threshold under a weaker assumption of separability under the optimal policy, and a near-matching time complexity lower bound under the exponential time hypothesis.
result Establishes a nearly-sharp statistical threshold for efficient learning in Latent MDPs with separated components.

New algorithms learn POMDPs efficiently with hindsight observability.

problem Hardness of learning in POMDPs due to partial observability.
method Hindsight Observable Markov Decision Process (HOMDP) and new algorithms for tabular and function approximation settings.
result Sample-efficient learning in POMDPs with optimal dependence on latent state and observation cardinalities.

We consider the inverse reinforcement learning problem, that is, the problem of learning from, and then predicting or mimicking a controller based on state/action data. We propose a statistical model for such data, derived from the structure of a Markov decision process. Adopting a Bayesian approach to inference, we sh…

2012-11-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep reinforcement learning finds optimal learning policies for adaptive systems.

problem Finding individualized learning plans for learners with unknown latent traits.
method Formulated as a Markov decision process, applied deep Q-learning with a transition model estimator.
result The algorithm efficiently discovers optimal learning policies with small data sets.

Efficient algorithm for learning from indirect feedback in complex decision-making scenarios.

problem Learning from indirect feedback in realistic scenarios with personalized mechanisms.
method IGW algorithm for policy optimization, extending reward-estimator construction from single-step to multi-step.
result Achieves sublinear regret guarantee for contextual episodic MDPs with personalized feedback.

Paper tests Markov assumption in sequential decision making.

problem Testing the Markov assumption in sequential decision making.
method Forward-Backward Learning procedure to test MA without assuming parametric forms.
result The proposed test plays a crucial role in identifying optimal policies in complex decision processes.

New method for evaluating policies in complex decision-making models with hidden variables.

problem Evaluating policies in partially observable Markov decision processes with hidden confounders.
method Introduces novel identification methods and minimax estimation techniques for linking target policy's value and observed data distribution.
result Proposes three estimators for off-policy evaluation in POMDPs with latent confounders, demonstrating their effectiveness through nonasymptotic and asymptotic analysis.

New algorithm solves uncertain Markov decision processes using Wasserstein uncertainty.

problem Solving Markov decision processes with uncertain transition probabilities.
method Distributionally robust QQ-learning algorithm for Wasserstein uncertainty.
result Convergence of the algorithm proved and demonstrated with real data.

Paper proposes a method to optimize policies for diverse individuals using heterogeneous data.

problem Learning optimal policies for a heterogeneous population from pre-collected data.
method Individualized offline policy optimization framework for heterogeneous MDPs.
result The proposed P4L algorithm achieves a fast rate of average regret.

This work extends HiP-MDPs to robust state abstractions for multi-task and meta-reinforcement learning.

problem Limited observability of state in HiP-MDPs for real-world scenarios with rich observation spaces.
method Inspired by Block MDPs, the work extends HiP-MDPs to enable robust state abstractions for multi-task and meta-reinforcement learning.
result Transfer and generalization bounds based on task and state similarity, and sample complexity bounds that depend on the aggregate number of samples across tasks.

Paper learns meaningful state and action representations from MDP trajectories.

problem Learning good state and action representations from MDP trajectories.
method Tensor decomposition, kernelization, importance sampling, low-Tucker-rank approximation.
result The learned state/action abstractions provide accurate approximations to latent block structures.

We consider a planning problem where the dynamics and rewards of the environment depend on a hidden static parameter referred to as the context. The objective is to learn a strategy that maximizes the accumulated reward across all contexts. The new model, called Contextual Markov Decision Process (CMDP), can model a cu…

2015-02-08abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a framework for quantifying agentic AI model risk using LLM-inferred Bayesian state filters.

problem Quantifying the risk of agentic AI systems due to uncertain beliefs and actions.
method Representing the system as a partially observed Markov decision process with latent states, Bayesian belief updates, control-dependent losses, and tail-risk functionals.
result Develops a rigorous framework for separating uncertainty quantification from risk measurement.

New game design method for better trait inference.

problem Inferring latent psychological traits from human behavior.
method Formulated as a mutual information maximization problem, solved using variational lower bound optimization.
result Designed games successfully distinguish among players with different traits, outperforming traditional methods.

Paper presents an algorithm for optimal regret in communicating Markov decision processes.

problem Achieving optimal regret in Markov decision processes with a communicating assumption.
method The algorithm explicitly tracks the constant K(M) to learn optimally, balancing exploration, co-exploration, and exploitation.
result The algorithm achieves asymptotically optimal regret K(M)log(T)+o(log(T))K(M) \log(T) + \mathrm{o}(\log(T)) for communicating Markov decision processes.

Study optimality in safety-constrained Markov decision processes using asynchronous value iteration and modified Q-learning.

problem Optimality in safety-constrained Markov decision processes with multichain structure.
method Formulated as a zero-sum game, constructed asynchronous value iteration scheme and modified Q-learning algorithm.
result Resolved Bellman's principle of optimality for multichain Markov decision processes and provided learning algorithms.

New algorithms learn in complex decision-making problems with smooth transitions.

problem Learning in complex decision-making problems with smooth transitions.
method UCB and PSRL philosophies applied to episodic Markov decision processes with kernel approximation.
result Low regret learning achieved in continuous state and action spaces.

New algorithm tackles confounding in offline RL for partially observable MDPs.

problem Confounding in offline reinforcement learning for partially observable MDPs.
method P3O algorithm using proximal causal inference and pessimistic confidence regions.
result Achieves n1/2n^{-1/2}-suboptimality for offline RL in POMDPs with confounded data.

A new model validation framework for agentic AI systems based on POMDPs.

problem Model validation of agentic AI systems.
method A POMDP-based framework for belief-state, forecast, and policy validation.
result The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility.

Overview of risk-sensitive Markov decision processes with Optimized Certainty Equivalent.

problem Optimizing decision-making under risk in Markov processes.
method Analyzes risk-sensitive criteria using Optimized Certainty Equivalent, including entropic risk and Conditional Value-at-Risk.
result Conditions for the existence of optimal policies and solution procedures are provided.

Free Random Projection enhances reinforcement learning by naturally incorporating hierarchical structure.

problem Improving reinforcement learning algorithms for better generalization and adaptability.
method Introduces Free Random Projection, a method that uses free probability theory to create random orthogonal matrices encoding hierarchical structure.
result Empirically shows consistent improvement in generalization over standard methods on multi-environment benchmarks.

Algorithm finds safe zones in policy Markov Decision Processes to limit trajectory escape.

problem Finding safe zones in policy Markov Decision Processes to limit trajectory escape.
method Bi-criteria approximation learning algorithm with polynomial sample complexity.
result Achieves almost 2 approximation for both escape probability and safe zone size.

We address the problem of inverse reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes where the agent is risk-sensitive. In particular, we model risk-sensitivity in a reinforcement learning framework by making use of models of human decision-making having their origins in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, an…

2017-03-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian method infers local rules for collective animal movement.

problem Learn local rules governing long-term group behaviors.
method Bayesian Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Linearly-Solvable Markov Decision Process.
result Recover true costs and find value of collective movement.

Enhances count process modelling with Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson process.

problem Count data modelling challenges, especially in complex scenarios.
method Introduces a flexible frequency perturbation measure into Markov-modulated Poisson process framework.
result Natural incorporation of observed event arrivals and latent factors.

The paper tackles batch policy learning in Markov Decision Processes, focusing on average reward maximization.

problem Maximizing long-term average reward in Markov Decision Processes with batch learning.
method Doubly robust estimator for average reward, optimization algorithm for optimal policy, finite-sample regret guarantee.
result The proposed method achieves semiparametric efficiency and provides a finite-sample regret guarantee.

A new method for estimating probabilities and risks using Markov processes.

problem Computational difficulties in classical importance sampling for latent Markov models.
method Proposes a new importance sampling framework that minimizes estimator variance.
result Shows logarithmic efficiency of the proposed estimator.

We propose a new reinforcement learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) based on spectral decomposition methods. While spectral methods have been previously employed for consistent learning of (passive) latent variable models such as hidden Markov models, POMDPs are more challenging…

2016-02-25abs ↗pdf ↗

We develop robust Markov Decision Processes with risk measures for uncertain environments.

problem Uncertainty in Markov Decision Processes and its impact on risk measures.
method Formulation as a Stackelberg game, robust cost and value iterations, existence of optimal policies.
result Existence of deterministic optimal policies for robust optimization and risk measures.

Efficient RL in large POMDPs with latent determinism and embeddings.

problem Efficient reinforcement learning in large-scale POMDPs with latent states and observations.
method Conditional Hilbert space embeddings, linear optimal QQ-function, deterministic latent transitions, gap assumption.
result Computationally and statistically efficient algorithm for exact optimal policy.

Aggregates models from different datasets using shared latent structures.

problem Aggregating models from heterogeneous datasets with shared latent structures.
method Bayesian nonparametrics for identifying correspondences among local model parameterizations.
result Framework successfully aggregates various model types across different applications.

RLMM extends psychometric models to larger tasks.

problem Sequential process data from interactive assessments are not well handled by conventional models.
method RLMM decouples person-level choice sensitivity from task-level value representation through a shared parametric action-value function.
result RLMM achieves higher estimation accuracy and lower runtime than MDP-MM in peg-solitaire simulations and AQUALAB gameplay logs.